The USF Bulls play the Louisville Cardinals in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 1:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
Louisville is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -205. Meanwhile, USF is the underdog at +4.5 with a moneyline of +168. The total is set at 163.5 points.
Here’s my USF vs. Louisville predictions and college basketball picks for March 19, 2026.
USF vs Louisville Prediction
My Pick: USF +4.5 (Play to +3.5)
My USF vs Louisville best bet is on the Bulls to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
USF vs Louisville Odds
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 163.5 -115o / -105u | +168 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 163.5 -115o / -105u | -205 |
- USF vs Louisville spread: Louisville -4.5
- USF vs Louisville over/under: 163.5 points
- USF vs Louisville moneyline: USF +168, Louisville -205
USF vs Louisville College Basketball Betting Preview
USF Basketball
In year one at the helm, Bryan Hodgson got things rolling at South Florida, leading the Bulls to a 25-8 record. USF hit another level of play towards the end of the season, winning six of their last seven games by 15 or more points.
Hodgson is a Nate Oats disciple, which explains this team’s fun offensive style and high 3-point attempt rate. The Bulls grab a ton of their misses too, ranking seventh nationally in offensive rebounding rate.
Big man Izaiyah Nelson is a beast on the interior, and is the American’s Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year. He’s grabbed three or more offensive rebounds in eight straight games.
In the backcourt, Wes Enis and Joseph Pinion are shot-creating guards who aren’t shy to let it fly from deep. Those two have hit a combined 211 triples this season.
What’s so impressive about this USF team is its defense is even better than its offense. This is a top-40 defense nationally on the season, and the Bulls seemed to find another gear down the stretch.
Louisville Basketball
Pat Kelsey swiftly brought Louisville out of the depths of Kenny Payne Hell, with 50 wins already through two seasons as head coach. The Cardinals went 23-10 this season with an 11-7 mark in the ACC, falling to Miami in the conference tournament quarterfinals, 78-73, after a close win over SMU.
Louisville was a really balanced squad this season, ranking inside the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom.
Offense is what you first think of with Kelsey’s unit, considering its up-tempo style and high 3-point attempt rate. The Cardinals had the fourth highest 3-point attempt rate in the entire country this season.
A big storyline of the Louisville season has been the availability of star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. He missed eight games in the middle of the season, and hasn’t played in Louisville’s last four games either. Unfortunately, he won't be playing in this game.
Brown raises the ceiling of this Louisville team, but it's used to playing without him and still has plenty of talent. Ryan Conwell is one of the best scoring guards in the country, and J’Vonne Hadley is one of the most underrated players in the entire country.
Kelsey can still go nine or 10 deep without Brown, and the Cardinals have a lot of different looks they can go to.
I mentioned Louisville’s defense ranks as a top-25 unit, but it’s worth noting its struggles against better competition. When filtering out Quad 3 and 4 opponents, Louisville’s defensive efficiency drops to 47th nationally.
USF vs Louisville Pick, Betting Analysis
South Florida is the trendiest upset pick in this year’s tournament, and for good reason.
First of all, this is a game environment the Bulls will be comfortable in.
Both of these teams want to play fast and shoot a lot of 3s. As I mentioned, Louisville’s defensive metrics are boosted from its performance against bad teams. USF scores 87.8 points per game, and I don’t see how Louisville is able to make it uncomfortable, or keep Nelson off the offensive glass.
On the other end, I really like the way USF has been defending. Nelson is a monster defensive five man, because he has the size to wall up and clean up on the glass, but the mobility and athleticism to guard in space.
Conwell and Hadley will get theirs, but I’m not that confident in Louisville lighting up this defense.
I’ll gladly take the points in a game where the underdog is extremely live to win.
My Pick: USF +4.5 (Play to +3.5)
