The TCU Horned Frogs take on the Kansas Jayhawks in Lawrence, Kansas. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Kansas is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -340. The total is set at 141.5 points.
Here’s my TCU vs. Kansas prediction and college basketball picks for January 6, 2026.
TCU vs Kansas Prediction
My Pick: Kansas -7.5
My TCU vs Kansas best bet is on the Jayhawks to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
TCU vs. Kansas Odds, Spread
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | +270 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | -340 |
- TCU vs Kansas spread: Kansas -7.5
- TCU vs Kansas over/under: 141.5 points
- TCU vs Kansas moneyline: TCU +270, Kansas -340
TCU vs Kansas NCAAB Betting Preview
TCU Basketball
Let’s look at TCU’s offense: It's up against a tough Kansas defense that holds opponents to a 93.8 adjusted efficiency (top-10 nationally).
TCU shoots 34.2% from 3, but Kansas holds teams to just 25.5% from deep. That’s a big difference and a real challenge for TCU, since it relies on spacing to create driving lanes.
Kansas is also strong inside on defense. TCU makes 53.6% of its 2-point shots, but Kansas holds teams to just 45.7% from that area of the floor and has one of the best block rates in the country (17.5%).
That’s tough for a TCU team that likes to finish through contact, especially since Kansas doesn’t foul much.
Kansas Basketball
Now let’s look at what happens when Kansas is on offense. It's 54th in adjusted efficiency — well above the Division I average — and it's facing a TCU defense that ranks inside the top 20.
Kansas doesn’t need to play fast to score; its possession length is about average, but it's very efficient in running its sets.
The main advantage is in shot quality. Kansas has a 53.3% adjusted field goal efficiency, which is important against a stingy TCU defense.
Kansas also assists on over 57% of its made shots, which is important against a TCU defense that struggles to limit successful ball movement. That ball movement will be even more effective at home.
Kansas is great at limiting good shots, allowing only a 42.5% effective field goal percentage. It contests shots well at the rim and from 3.
TCU vs. Kansas Betting Analysis
The Jayhawks are near the bottom nationally in opponent free-throw rate, so they don’t give up many easy points. That'll make it tough for TCU to score all night consistently.
The situation matters here as well. Kansas is coming off a tough loss at UCF, and teams coached by Self usually respond with strong, defense-first games after a defeat.
Kansas also has a size advantage and a deeper bench, and now faces TCU at Allen Fieldhouse, where it usually plays even better. TCU is a solid team, but it struggles to recover from poor shooting or long scoring droughts against top defenses.
When you combine Kansas’ offensive efficiency, its elite shot suppression on defense and the buy-low spot after a road loss, this sets up as a game where the Jayhawks will gradually pull away. It may stay competitive early, but over 40 minutes, Kansas’ execution and defense should win out comfortably.
The numbers also support this matchup against TCU, so I feel good about taking Kansas at -7.5. Jamie Dixon is a great coach, but I trust Kansas much more after a loss in what should be an inspired effort.
My Pick: Kansas -7.5
