NCAAB Pick & Prediction for South Carolina vs Auburn

In the second quarterfinal at the SEC tournament, No. 4 seed Auburn and No. 5 seed South Carolina will meet in Nashville on Friday afternoon.

The Tigers earned the final double-bye just ahead of the Gamecocks because of tiebreaker rules, which gives them the rest advantage. However, South Carolina will benefit from having already played a game at the neutral site, blowing out Arkansas in the second round.

These are two of the SEC’s more physical squads, and I’m expecting a great battle at Bridgestone Arena.

In just his second year with the program, coach Lamont Paris has guided his team to one of the best turnarounds in the country. The SEC Coach of the Year has South Carolina in prime position to make the NCAA Tournament team for the first time since the Final Four squad back in 2017.

The Gamecocks are one of 18 teams in the nation with multiple top-10 victories this season. They are also one of just five teams with a road win against a top-five opponent.

One of the keys to this surprising campaign has been the stout defense. South Carolina has held 25 opponents below 70 points, which leads the SEC and is in the top five nationally.

On the offensive end of the floor, the Gamecocks are spearheaded by the dynamic duo of Meechie Johnson and B.J. Mack. The two entered the tournament averaging 27.9 points, 8.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game.

Veteran coach Bruce Pearl has built another strong team this season at Auburn. The Tigers have 11 seasons in their history of at least 22 wins, and five of those have come during Pearl’s tenure.

Outside of stars on the squad, this is also one of Pearl’s deepest teams. In fact, the Tigers boast a great bench that leads the conference and ranks fourth in the country in bench points per game (34.23 PPG).

Auburn’s bench has outscored its opponent’s bench in all but one contest this season, including the last 24 games.

Meanwhile, the player Pearl hasn’t featured much from the bench has been Johni Broome. The first-team All-SEC big man ranks in the top 10 in the SEC in scoring (16.3 PPG), rebounding (8.5 RPG) and blocks (2.3 BPG).

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While it is typically good to have the rest advantage, I do like to back teams that have already played a game at a neutral site over a team playing its first contest. However, I like to back these spots in the first half of the next round to avoid tired legs later in the matchup.

With that said, I’m looking into the prop market for my play. My best bet is to take South Carolina to win the Race to 10 points at +130 odds at DraftKings, which I would play to +120.

Ironically, the Gamecocks were on the opposite side of this scenario already in this tournament, and Arkansas won the races to 10, 15 and 20 points. South Carolina then stepped it up after halftime once the Razorbacks were tired.

This has also been a profitable play in SEC play with South Carolina. The Gamecocks have been the first squad to 10 points in six of nine road league games and in 12 of 18 conference contests overall.

As for Auburn, the Tigers have a losing record in this race away from home in league play. This is the same team whose best road win in the SEC was either Arkansas or Ole Miss.

South Carolina went on the road for a signature win at Tennessee and closed the regular season with a victory at Mississippi State. I like the Gamecocks to have the better start here, especially at the great price as an underdog.

Pick: South Carolina — Race to 10 (+130)