The 2026 NCAA Tournament is officially here!
If you're looking for some help in your bracket pool, Three Man Weave — Jim Root, Ky McKeon and Matthew Cox — has consensus picks on every single game. Read below for our complete 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket.
Below our official picks, each writeup comes from the writer who disagreed with the majority.
East Region: First Round
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No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 TCU
By: Ky McKeon
Bruce Thornton is going to have a heyday against TCU. The star Buckeyes guard lives in the lane, where his pull-up is one of the best signature moves in college basketball.
He’s a major reason Ohio State leads the country in field goal percentage in the paint, and he’ll expose TCU’s soft middle all game long.
The Horned Frogs' guards are tiny, and Thornton should have no trouble bullying them into the paint.
On the other end, TCU’s offense can’t overly exploit a so-so Ohio State defense. The Frogs need to score ugly (glass of foul line), and the Buckeyes have the size edge and plenty of experience against bigger and badder Big Ten frontlines.
East Region: Round of 32
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No. 11 USF vs. No. 3 Michigan State
By: Matt Cox
Jeremy Fears Jr. has been nothing short of magnificent this season, but the Bulls’ shotmaking southpaw Wes Enis is capable of playing Fears to at least a stalemate in a 40-minute game.
Enis has emerged as a two-way weapon at the point of attack, and he's one of multiple rangy guards and wings with enough size, length and agility to corral Fears in space, should this matchup manifest in the Round of 32.
On the other end, Michigan State’s perimeter defense is good, but not great, and the rim-and-3 thirsty Bulls may find enough drive-and-kick real estate to generate open looks from distance.
The real schematic chess match would come down to the frontline: Michigan State’s towering bruisers against matrix-esque monster Izaiyah Nelson. If Nelson can invert the Sparty bigs offensively while staying out of foul trouble defensively, the Bulls should be able to prevent an offensive rebounding onslaught.
USF hasn’t seen many traditional post-driven offense to date, but with Nelson and overqualified backup Daimion Collins, this doesn’t feel like a daunting mismatch in the paint.
No. 10 UCLA vs. No. 2 UConn
By: Jim Root
It sounds like Donovan Dent is full go, and Tyler Bilodeau should be back to near full strength for this one. That gives the Bruins a real shot here in what should be a half-court slog.
Dent’s absurd playmaking of late – 78 assists to six turnovers in his last eight games – should shine against a UConn defense that can be reliant on Tarris Reed Jr. to clean things up at the rim.
Plus, I love the wing shooting duo of Skyy Clark and Trent Perry.
The Huskies are a scary fade in March, but I don't buy that this version is quite on the level of the 2023 and 2024 squads.
I worry about UConn’s elite ball movement and the fact that this game would be in front of a massively pro-UConn crowd in Philly, but UCLA showed enough at the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago for me to believe a postseason run is possible.
East Region: Sweet 16
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No. 1 Duke vs. No. 5 St. John's
By: Ky McKeon
Even without Caleb Foster and (maybe) big Patrick Ngongba II, Duke is the best team in the country. Freshman phenom Cam Boozer is putting up one of the best seasons of college basketball we’ve ever seen, and even against a stout Johnnies frontline, he’ll dominate this game.
The Blue Devils can rest big Pat against Siena and TCU/Ohio State, leaving the odds for him returning in this game that much higher.
St. John’s lack of shooting will destroy it in this contest, as Duke is too good on the glass and is too good defending without fouling to allow easy buckets.
The key for the Devils will be handling the Johnnies' ball pressure and physicality in the backcourt. It’s a tall ask for Cayden Boozer, but Isaiah Evans is a game breaker, and Cam Boozer can act as a primary creator in the half-court.
Duke marches on.
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Michigan State
By: Matt Cox
The advanced data splits, per Synergy, illuminate a glaring concern for Sparty on the defensive end, where it's been torched from behind the arc in the last three games heading into this tournament.
It's a small sample, sure, but UConn’s myriad of off-ball sets pose a serious challenge for this dicey off-ball Michigan State defense.
Per Synergy, Michigan State was 345th in defensive efficiency guarding off-ball screening action, which is the foundation of Dan Hurley and his staff’s playbook.
The Huskies are a capable ball-screen offense as well, an added dimension to this year’s multiple offensive attack, and Michigan State — while effective at punishing pick-and-roll handlers most of the season — has looked shaky in this regard coming down the stretch.
East Region: Elite Eight
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No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 5 St. John's
By: Matt Cox
St. John’s needs the glass to win ball games, and that’s just not an option against the best defensive rebounding team in the country. And good luck scoring at the rim against the Spartans, who rank eighth nationally in field goal attempt rate allowed near the cup, per CBB Analytics.
Tom Izzo will cut off the water to St. John’s primary method of scoring, immediately turning this game into a bare knuckle boxing match.
The Johnnies can certainly bother Sparty with their backcourt size and pressure, but Michigan State has the best player on the floor in Fears.
Great guards and great coaches win in March. Sparty checks both boxes on top of being the most disciplined team in the nation.
South Region: First Round
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No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Iowa
By: Ky McKeon
This is my “unsexy” pick. I feel like the world will skew towards Iowa and the allure of Ben McCollum, but Brad Brownell is a sneaky great coach too.
No Carter Welling certainly hurts for the Tigers, but they are the tougher team in this matchup and more importantly they handle the rock well (key against Iowa, which turns teams over).
Clemson is also excellent defending one-on-one, and Iowa basically hands the ball to Bennett Stirtz on offense and tells him to go nuts.
Athleticism and quickness edges favor Clemson. Unsexy is the new sexy.
No. 13 Troy vs. No. 4 Nebraska
By: Matt Cox
Built on Scott Cross’ Waffle House-tough recruiting philosophy, the Trojans draw a much better matchup in the first round than the pro-littered Kentucky Wildcats last year.
Nebraska’s fairytale season is at risk of a premature ending if it starts out cold, and the Huskers are no stranger to slow starts. In three semi close calls against mid-majors this season (Winthrop, USC Upstate and North Dakota) — all of which were either leading or within a possession at half time — Nebraska had to rally late to overcome an early shooting slump.
Troy is not only better than those three teams but proven giant killers, as seen in its double-overtime win at San Diego State followed by a buzzer-beating triple overtime loss to full-strength USC.
Troy’s outside shooting is streaky but if the Campbell bros catch fire, this one could get interesting.
No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 UNC
By: Jim Root
UNC is struggling badly without Caleb Wilson. Per Haslametrics, the Tar Heels rank 350th in Momentum, and they are also 364th in the site’s "Away From Home" metric.
Even in front of a pro-UNC crowd in Greenville, I think the Heels are not the same team outside of Chapel Hill. On the other side is red hot VCU, which has won 16 of its last 17 and has trended way up since re-inserting Tyrell Ward into the rotation.
VCU has the frontcourt size to compete with UNC around the rim, and I think volcanic sixth-man scorer Terrence Hill Jr. can scorch UNC’s drop coverage on the offensive end.
No. 7 Saint Mary's vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
By: Jim Root
This matchup has some edges on both sides. Saint Mary’s has struggled badly away from home (359th in Away From Home ranking, per Haslametrics), and the Gaels got clobbered the one other time they saw an SEC squad (Vandy at the Battle 4 Atlantis).
On the other hand, Texas A&M is not playing all that well lately, and the Aggies could get crushed on the boards by a giant and physical Saint Mary’s frontcourt.
I’m riding with the Gaels because of that glass advantage and my expectation that Randy Bennett will have his ball-handlers more prepared for this matchup than the no-rest turnaround against Vandy.
South Region: Round of 32
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South Region: Sweet 16
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No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Houston
By: Jim Root
Yes, this is a quasi-road game for the Illini in Houston. But I think Brad Underwood’s team can present some real issues for Houston.
The Illini are huge, which should limit rim scoring and offensive rebounding. The Cougars are content to live in the mid-range, and those shots will be available for Kingston Flemings against Illinois’ defensive structure.
But Illinois’ more analytically sound attack can shoot over the top of Houston’s athletic defense, and the towering Illini frontcourt will also have an edge scooping up offensive boards.
So long as Keaton Wagler can handle Houston’s trapping on ball screens, the Illini can win this one.
South Region: Elite Eight
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No. 1 Florida vs. No. 2 Houston
By: Matt Cox
A rematch of the 2025 title game? Iconic. Houston won the shot volume battle in last year’s war, but the insane Gator shotmaking was the separator down the stretch.
This season, the Cougars’ identity has evolved into a more dynamic, potent perimeter scoring team, at the expense of a less dominant post presence. That’s actually preferred should they see Florida, which boasts the best frontline fortress in college basketball.
However, Florida could flip the shot volume edge back in its favor in this rerun. The Gators’ guards, while dicey shooters, are elite ball handlers.
Houston’s notorious ball pressure is generating turnovers at a high clip again this season, but the splits between quality opponents and lesser opponents is stark. Per CBBAnalytics, the Cougars’ defensive turnover rate in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games is 16%, compared to 25% against Quad 3 and Quad 4.
Look no further than Houston’s three-game skid in February. Against the cream of the crop — Iowa State, Arizona and Kansas — Houston only forced 20 turnovers.
If Florida can assert its will on the glass and eliminate any live ball turnovers, the Gators could have a notable shot volume edge.
Barring a Kingston Flemings explosion, Florida profiles as the more reliable possession pick in this matchup.
West Region: First Round
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No. 9 Utah State vs. No. 8 Villanova
By: Matt Cox
Enough with the Mountain West slander. The league’s well documented foibles in the Big Dance — while not entirely excusable — are somewhat skewed by unfavorable placement and scheduling.
The committee has been more cognizant to place the west coast teams in more favorable geographical locations at more reasonable time slots. Such is the case in this draw, as Utah State will square off with east-coast based Villanova at San Diego State’s esteemed Viejas Arena, where Jerrod Calhoun and this Utah State nucleus has already played multiple times over the last two years.
Situational context aside, the absence of Matt Hodge could prove to be a crippling loss to Villanova in this matchup, especially if Calhoun chooses to play zone for a majority of the game.
Nova has multiple long range snipers capable of busting the zone, but Hodge’s unique combination of size and shooting at the 4 position would’ve been a key chess piece in Kevin Willard’s gameplan.
That said, it’s hard to see Willard totally stupified by Calhoun’s unique "fist" zone, which was actually invented by Willard’s father, Ralph, another branch of the Rick Pitino coaching tree.
No. 7 Miami (FL) vs. No. 10 Missouri
By: Jim Root
Perhaps this is simply me emotionally hedging against my alma mater. I likely need a couple sessions with a therapist to fully unravel that knot.
Matchup-wise, I think Mizzou struggles on the glass here against a massive and physical Hurricanes frontcourt led by Malik Reneau and Ernest Udeh Jr.
Plus, former Mizzou assistant CY Young is on staff at Miami, and he can help game plan against his former boss in Dennis Gates.
The Tigers could gain an edge if they turn Miami into a jump shooting team, and Gates will mix in some zone looks, but I trust Miami’s Tre Donaldson to be the best guard on the floor here.
That’s enough for the Hurricanes to squeak out a close one between two big, athletic squads.
West Region: Round of 32
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No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 5 Wisconsin
By: Ky McKeon
The Hogs are playing their best basketball right now, fresh off an SEC Tournament title. Darius Acuff Jr. has fully ascended into one of the premier players in the country and a likely top-five pick in the NBA draft.
To beat Arkansas, you have to be able to guard the ball and stop the dribble. Per Synergy, Wisconsin grades out as a below average ball-screen defense and poor isolation defense.
Acuff and fellow freshman Meleek Thomas are going to destroy the Badgers off the bounce.
Wisconsin does have an excellent transition defense, but Arkansas’ attack is even better. Per Synergy, the Hogs rank third nationally in PPP in the open floor.
The athleticism and talent edge should push Arkansas over the top and into the Sweet 16.
West Region: Sweet 16
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No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 3 Gonzaga
By: Matt Cox
At first glance, Gonzaga’s sterling crop of wing attackers, spearheaded by Tyon Grant-Foster, Jalen Warley and the ascending Davis Fogle, should prey on Purdue’s well documented deficiencies defending athletic wing prototypes.
However, the Zags’ offense is one rooted in inside-out post play (with Graham Ike as the catalyst), as well as constant movement and cutting off the ball.
In other words, the Zags’ wings are often slotted in isolation or pick-and-roll initiator roles, which is where Purdue has been exploited by numerous Big Ten opponents.
Perhaps Mark Few will have a few tricks up his sleeve and tweak his traditional offensive game plan to apply pressure on Purdue's defensive soft spots, but if you allow the Boilers to play their game without resistance, good luck keeping pace with that surgical offense.
My only concern is, ironically, Purdue’s post defense, which has been shockingly mediocre throughout the season. However, Matt Painter will double those post touches and force Ike to find shooters on the perimeter. Frankly, this game may boil down to Gonzaga’s ability to make outside shots
West Region: Elite Eight
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Midwest Region: First Round
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No. 12 Akron vs. No. 5 Texas Tech
By: Ky McKeon
We have to take a shot at a 12/5 upset somewhere, so it might as well be the most likely one.
Without JT Toppin, Texas Tech loses its ability to completely overwhelm Akron with size. The Zips are one of the smallest teams in the country, but the post is not how Texas Tech beats its foes after its star player went down.
Instead, this game will be a 3-point shooting contest between Tech, the No. 5 3-point field goal percentage squad in the land, and Akron, the No. 14 3-point field goal percentage team in the land.
Lots of 3s means lots of variance, and that’s what leads to Cinderellas breaking through.
Akron guard Tavari Johnson is completely capable of going toe-to-toe with power players, and John Groce is no stranger to the tournament. Akron shocks the world and finally gets to the second round under Groce after an 0-3 start.
No. 13 Hofstra vs. No. 4 Alabama
By: Jim Root
The Pride are my big first round upset pick. They have tremendous giant killer DNA. They slow the game down, they attack the offensive glass and they have lethal perimeter shooters who can get hot.
I also love their defensive structure against the Tide. Hofstra forces a ton of mid-range jumpers and does not give up rim attempts thanks to a massive center duo of Silas Sunday and Victory Onuetu.
That means Alabama is going to try and force up tough 3s, and with Aden Holloway unlikely to participate in this one, those jumpers may not go in with enough frequency.
If this boils down to a guard duel, Hofstra’s Cruz Davis and Preston Edmead can give Labaron Philon Jr. a real run for his money.
Midwest Region: Round of 32
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No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Alabama
By: Jim Root
No JT Toppin is certainly an issue, but Texas Tech won at Iowa State without him on the strength of its backcourt: Christian Anderson, Jaylen Petty and Donovan Atwell.
Alabama is loaded with guards, but the Tide appear very unlikely to have Aden Holloway for this one, who was arrested Monday morning with a pound of marijuana in his possession.
That removes arguably the Tide’s best shooter, and their offense will need to make 3s against Texas Tech’s drop coverage.
Neither team forces turnovers, and this will be a high-variance matchup because of the volume of 3s likely to be launched on both sides.
Without Holloway, I like Tech’s shooting more than the Tide’s.
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Virginia
By: Ky McKeon
I don’t have a ton of conviction on this one, but I just think Tennessee waxes Virginia on the glass. The Vols are the nation’s No. 1 offensive rebounding team and Virginia ranks 124th in defensive rebounding rate despite solid size.
I’m also skeptical of Virginia’s ability to beat elite teams. The Hoos took down Louisville, but aside from that, their wins are pretty pedestrian.
Among those teams in the field, they’ve beaten Texas (11 seed), NC State (11), Louisville (6), SMU (11), Ohio State (8) and Miami (FL) (7). It’s a shrug.
The Vols took down Houston, that same Louisville team, Alabama and Vandy among others. Give me Rick Barnes getting to his fourth straight Sweet 16.
Midwest Region: Sweet 16
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No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 2 Iowa State
By: Jim Root
Virginia doesn't have a win over a top-30 team, per KenPom. Yes, I'm concerned about the ceiling of a team that comes up a little short in the athleticism department.
They have outstanding size, though, and Johann Grunloh, Ugonna Onyenso and Thijs De Ridder can get after the offensive glass against Iowa State, which is often a little over-extended while pressuring the ball.
I also like the Cavs’ centers to frustrate former Virginia big man Blake Buchanan in a potential revenge spot.
Speaking of pressure, the Cavaliers could have issues against the Cyclones’ frenetic defenders, but when they take care of it, they should get open shots for their perimeter weapons.
Midwest Region: Elite Eight
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No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 1 Michigan
By: Jim Root
I'm taking a swing here with the Cyclones. Iowa State’s Big 12 Tournament performance against Arizona gives me some hope here, as T.J. Otzelberger’s squad took it down to the wire against another top-seeded team despite Arizona shooting uncharacteristically well from 3-point range.
Iowa State even outrebounded the towering Wildcats in that game.
The big edge here would be the Cyclones’ ability to generate steals, as Michigan has a tendency to make high-risk passes that lead to turnovers. In that vein, this would be a matchup where Michigan would miss L.J. Cason’s dynamism in the backcourt, because Tamin Lipsey and Killyan Toure could force Elliot Cadeau into a bad day.
Milan Momcilovic’s shooting from the 3 spot could also negate Yaxel Lendeborg’s roaming on defense, or it would force Dusty May to play smaller and more conventionally for long stretches.
Final Four
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No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 1 Michigan
By: Jim Root
First of all, I’m salivating at the idea of this matchup.
Motiejus Krivas vs. Aday Mara at center. Koa Peat vs. Morez Johnson Jr., Yaxel Lendeborg vs. the wildly competitive Ivan Kharchenkov.
The war in the paint would leave both teams battered and bruised; neither team has encountered a foe that can truly match its size at the 3 through 5 spots.
Oh, and I love that Arizona can send in Tobe Awaka as a battering ram if the Wolverines’ big men get tired at all.
Lendeborg gives Michigan a slight edge up front, but I love Arizona’s backcourt here. Jaden Bradley is going to make Elliot Cadeau’s life miserable with his terrific ball pressure, and Brayden Burries might actually be the best guard on the floor.
I wish Arizona pressured the ball more to take advantage of Michigan’s occasional turnover woes, but the Wolverines might cough it up regardless.
The best way to beat Michigan is over the top of the defense. That is not Arizona’s game, admittedly. But on the flip side, I do not think Michigan has easy ways to score against the Wildcats’ elite interior defense.
This is a clash of the titans on the sport’s biggest stage, but I’m of the belief that Arizona is (narrowly) the better team.
2026 National Championship
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