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The USC Trojans take on the Cal Golden Bears in Berkeley, CA. Tip-off is set for 11 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
- is favored by – points on the spread with a moneyline of -. The total is set at – points.
Here’s my USC vs. Cal prediction and college basketball picks for November 11, 2026.
USC vs Cal Prediction
Pick: USC -8.5 (Play to -10)
My USC vs Cal best bet is on the Trojans to cover the spread. Be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page and download the Action Network app for the latest picks and analysis.
USC vs Cal Odds
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -115 | 161.5 -115o / -105u | -325 |
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -105 | 161.5 -115o / -105u | +260 |
- USC vs Cal spread: USC -8.5 (-115), Cal +8.5 (-105)
- USC vs Cal over/under: 161.5 (115o / -105u)
- USC vs Cal moneyline: USC -325, Cal +260
USC vs Cal College Basketball Preview
USC Basketball
USC heads into its first true road game with a 3-0 record after beating Wichita State at Lake Tahoe on Sunday.
It’s been a curious case of “is USC a good shooting team?” The Trojans went an impressive 12-for-22 from deep against Milwaukee but regressed to 2-for-14 against Wichita State. It didn’t matter, as Rodney Rice and Alijah Arenas each scored 30 points, but its something to watch.
I lean towards USC being a passable shooting team — at worst. Rice is close to 40% from deep in his career and Arenas is a good shooter but his shot selection is questionable. It comes down to if the Ratliff twins (Adonis and Darius) can shoot consistently enough.
The Trojans are a low-volume shooting team regardless, attempting 3s on just 30% of their field goals. Their DNA appears to be getting to the foul line, as they rank 23rd in KenPom’s FTA/FGA metric
The Trojans’ size is imposing and could be an issue for Cal, as it aims to keep them off the foul line. All five USC starters are 6-foot-4 or taller and the trio of the Ratliff’s and Jacob Cofie are each 6-foot-11 or taller.
They’ve also done well at protecting the rim, holding teams to 45% shooting on 2s and are tough at defending on-ball, forcing turnovers 23% of the time.
Cal Basketball
Cal enters this matchup with a 2-1 record with wins over non-Division I Adams State and Radford. However, the Golden Bears lost by 18 to Houston on Sunday. They covered the 19.5-point spread but were clearly overmatched in the size and athleticism departments.
The Golden Bears' frontcourt is shaky. Lee Dort is back this season, but he’s yet to play due to injury. That leaves Mark Madsen with Sammie Yeanay, who was a backend of the bench option last season, and Mantas Kocanas.
Kocanas got in foul trouble quickly against Houston and played just 21 minutes. Yeanay scored nine points but went 2-for-9 shooting.
We know Cal will struggle to keep USC off the glass and from scoring inside — it ranks 218th in defensive rebounding rate and 248th in 2-point field goal defense.
That makes it imperative for the Golden Bears to shoot well from deep. They’ve taken 3s on 52% of their field goal attempts this season and are connecting at a strong 42% clip.
Is that sustainable? I doubt it. Michael Cooper is probably their best shooter and he drilled five against Houston. The only other true shooter is Nojus Indrusaitis, who notched a pair of 20+ point scoring games before Houston shut him down.
Plus, Cal is turning the ball over at a 21% clip. The only thing keeping the Golden Bears afloat is shooting. If that goes awry, this game could get pretty lopsided.
USC vs. Cal Pick, Betting Analysis
All the margins favor the Trojans.
The line is sitting at 7.5, and I still vote USC as a top-25 level squad.
KenPom has the Trojans at 34, so I’ll look to back a potentially undervalued team against a Cal unit that lacks top-end talent.
Play it to USC -10.
Pick: USC -8.5 (Play to -10)
