The Texas Tech Red Raiders take on the Baylor Bears in Waco, Texas. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Texas Tech is favored by 2 points on the spread with a moneyline of -150. The total is set at 155.5 points.
Here are my Texas Tech vs. Baylor predictions and college basketball picks for January 20, 2026.
Texas Tech vs Baylor Prediction
My Pick: Texas Tech -2
My Texas Tech vs Baylor best bet is on the Red Raiders to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Texas Tech vs. Baylor Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -105 | 155.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -115 | 155.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
- Texas Tech vs Baylor spread: Texas Tech -2
- Texas Tech vs Baylor over/under: 155.5 points
- Texas Tech vs Baylor moneyline: Texas Tech -150, Baylor +125
Texas Tech vs Baylor College Basketball Betting Preview
Texas Tech Basketball
Texas Tech continues to soar under Grant McCasland, quietly turning into one of the most dangerous teams in the Big 12 year after year. The Red Raiders have won seven of their last eight games, capped by an authoritative weekend win over BYU that further validated their recent surge.
This is a group playing with confidence, clarity and an identity that’s becoming harder to disrupt.
What makes the run even more impressive is how thin the rotation has become. Against BYU, Christian Anderson and JT Toppin both played all 40 minutes, while the entire bench logged just 11 total minutes.
That’s a risky formula long-term, but having two elite talents like Anderson and Toppin make it viable. The duo combined for 49 points, 16 rebounds and seven assists in the weekend win over the Cougars, and both guys are playing like legitimate All-Americans.
Around those two, Tech’s lineup fits together like a glove. The spacing and balance are excellent. Donovan Atwell is lethal from deep, stretching defenses well beyond the arc with his smooth southpaw stroke.
LeJuan Watts fills every gap, bringing rebounding and facilitating while defending multiple positions, and freshman guard Jaylen Petty has emerged as a reliable, high-impact contributor on both ends.
The lack of depth does show up defensively. Texas Tech has been forced into a more conservative approach, ranking last in Big 12 play in steal rate, prioritizing containment over chaos.
Still, with elite top-end talent and lineups that complement each other seamlessly, this version of the Red Raiders is built to win tough games, though the margin for error is thinner than most contenders’.
Baylor Basketball
Baylor has found itself in a precarious spot. The Bears have opened Big 12 play just 1-4, and for a program accustomed to living comfortably in the national picture, the trajectory is alarming.
The conference provides little respite, but it also presents opportunities to claim key victories. Unfortunately, Baylor is trending the wrong way as league play progresses.
The Bears have had defensive issues all season, and those shortcomings have only been magnified in conference play. Baylor has struggled badly on the defensive glass and remains one of the least disruptive teams in the league, failing to generate turnovers at a meaningful rate.
The interior has been especially problematic. Former NBA G-Leaguer James Nnaji became a massive storyline when he joined the Bears, but he's yet to provide the defensive anchor Baylor hoped for.
The season-ending loss of Juslin Bodo Bodo has stripped the frontcourt of both physicality and athleticism. Too often, opponents are finishing possessions cleanly and dictating terms inside.
What’s shocking is that the offense, which has long Baylor’s safety net under Scott Drew, hasn’t been able to compensate.
The Bears still feature dangerous, versatile wings in Cam Carr and Tounde Yessoufou, and the raw shot-making talent remains evident. Yet in league play, Baylor ranks last in the Big 12 in points per possession, while also sitting at the bottom in turnover rate and 2-point percentage.
Context matters: Matchups against Iowa State, Houston and Kansas – three elite defensive units – have absolutely skewed the numbers. Still, even accounting for schedule strength, the offensive slippage is notable.
When Baylor isn’t forcing turnovers or rebounding defensively, squeezing out wins becomes a huge challenge.
Unless one side of the ball stabilizes quickly, the Bears’ NCAA Tournament hopes could be in serious jeopardy.
Texas Tech vs. Baylor Betting Analysis
I’m laying the short number with Texas Tech -2. The matchup sets up cleanly for Tech, starting with Toppin, who's playing at an absurdly high level right now. He's a terror of physicality and activity inside, finishing everything around the rim and impacting possessions defensively.
Baylor simply doesn’t have the personnel to slow him down consistently, especially given its season-long issues on the defensive glass and at the rim.
Notably, there’s a ton of familiarity on the sidelines here. Texas Tech’s McCasland knows Baylor’s tendencies as well as anyone after spending five seasons on Drew’s staff from 2011-16. That familiarity matters in a game where execution, matchups and half-court adjustments are likely to decide things late.
Matchup-wise, Baylor isn’t the type of opponent that meaningfully stress-tests Texas Tech’s lack of depth. The Bears play slowly, ranking 14th of 16 teams in the Big 12 in pace, and they don’t consistently pressure the rim or live at the free-throw line.
That minimizes the risk of foul trouble and allows Tech to comfortably lean on its core rotation without chaos entering the game.
Yes, the situational angle slightly favors Baylor as a desperate home team. But that's only one variable, and right now, Texas Tech is a markedly better basketball team.
The Red Raiders have the best player in the game, and the fit of the group around him will be difficult for Baylor’s leaky defense to contain.
I’ll trust the Red Raiders to get it done on the road.
My Pick: Texas Tech -2
