2021 College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions With Projected Spreads After Week 3

2021 College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions With Projected Spreads After Week 3 article feature image

Jeff Speer/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: The BYU Cougars.

College Football Bowl Projections Entering Week 4

This has probably been a confusing stretch for BYU. Two weeks ago, the Cougars received and accepted an invitation to join the Big 12. Then last week, BYU clinched the Pac-12’s South Division championship.

Well, not officially, anyway.

However, BYU opened the season 3-0 with wins over the Pac-12 South’s Arizona, Utah and Arizona State. Yes, BYU is an FBS Independent and is technically ineligible to win the Pac-12, but the Cougars could crash a New Year’s Six bowl.

Look at the remainder of the Cougars’ schedule, and there's a possibility of an 11-0 BYU visiting USC in the regular-season finale. If so, win or lose vs. USC, I’m projecting the Cougars earn a New Year’s Six bowl bid. (Before you ask, BYU fans, I don’t think the College Football Playoff selection committee would put 12-0 BYU in the playoff … and don’t shoot the messenger).

As far as the rest of my Week 3 bowl projections — like BYU, you likely will be confused if you’re expecting them to resemble last week’s projections.

My College Football Playoff field remains the same (Alabama, Georgia, Oregon and Oklahoma), but there are a few changes: BYU vs. Cincinnati in the Fiesta Bowl, Clemson vs. Penn State in the Peach Bowl, and Florida vs. Ohio State in the Citrus Bowl.

I don’t want to reveal any more spoilers, so check out the rest of this week’s bowl projections.

And, as always, each projection includes the projected point spread for each game based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.

College Football Betting Power Ratings

2021 College Football Bowl Projections

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College Football Playoff National Championship

Monday, Jan. 10 ⋅ Indianapolis, IN

Projection: Alabama vs. Georgia

Action Spread: Alabama -4.5

College Football Playoff Semifinals

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Capital One Orange Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Miami Gardens, FL

Projection: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma

Action Spread: Alabama -9.5

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Goodyear Cotton Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Arlington, TX

Projection: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Georgia

Action Spread: Georgia -11.5

New Year's Six Bowls

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Allstate Sugar Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ New Orleans, LA

Projection: Iowa State vs. Texas A&M

Action Spread: Texas A&M -3

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Rose Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Pasadena, CA

Projection: UCLA vs. Iowa

Action Spread: Iowa -1.5

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PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Glendale, AZ

Projection: BYU vs. Cincinnati*

Action Spread: Cincinnati -10.5

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Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Atlanta, GA

Projection: Clemson vs. Penn State

Action Spread: Penn State -3.5

Other Bowls

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Texas Bowl

Tuesday, Jan. 4 ⋅ Houston, TX

Projection: TCU vs. Arkansas

Action Spread: TCU -1

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Vrbo Citrus Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: Ohio State vs. Florida

Action Spread: Ohio State -4

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Outback Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Tampa, FL

Projection: Wisconsin vs. LSU

Action Spread: Wisconsin -5

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Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Tucson, AZ

Projection: Western Michigan vs. San Diego State

Action Spread: Pick'em

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TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Jacksonville, FL

Projection: North Carolina vs. Auburn

Action Spread: Auburn -1.5

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Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ El Paso, TX

Projection: Boston College vs. Utah

Action Spread: Utah -9

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TransPerfect Music City Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Nashville, TN

Projection: Michigan State vs. Missouri

Action Spread: Michigan State -3.5

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Duke's Mayo Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Charlotte, NC

Projection: Pitt vs. Ole Miss

Action Spread: Ole Miss -6.5

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Las Vegas Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Las Vegas, NV

Projection: Michigan vs. Stanford

Action Spread: Michigan -10.5

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Valero Alamo Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ San Antonio, TX

Projection: Kansas State vs. USC

Action Spread: USC -8.5

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Cheez-It Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: Notre Dame vs. Texas

Action Spread: Texas -2

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New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Bronx, NY

Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers

Action Spread: Virginia Tech -10

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Fenway Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Boston, MA

Projection: Virginia vs. UCF

Action Spread: UCF -3.5

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SDCCU Holiday Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ San Diego, CA

Projection: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State

Action Spread: Arizona State -3.5

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Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Phoenix, AZ

Projection: Minnesota vs. Baylor

Action Spread: Minnesota -0.5

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AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Memphis, TN

Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Kentucky

Action Spread: Oklahoma State -4.5

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SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Dallas, TX

Projection: Nevada vs. Central Michigan

Action Spread: Nevada -11.5

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TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Birmingham, AL

Projection: Mississippi State vs. Miami

Action Spread: Miami -2.5

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Military Bowl

Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Annapolis, MD

Projection: NC State vs. Memphis

Action Spread: NC State -9

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Quick Lane Bowl

Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Detroit, MI

Projection: Indiana vs. Toledo

Action Spread: Indiana -6

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Camellia Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 25 ⋅ Montgomery, AL

Projection: Wyoming vs. Florida Atlantic

Action Spread: Wyoming -4

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EasyPost Hawaii Bowl

Friday, Dec. 24 ⋅ Honolulu, HI

Projection: Boise State vs. SMU

Action Spread: Boise State -3.5

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college football-gasparilla bowl

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 23 ⋅ Tampa, FL

Projection: Maryland vs. Texas Tech

Action Spread: Maryland -2.5

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Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 22 ⋅ Fort Worth, TX

Projection: West Virginia vs. Louisville

Action Spread: West Virginia -5

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Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Frisco, TX

Projection: Purdue vs. Houston

Action Spread: Purdue -3

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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Boise, ID

Projection: Buffalo vs. Utah State

Action Spread: Buffalo -0.5

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Myrtle Beach Bowl

Monday, Dec. 20 ⋅ Myrtle Beach, SC

Projection: Coastal Carolina vs. Western Kentucky

Action Spread: Coastal Carolina -8

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R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ New Orleans, LA

Projection: UAB vs. Louisiana

Action Spread: Louisiana -5

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Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Inglewood, CA

Projection: Oregon State vs. Fresno State

Action Spread: Oregon State -1.5

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Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Shreveport, LA

Projection: Army vs. San Jose State

Action Spread: Pick'em

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LendingTree Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Mobile, AL

Projection: Liberty vs. Troy

Action Spread: Liberty -5

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New Mexico Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Albuquerque, NM

Projection: New Mexico vs. Kent State

Action Spread: Kent State -5

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RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Boca Raton, FL

Projection: Marshall vs. Appalachian State

Action Spread: Appalachian State -5.5

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Cure Bowl

Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: East Carolina vs. South Alabama

Action Spread: East Carolina -4.5

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Bahamas Bowl

Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Nassau, Bahamas

Projection: Louisiana Tech vs. Ball State

Action Spread: Ball State -5

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Fiesta Bowl.

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