NCAAB Odds, Best Bets: 3 Picks for Wednesday’s Early Games, Including Fresno State vs. Colorado State, Wake Forest vs. Syracuse
Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Colorado State’s John Tonje.
Another day of Championship Week college basketball means another day of early tip-offs for us to bet.
Our staff has bets for the three earliest games of the day: St. Bonaventure vs. Davidson in the A-10 Tournament, Wake Forest vs. Syracuse in the ACC Tournament and Fresno State vs. Colorado State in the Mountain West Tournament.
Check out all three of our best bets for Wednesday's early conference tournament games below.
Wednesday's Early College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball staff is targeting from Wednesday's early conference tournament games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
St. Bonaventure vs. Davidson
Wednesday, March 8 11:30 a.m. ET USA |
Davidson -4 · Under 135.5  |
By PJ Walsh
The second round of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament tips off with No. 9-seed Davidson facing off against 8-seed St. Bonaventure.
In their only meeting so far this season, Davidson bested St. Bonaventure by a score of 74-61, so it’s not surprising to see the Wildcats as 4-point favorites against the Bonnies based on live college basketball odds.
Perhaps this is also influencing the majority of bettors as 78% of spread tickets have come in on Davidson as well.
But from a college basketball betting perspective, what is the smartest way to get down on St. Bonaventure vs. Davidson on Wednesday morning?
Let’s start with the spread. Davidson sits at -4 for today’s game as of the time of writing.
However, this number opened at -3.5 and, according to Action Labs’ Bet Signals, sharps steamed the Wildcats late Tuesday night, pushing this spread out to the current line of -4.
In addition to laying the points with Davidson, pro bettors are also popping the under heading into Wednesday morning’s game.
Our tools have tracked two steam moves on that side of the total, explaining why this line has dipped from 137 to 135.5.
Pick: Davidson -4 · Under 135.5 |
Wake Forest vs. Syracuse
Wednesday, March 8 12 p.m. ET ESPN |
Under 153.5  |
Strangely enough, we get a rematch from four days ago that ended in a convincing nine-point Orange win up in Syracuse.
Wake has a pretty solid zone offense, ranking in the 62nd percentile in PPP against zone. However, the Deacons rank in the 90th percentile in PPP against man, so it’s a surprisingly weird matchup.
Additionally, a lot of Wake’s offense relies on free throws, and the only thing Syracuse does right on defense is not foul (first in ACC in FTR allowed).
So, it’s unsurprising to hear that Wake has lost four of its past five against Syracuse, mostly because it struggles to score despite Tyree Appleby.
I tend to think the totals in these games are set too high. And as expected, four of the past five games between the Deacons and Orange have stayed under the listed total.
Meanwhile, Syracuse’s offense is a complete mess, so that’s not deterring me from betting an under.
Even better, this game is being played on a neutral court at noon local time, which makes me really love this under.
I’ll take a shot on the under 153.5 number available across the market. Meanwhile, the ShotQualityBets’ model makes the total only 149.2.
Pick: Under 153.5 (Play to 150.5) |
Fresno State vs. Colorado State
Wednesday, March 8 2 p.m. ET MW Network |
Under 134.5  |
Mountain West Conference Tournament play begins with the No. 8 seed Colorado State against the No. 9 seed Fresno State.
The Fresno State defense is better than its efficiency numbers suggest because teams have made an absurd rate of 3s against it. The Bulldogs have allowed a 40.9% field goal percentage on 3s in MWC play, which is 2.3% worse than every other defense in the league.
It's not like Fresno State is allowing a particularly high percentage of unguarded jumpers, either. The Bulldogs are 130th nationally in most unguarded jumpers allowed, per Synergy. But teams have a 64.9% effective field goal percentage and are getting 1.3 PPP on those shots. That's compared to an expected 1.08 PPP, per their metric.
Colorado State's defense has fallen off a cliff this season, but it has positive regression coming, too. Teams have made a ton of 3s against the Rams, too. CSU's defense is designed to force shots from the perimeter and ranks top-30 in 3-point attempt rate against.
In this matchup, Fresno is one of the worst perimeter shooting teams in the entire country.
Fresno State wants to grind games down in the half-court and play at a snail's pace. There also won’t be any second-chance opportunities for either offense because both focus on getting back on defense instead of chasing rebounds to prevent transition.
With an early tip-off, lengthy Fresno State possessions and an underrated Fresno defense because of shooting splits, I'm betting the under in the MWC opener at 132.5 or better.
Pick: Under 134.5 (Play to 132.5) |
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