The St. John's Red Storm take on the UConn Huskies in Hartford, Connecticut. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Peacock.
UConn is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -200. The total is set at 146 points.
Here’s my St. John's vs. UConn prediction and college basketball picks for February 25, 2026.
St. John's vs UConn Prediction
My Pick: Under 146 (Play to 143)
My St. John's vs UConn best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
St. John's vs. UConn Odds
| St. John's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 146 -110 / -110 | +165 |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 146 -110 / -110 | -200 |
- St. John's vs UConn spread: UConn -4.5
- St. John's vs UConn over/under: 146 points
- St. John's vs UConn moneyline: St. John's +165, UConn -200
St. John's vs UConn College Basketball Betting Preview
St. John's Basketball
St. John's is absolutely humming heading into Wednesday’s showdown with UConn. Under Rick Pitino, the Johnnies own the second-longest winning streak in the country (13 games), trailing only undefeated Miami (OH), and they’ve built it on overwhelming two-way control.
Statistically, this is the most complete team in the Big East. St. John’s ranks first in defensive efficiency and second in offensive efficiency in league play, per KenPom, a rare balance that explains the sustained run.
They're 9-4 ATS in that span, though they've only risen three spots (from 25 to 22) in KenPom’s national rankings.
What really separates St. John’s is shot volume. Per CBB Analytics, the Red Storm have taken 73 more field goal attempts and 96 more free throws than conference opponents — a staggering differential in just 16 games.
Among power conference teams, only Houston and Seton Hall boast a better field-goal attempt gap in conference play. They don’t just score efficiently; they generate more chances.
The big lineup has been central to that dominance. Zuby Ejiofor, Dillon Mitchell and Bryce Hopkins give St. John’s length, rebounding and physicality that can overwhelm smaller opponents. On the perimeter, Oziyah Sellers has quietly provided consistency and spacing, stabilizing the perimeter.
The swing factor, though, remains the other guards. If any of Dylan Darling, Ian Jackson or Joson Sanon gives them a real scoring punch on a given night, the ceiling rises dramatically.
Against UConn, that depth and shot volume edge will be tested. But with Pitino’s group defending at an elite level and controlling possession margins, St. John’s enters Wednesday eagerly looking to all but lock up a second straight Big East regular season title.
UConn Basketball
UConn knows exactly what’s at stake Wednesday night. If the Huskies want a realistic path to the Big East title and to stay firmly in the No. 1 seed conversation for March Madness, this game is close to a must-have.
The good news? They’re trending the right way, fresh off a massive road win at Villanova that reasserted their edge and composure in tight spots.
Offensively, UConn has found another gear in league play. The Huskies are the most efficient offense in the Big East, per KenPom, leading the conference in both 2-point percentage and 3-point percentage.
That balance makes them extremely difficult to scheme against, as they can punish you inside or space you out and bomb away.
The consistency has come from lineup stability. UConn has rolled out the same starting five in 14 of the last 15 games, and the continuity shows. A healthy Braylon Mullins has been key, giving the backcourt another reliable scorer, while Alex Karaban looks fully comfortable in his role as a spacer and secondary playmaker.
The linchpin, though, is Silas Demary Jr. He leads the Big East in assist rate and 3-point percentage, an absurd combination for a primary ball-handler. Demary’s decision-making and shooting gravity unlock everything else within the Huskies’ scheme.
Inside, UConn still loves to play through Tarris Reed Jr., who ranks ninth in the league in usage while dominating the glass and protecting the rim. He’s a mountain of a man and excels at sealing off foes for quick finishes. Dan Hurley’s offense does a great job of setting him up with beneficial angles.
If the offense stays this efficient and the core remains healthy, UConn has the firepower – and the urgency – to make this a defining stretch run.
Exacting revenge on the Red Storm is the next step on that journey.
St. John's vs. UConn Betting Analysis
The first meeting at Madison Square Garden was surprisingly controlled by St. John’s nearly the entire way. The Red Storm did so by sticking to their statistical profile: They outrebounded the Huskies 32-26 and won the turnover battle 15-10.
They especially got Demary out of rhythm, as the Huskies’ lead guard coughed it up a staggering nine times by himself.
The Red Storm’s stout frontcourt trio combined for 50 points and 22 boards, controlling the interior and negating Reed’s presence. The Red Storm also took 31 free throws to UConn’s 12. That negated UConn’s advantage from beyond the arc.
That marked St. John’s third straight outright win and fourth consecutive cover against Hurley’s Huskies. Their game plans have been impressive, though Hurley and his high-level staff will surely have some new tricks up their sleeve for the rematch.
This game will be played in Hartford at the People’s Bank Arena, rather than on campus in Storrs. UConn has already played seven games there, going 3-4 ATS. I didn't make any different adjustments for home in my handicap.
I expected the first meeting to go under the total, but UConn’s 3-point shooting (9-of-19, 47.4%) and the Red Storm’s ability to get to the line against UConn’s foul-prone defense doomed that belief.
With a lot of indecision about the side here – I lean to St. John’s if it’s over +5, but I would bet UConn at -4 or better – I'll go back to the well on the under.
With Hurley in the officials’ ears and it being a UConn home game, the Johnnies should take far fewer than 31 free throws. The Huskies’ potent offense is still scary, but Pitino typically does an excellent job mucking the game up and undercutting UConn’s pristine execution.
Give me the under down to 143, which is where the first meeting closed.
My Pick: Under 146 (Play to 143)
