The VCU Rams play the UNC Tar Heels in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament from Greenville, South Carolina. Tip-off is set for 6:50 p.m. ET on TNT.
UNC is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. Meanwhile, VCU is the underdog at +2.5 with a moneyline of +116. The total is set at 152.5 points.
Here’s my VCU vs. UNC predictions and college basketball picks for March 19, 2026.
VCU vs UNC Prediction
My Pick: VCU ML +116
My VCU vs UNC best bet is on the Rams to win outright. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
VCU vs UNC Odds
| VCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | +116 |
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
- VCU vs UNC spread: UNC -2.5
- VCU vs UNC over/under: 152.5 points
- VCU vs UNC moneyline: VCU +116, UNC -140
VCU vs UNC College Basketball Betting Preview
VCU Basketball
VCU is dancing in Phil Martelli Jr.'s first year at the helm.
Both VCU and Martelli are looking to advance to the second round this year after both lost in the first round last season (Martelli was the head coach at Bryant).
The Rams are a top-50 KenPom team and are 16-1 in their past 17 games.
They rank in the top 50 nationally in offensive efficiency during this span, mostly thanks to their success at getting to the free-throw line (43% free-throw rate).
Sophomore guard Terrence Hill Jr. leads the team in scoring at 14.4 points per game and will have to continue to play at a high level for VCU to win this game.
Over his past five games, the 6-foot-3 guard is averaging 16.2 points per game while shooting 49% from the field. In VCU's seven losses, Hill averages 10 points per game, scoring in single digits five times.
Oregon transfer Jadrian Tracey can be a matchup problem for UNC's backcourt. Though he has been an inconsistent scorer throughout the year, Tracey has proven he can fill it up from deep, shooting 38% on almost five attempts per game, including a 6-for-9 game against Dayton earlier this season.
UNC Basketball
UNC enters March Madness on a two-game skid with losses to Duke and Clemson.
The Tar Heels are still trying to fill the void of Caleb Wilson.
They're 5-4 overall since their win against Duke, losing Wilson during the loss to Miami. Their best win over that nine-game stretch was a three-point home win against a Louisville team without Mikel Brown Jr.
Though they lost to Clemson in the ACC Tournament, Henri Veesaar had the game of his life, scoring 28 points and grabbing 17 rebounds, which happened to be his first double-double since the win over Duke back on February 7.
Veesaar will need to continue to be the dominant force on the glass against a tough-minded VCU team.
If I've said it once, I've said it 100 times:
With no Wilson, UNC is at its best when Seth Trimble is a top-two scorer on the team. During UNC's recent four-game winning streak, Trimble averaged 18 points per game. In the four losses in their last 10 games, Trimble is averaging 7.8 points per game.
Someone who has stepped up for UNC recently is freshman point guard Derek Dixon. Over his past three games, Dixon is averaging 14 points per game while shooting 67% from beyond the arc.
VCU vs UNC Pick, Betting Analysis
Per Torvik's efficiency metrics, UNC ranks 39th nationally since February 10th (Wilson's injury), while VCU ranks 32nd during a 9-1 stretch.
Over its past 10 games, VCU is shooting 37% from 3, while UNC ranks 227th in 3-point defense, allowing 35.1% from deep.
Even if Veesaar has a monster game, as he did against Clemson, UNC is still susceptible to losing this game because of the inconsistency of others stepping up.
VCU hasn't advanced to the second round since Will Wade coached them back in 2015-2016, when the Rams beat Oregon State, 75-67.
That streak ends on Friday, with VCU rolling while North Carolina struggles to fill the Wilson void.
Finally, our Action PRO projections have this moneyline at +100, giving us a nice +5.6% edge and a B grade in our system.
My Pick: VCU ML +116
