The Siena Saints play the Merrimack Warriors in the MAAC Tournament final. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Merrimack is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -150. The total is set at 127.5 points.
Here’s my Siena vs. Merrimack predictions and college basketball picks for March 10, 2026.
Siena vs Merrimack Prediction
My Pick: Under 127.5 (Play to 125)
My Siena vs Merrimack best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Siena vs. Merrimack Odds
| Siena Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -112 | 127.5 -108o / -112u | +130 |
| Merrimack Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -108 | 127.5 -108o / -112u | -150 |
- Siena vs Merrimack spread: Merrimack -2.5
- Siena vs Merrimack over/under: 127.5 points
- Siena vs Merrimack moneyline: Siena +130, Merrimack -150
Siena vs Merrimack College Basketball Betting Preview
The MAAC title game between Merrimack and Siena carries real stakes – and a compelling contrast in styles.
For Merrimack, history is on the line. The Warriors won the regular season title by an impressive three games, and they're playing for their first NCAA Tournament bid since transitioning to Division I. They did win the NEC Tournament in 2023, but they weren't yet eligible for the postseason.
Per usual under Joe Gallo, they’ve built their identity through several key pillars: defense, chaos and patience.
Merrimack’s identity starts with its zone, one of the most disruptive schemes in mid-major basketball. The Warriors use it to muck games up, eliminate clean 3-point looks and force opponents into uncomfortable decisions late in possessions.
The backcourt trio of Kevair Kennedy, Tye Dorset and Andres Marrerro constantly generates deflections and attacks passing lanes, fueling a defense that ranks 15th nationally in steal rate, per KenPom. If opponents get loose with the ball, Merrimack turns that aggression into quick transition chances.
Meanwhile, Siena entered the season with arguably the league’s most talented roster, though it hasn’t always looked that way due to circumstances beyond the Saints’ control.
They've dealt with significant losses: Tasman Goodrick has been out since mid-December, and elite athlete Antonio Chandler was lost late in the year.
Even with those setbacks, Siena has still produced the best offense in the MAAC during league play. The Saints take care of the ball and lead the conference in 2-point percentage, a reflection of their ability to generate quality interior looks.
A lot of that offense flows through point guard Justice Shoats, who dictates tempo and consistently puts teammates in scoring position.
He's not much of a shooter; instead, he's one of the most mid-range-reliant guards in the country. Per CBB Analytics, 36.9% of his field goal attempts come in the mid-range, placing him in the 99th percentile nationally.
Merrimack swept the regular-season series, but the margins were razor-thin – and the games were painfully slow. Those contests featured 54 possessions in the first meeting and 63 in the second, a game that went to overtime.
The methodical nature of both meetings feels like the most predictive aspect of the season series.
To me, the side is essentially a coin flip. But with Merrimack’s zone dragging possessions deep into the clock and Siena’s disciplined offense avoiding mistakes, the total stands out more clearly.
The Warriors won’t get many transition chances: They only forced 22 combined turnovers in the two meetings, as Siena’s ball security stood out.
With my expectations of a sub-60 possession game — both based on matchup history and the stakes of the title game — I'll take the under 127.5 points.
I’d lean toward the underdog if you're playing the side, but the total stands out to me more.
I’d bet it down to 125 and will be praying for no overtime.
My Pick: Under 127.5 (Play to 125)
