North Carolina vs NC State Odds, Pick & Prediction

There have been plenty of storybook runs in conference tournaments over the years, but I don't think any would top NC State in '24 if the Wolfpack can get one more victory on Saturday.

That's for a combination of reasons, but here are the main ones.

NC State is playing its fifth game in as many days on Saturday — no team has ever won the ACC tournament having to begin play on Tuesday and win five times.

The run has had its fair share of dramatics, most notably last night in the win over Virginia.

The Pack looked absolutely left for dead before a missed free throw with five seconds left gave them one final chance, and Michael O'Connell proceeded to bank in a 3 at the horn to force overtime, where NCSU prevailed.

Lastly, the run would include a win over Duke in the quarterfinals and North Carolina in the title game, NC State's two biggest rivals and the blue bloods of the conference.

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Now, let's get into Saturday night.

The Tar Heels have opened as an 8.5-point favorite, which makes sense given their talent edge as well as the potential fatigue factor for the Wolfpack.

These two teams met twice in the regular season, with UNC winning by 13 in Raleigh back in January and by nine at home two weeks ago.

I watched most of that second matchup in Chapel Hill, and despite the final score, NCSU was right there for much of that game.

When it comes to finding betting value in this game, given the wild circumstances, it's hard to put too much emphasis on metrics versus looking at some of the intangible factors.

I don't buy all that much into the fatigue narrative for the Pack. These are 18-22 year old kids playing for a championship and a chance to go to the Big Dance.

Kevin Keatts' team should have plenty of adrenaline on its side, and they'll have all hands on deck for this one.

North Carolina is obviously playing at a very high level right now and has plenty of motivation of its own — a chance to win its first ACC tournament since 2016 and secure the final one seed in the NCAA tournament.

While the Tar Heels have some advantages on both ends, NCSU has a newfound confidence in Washington DC, and all seven rotation players are performing at a high level.

It's not hyperbolic to say that North Carolina State is playing its best basketball of the season right now.

Ultimately, it's just really hard for me to envision anything but the Wolfpack once again laying it all on the line out there and putting forth another solid effort.

With that in mind, I anticipate another tight game that comes right down to the final minutes.

Momentum is contagious, and right now, it's firmly with the team in red and black.

If Carolina comes out and lights it up, I'll gladly tip my cap, but right now, I'm not messing with Uncle Mo.

Give me the Pack and the points in what should be a really fun title game in Capital One Arena.

Pick: NC State +10 (Play to +8.5)