The SMU Mustangs take on the Cal Bears in Berkeley, California. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
SMU is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -165. The total is set at 162.5 points.
Here’s my SMU vs. Cal predictions and college basketball picks for February 25, 2026.
SMU vs Cal Prediction
My Pick: SMU -3.5
My SMU vs Cal best bet is on the Mustangs to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
SMU vs. Cal Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 162.5 -110 / -110 | -165 |
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 162.5 -110 / -110 | +140 |
- SMU vs Cal spread: SMU -3.5
- SMU vs Cal over/under: 162.5 points
- SMU vs Cal moneyline: SMU -165, California +140
SMU vs Cal College Basketball Betting Preview
SMU Basketball
SMU is in position to make the NCAA Tournament in year two under Andy Enfield, sitting at 19-8 overall and near the top of the league with an 8-6 mark in ACC play.
The Mustangs have won four of their last five games and are coming off back-to-back home wins in which they scored 94 and 95 points.
This is one of the best offenses in the country, ranking 10th on KenPom in adjusted efficiency. SMU loves to run and push the pace and is a really tough cover with its electric backcourt trio.
Boopie Miller is one of the best point guards in the country, averaging 18.7 points and 6.9 assists on 47/41/87 shooting splits. Jaron Pierre Jr. averages 17.6 points per game, while BJ Edwards provides a bit of everything with 13.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists per contest.
Defense has been the limiting factor for SMU this season. The Mustangs rank 13th in the ACC in defensive efficiency during league play and 12th in defensive rebounding rate.
Stylistically, there are some extremes in their defensive profile: A staggering 63% of opponent field goals made are assisted, and 50.3% of opponent field goal attempts come from long range — both the highest rates in the ACC.
Cal Basketball
Cal remains live to receive an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament in year three under Mark Madsen, sitting at 19-8 on the season with a 7-7 mark in the ACC.
The predictive metrics do think this Cal team is a bit fraudulent, however, as the Bears are 66th overall on KenPom and outside the top 70 in efficiency on both sides of the ball. In just ACC play, the Bears are 14th in the league in offensive and 11th in defensive efficiency.
This metric profile exists despite a few quality wins over UCLA, North Carolina and Miami.
Cal has a concentrated scoring attack, with four players averaging 13.7 points or more per game. The Bears are led by a couple of dynamic scoring guards in Dai Dai Ames and Justin Pippen, and they're flanked by veteran shooters on the wing like John Camden and Chris Bell.
A strong suit of this Cal team is its 3-point splits. As a team, it's shooting 38% from deep on the season, while holding opponents to a 30.1% mark from deep.
There's also quite the delta between Cal’s free throw shooting and that of its opponents. The Bears are 17th nationally shooting 77.8% from the line, and they’ve been quite lucky, as opponents are hitting at just a 65.2% clip, the lowest number in the country.
SMU vs. Cal Betting Analysis
It’s worth noting that SMU swept Cal last season, making the Mustangs 2-0 all-time in this storied ACC rivalry.
I want to give Cal a bump for being at home, but its success in league play at Haas Pavilion has mostly come against bottom-half teams, aside from the win over UNC. Louisville won there by 20, Duke by 15 and Clemson by 22.
In my view, SMU belongs in that Louisville/Clemson tier. The Mustangs are extremely difficult to guard with Miller and their explosive scoring guards.
I’m always a bit wary of ACC road teams making the California trip, but when the talent gap is this clear and I don’t see meaningful matchup advantages for Cal, I’m comfortable laying the small number with SMU.
One final note: Traveling from Dallas to the West Coast isn’t as taxing as it is for East Coast teams, and this is leg one of the trip — not leg two — with Stanford waiting on Saturday.
My Pick: SMU -3.5
