NCAAB Odds, Pick for UCLA vs Washington State

The Washington State Cougars and UCLA Bruins are two of the elite defensive teams in the Pac-12. This will be a rock fight, but which side will be left standing?

Calling UCLA’s tempo deliberate is kind. The Bruins play slower than words can quantify and have a bottom-10 tempo in the sport. However, that slow tempo is out of necessity as the offense lacks scoring fire power. The offense ranks 176th in offensive efficiency and shoots only 45% from 2 and 31% from 3.

The two best aspects of UCLA’s offense are Adem Bona's offensive rebounding, which often creates a quick bucket, and getting to the free-throw line as UCLA is top 100 in free-throw attempts. Bona is a real interior force and is averaging 12 points and six rebounds per contest.

While Bona is key, UCLA also needs scoring from guards Sebastian Mack and Lazar Stefanovic. A freshman from Las Vegas, Mack is playing more than coach Mick Cronin likely imagined. Mack is playing around 28 minutes per game and attempts over five free throws per game. UCLA’s best pure shooter is Stefanovic, who’s shooting over 36% from 3 during conference play. The Utah transfer struggled in non-conference play, but found his form as UCLA surged in Pac-12 play.

The issue with having an elite defense and poor offense? Eventually, the defense will have an off night and the offense will be unable to pick up the slack. That’s what happened on Thursday against Washington, as the Bruins surrendered 94 points in a disappointing loss, their third-straight defeat.

Washington State, with three games left to play, is only a half game behind Arizona in the Pac-12 race. The Cougars' conference title chances nearly evaporated on Thursday as USC led deep into the second half. USC scored over 1.07 PPP against the Cougars dominant defense, but Washington State pulled out the win.

The Cougars offense features balanced scoring as four scorers average double-digits points. Point guard Myles Rice, who makes moves with savvy ball handling, is joined by Isaac Jones in the 15-point-per-game club. Jones uses his 6'9", 245-pound frame to back down opposing bigs and finish with soft touch at the hoop.

Washington State's defense is phenomenal at contesting shots and limits opponents to 46% shooting from 2-point range and 32% from 3-point range. Washington State’s size (second tallest average height in college basketball) causes problems for teams driving to the hoop.

The one thing Washington State doesn’t do well — or often — is shoot the 3. Washington State only shoots 3s on 31% of its field-goal attempts and Jaylen Wells is the only starter shooting above 36% from deep. Perhaps the strong game against USC from freshman guard Isaiah Watts (18 points, five made 3s) will earn him more minutes and put another shooter in the mix.

Although both teams operate as a snail's pace, the Over/Under of 126.5 is pretty low. Washington State regularly plays in the 70-point range, and UCLA is comfortable in the 65-70 range. Even if Washington State and UCLA only sneak into the high 60s, that'll be good enough for the over.

Pick: Over 126 (Play to 128)