The Texas Longhorns take on the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington, KY. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Kentucky is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -350. The total is set at 155.5 points.
Here’s my Texas vs. Kentucky predictions and college basketball picks for January 21, 2026.
Texas vs Kentucky Prediction
My Pick: Kentucky -6.5 (Play to -8.5)
My Texas vs Kentucky best bet is on the Wildcats to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Texas vs. Kentucky Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 155.5 -110o / -110u | +275 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 155.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
- Texas vs Kentucky spread: Kentucky -6.5
- Texas vs Kentucky over/under: 155.5 points
- Texas vs Kentucky moneyline: Texas +275, Kentucky -350
Texas vs Kentucky College Basketball Betting Preview
Texas Basketball
Sean Miller has a team in year one in Austin that's capable of reaching the NCAA Tournament. The Longhorns did fall to Texas A&M 74-70 on Saturday, but they secured two massive Quad 1 wins a week ago, on the road at Alabama and at home against Vanderbilt.
Texas is a physical, athletic, offense-first group. No team in the country draws fouls at a higher rate, and big man Matas Vokietaitis draws fouls better than any individual player in the nation.
Dailyn Swain and Tramon Mark give Texas two veteran ball handlers who excel at attacking downhill and consistently put pressure on the rim. Jordan Pope has provided a steadying presence at the point, taking elite care of the basketball while also serving as the team’s best 3-point shooter.
Texas checks in 17th nationally in offensive efficiency on KenPom, but it's just 100th on the defensive end.
Despite having strong on-ball defenders like Swain, Mark and Chendall Weaver, this group struggles to create takeaways, ranking in the bottom 50 nationally in defensive turnover rate.
That lack of disruption is compounded by limited rim protection from Vokietaitis and backup five Lassina Traore, as Texas sits second to last in the SEC in block rate.
Kentucky Basketball
It's been quite the drama-filled season of hoops in Lexington. Luckily for Mark Pope and the Kentucky faithful, last week was filled with positive drama.
The Wildcats stole two games on the road, as Malachi Moreno’s buzzer-beater lifted them over LSU by one and Otega Oweh’s late-game heroics helped them take down Tennessee after trailing for the entire game. Kentucky has now won three straight games and is 12-6 on the season.
Winning fixes everything, and at the very least, this team is starting to play really hard, although there's a valid reason to still have concerns considering how fortunate they were in late-game situations.
The Cats are ranked 24th on KenPom, with a top-32 efficiency on both ends of the floor. Perhaps the biggest positive from the past week and a half comes from improved 3-point shooting.
Kentucky has shot 40% or better from beyond the arc in each of its last three games, getting efficient performances from Denzel Aberdeen, Otega Oweh and Collin Chandler.
Defensively, while the Cats rank 14th in the SEC in opponent effective field goal percentage in league play at 55.8%, this group has been super disruptive, posting the second-best turnover rate in the conference.
One of the main pain points during Kentucky’s early-season struggles was the health of Jaland Lowe and Jayden Quaintance. Now, Lowe has been ruled out for the season, and Quaintance reportedly may not return either.
Luckily for Pope, he still has a roster that can go nine or 10 deep, thanks to the reported $22M NIL investment in this team.
Texas vs. Kentucky Betting Analysis
Kentucky has new life following its late-game heroics from last week. Can it keep this thing rolling?
Looking at this matchup, what stands out to me is how many good athletes are on the floor. Both of these teams typically have a clear advantage in that realm, so seeing them clash will be interesting.
The Longhorns are at their best, in my opinion, when they're riding Vokietaitis. When he has it rolling, dominating on the interior and getting opposing bigs in foul trouble, Texas looks really good.
Kentucky is a bad matchup for the Longhorns in that sense, because even without Quaintance, it has a deep team with strong frontcourt bodies like Moreno, Brandon Garrison, Mo Dioubate and Andrija Jelavic.
I'll take the Cats to keep it rolling at Rupp.
My Pick: Kentucky -6.5 (Play to -8.5)
