The Michigan Wolverines take on the San Diego State Aztecs in Paradise, NV, as part of the Players Era Festival. Tip-off is set for approximately 10:30 p.m. ET on truTV.
Michigan is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -325. The total is set at 148.5 points.
Here’s my Michigan vs. San Diego State predictions and college basketball picks for November 24, 2025.
Michigan vs San Diego State Prediction
My Pick: Under 149.5
My Michigan vs San Diego State best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan vs. San Diego State Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -112 | 148.5 -112o / -108u | -325 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -108 | 148.5 -112o / -108u | +260 |
- Michigan vs San Diego State spread: Michigan -6.5
- Michigan vs San Diego State over/under: 148.5 points
- Michigan vs San Diego State moneyline: Michigan -325, San Diego State +260
Michigan vs San Diego State College Basketball Betting Preview
Michigan Basketball
Despite making plenty of personnel changes over the summer, this season's Michigan basketball team looks an awful lot like last season's Michigan basketball team.
Since joining the Big Ten, Dusty May has adopted a preferred brand of basketball that relies on positional size, defense and questionable guard play. Whether that third part is by design or by accident remains to be seen.
Structurally, Michigan ranks highly in many of the same categories it thrived in last season, namely dominance at the rim on both ends. This season's Wolverines squad ranks within the top 20 in both 2-point percentage defense and 2-point percentage offense, much like the 2024-25 roster did.
Additionally, this new-look Wolverines squad continues to dominate the offensive boards, rebounding 36% of their misses through four games.
Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin are out, but in their place Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara have given May a frontcourt that's equally as dominant, but possibly even more versatile than the May at Michigan 1.0 version we saw a season ago.
But despite continued success in the paint, the problems Michigan suffered through for much of last season have seemed to remain at point guard.
After ranking 324th nationally in turnover rate a season ago (19.6%), this season's team is also struggling (19.2%) to take care of the ball.
Since opening the season with a brilliant 14-assist, one turnover performance, Elliot Cadeau has logged just nine assists to 13 turnovers in his last three games. That has led to Michigan underperforming in close wins over Wake Forest and TCU.
To make matters worse, it appears Michigan may have downgraded its shooting ability as a team. The Wolverines' 3-point volume is down slightly from last season through five games, but so is Michigan's make percentage (32.7%).
Replacing Tre Donaldson with Cadeau didn't help that category, but more concerningly, starting shooting guard Nimari Burnett is just 4-of-13 through five games (31%) and is visibly slumping.
Michigan has the physical dominance to beat anyone, but until it makes some strides with the turnover problems, the shooting problems, or both, its games can tend to be ugly (as evidenced by two consecutive unders).
San Diego State Basketball
Enter San Diego State — one of the best defenses you'll find in college basketball. You could've copy and pasted that sentence each of the last six seasons and it would still be true. The Aztecs haven't ranked outside of the top 21 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency since 2019.
This season's team is currently 18th nationally, and outside of a disappointing double-overtime loss to Troy, the Aztecs' defense has been downright dominant. San Diego State gave up just 102 points in two wins over Long Beach State and Idaho State to open the season.
San Diego State is experienced — it returns 51% of its minutes from last season, which ranks 19th in the country.
And when you watch San Diego State on defense, you can tell. The Aztecs play as a connected group, and they're disruptive enough to overwhelm a struggling offense in a variety of ways.
San Diego State currently forces a turnover on 23.8% of opposing possessions, good for 11th-best in the sport. The Aztecs also rank within the top 25 in both block and steal rates. No offensive possession is safe until it ends in a shot, and that's easier said than done against San Diego State.
The return of Magoon Gwath makes this team even more dynamic. Gwath was a highly sought after portal recruit who ultimately opted to return to Brian Dutcher, even after programs like Kentucky and Michigan offered him.
The seven-foot, 212-pound Gwath has only played one game this season, but tallied an incredible 20 points on five shot attempts without a miss from the floor.
Issues can arise for San Diego State offensively, and it has a turnover problem in its own right, too. The Aztecs can sometimes get too one-dimensional playing through their superstar Miles Byrd. Against better teams, San Diego State will likely slow things down and try to win the possessions battle.
As mentioned, the Aztecs are coming off a loss to Troy in double overtime (which suddenly doesn't look as bad, given that Troy nearly beat USC two days later).
Give the Aztecs six full days to stew on that loss, and you better believe San Diego State will come out prepared for this game.
Michigan vs. San Diego State Betting Analysis
The matchups on both ends favor an ugly, lower-than-expected scoring game.
Michigan's turnover problem may very well be on full display against the terrifying San Diego State defense.
On the other end of the court, San Diego State relies on offensive rebounds to grind teams down, and those won't be there for the taking against the monstrous Michigan frontcourt.
149.5 points is far too high, and I expect a game in the low 70s at most.
My Pick: Under 149.5
