Freedman’s Favorite Wednesday NCAA Tournament Prop: Will ASU’s Luguentz Dort Score 17 Points?
Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Arizona State Sun Devils guard Luguentz Dort (0)
- Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring one of his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
- On Wednesday, he looks at the St. John's-Arizona State game (9:10 p.m. ET, truTV) and the points prop for Sun Devils guard Luguentz Dort.
Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
Also follow me in The Action Network app, where each day I post additional, official player prop picks: Today we have nine NBA, four NHL and two NCAA Tournament play-in games.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
302-256-12, +34.64 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 183-146-4, +22.00 Units
- NHL: 65-78-7, -6.66 Units
- Golf: 4-7-1, -2.35 Units
- NASCAR: 5-8-0. -1.70 Units
- NCAAF: 1-1-0. +0.00 Units
- NCAAB: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 23-2-0. +12.64 Units
Freedman’s Favorite Player Prop for St. John’s-Arizona State: Luguentz Dort Over/Under 16.0 Points
- Over 16.0: -115
- Under 16.0: -115
The play-in games for the 2019 NCAA Tournament continue tonight, culminating with St. John’s-Arizona State (9:10 p.m. ET, truTV).
ASU is favored by 2.0 points, and the Sun Devil who most catches my eye is freshman guard Luguentz Dort.
A five-star recruit out of Quebec, the 6-foot-4 Dort leads the team with 16.1 points, 12.7 field-goal attempts, 5.2 3-point attempts and 6.1 free-throw attempts on 31.5 minutes per game. ASU has a few players capable of scoring 20-plus points in any given game, but Dort is the offense’s primary playmaker.
Dort has never played a full game, so I doubt that he gets up to 40 minutes. But this is a must-win game, and in ASU’s Pac-12 semifinal four-point loss to Oregon, Dort played 39 minutes.
In what is likely to be a close game, it’s reasonable to assume that Dort will play more than the 31.5 minutes he sees on average.
In his 15 games with at least 32 minutes, Dort has averaged 19.3 points per game.
And given the urgency of the situation, I think he could play in excess of 35 minutes. In his eight games with 36-plus minutes, Dort has averaged 21.3 points, scoring fewer than 16 points just once.
I’d bet over 16.0 points down to -135.
The Pick: Over 16.0 (-115)