2021 College Football Bowl Projections | Brett McMurphy’s Week 5 Predictions with Projected Spreads
Adam Davis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured from left: Casey Thompson (11) and Roschon Johnson (2) of the Texas Longhorns.
College Football Bowl Projections Entering Week 5
Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl? NC State in the Peach Bowl? Clemson in the Gator Bowl? Oregon State in the Alamo Bowl?
To paraphrase the great broadcaster Jack Buck, "I don't believe what I just typed."
With six Top 25 ranked teams losing this past weekend, my bowl projections this week are — well, how do I put this? — wacked. Up is down, down is up.
One week after independent BYU clinches the Pac-12 South division, Arkansas "unofficially" wins the Texas state championship.
Of the 130 FBS schools, there are only 26 unbeaten teams remaining, and we haven't gotten out of September yet.
Here are this week's bowl projections. And, as always, each projection includes the projected point spread for each game based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.
![](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/09/memphis-2.jpg)
2021 College Football Bowl Projections
![college football playoff-cfp-national championship](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/cfp-national-championship.png)
College Football Playoff National Championship
Monday, Jan. 10 ⋅ Indianapolis, IN
Projection: Alabama vs. Georgia
Action Spread: Alabama -2.5
College Football Playoff Semifinals
![college football-orange bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/capital-one-orange-bowl-400-x-400.png)
Capital One Orange Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Miami Gardens, FL
Projection: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Oregon
Action Spread: Georgia -13
![college football-cotton bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/goodyear-cotton-bowl-700-x-600.png)
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Arlington, TX
Projection: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Penn State
Action Spread: Alabama -10.5
New Year's Six Bowls
![college football-sugar bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/allstate-sugar-bowl-539-x-462.png)
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ New Orleans, LA
Projection: Oklahoma vs. Arkansas
Action Spread: Oklahoma -6
![college football-rose bowl-game](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/rose-bowl-game-logo-800-x-800.png)
Rose Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Pasadena, CA
Projection: UCLA vs. Iowa
Action Spread: Iowa -1
![college football-fiesta bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/playstation-fiesta-bowl-350-x-300.png)
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Glendale, AZ
Projection: BYU vs. Cincinnati*
Action Spread: Cincinnati -10.5
![college football-chick fil a-peach bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/chick-fil-a-peach-bowl-400-x-400.png)
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Atlanta, GA
Projection: Florida vs. NC State
Action Spread: Florida -7.5
Other Bowls
![college football-texas bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/texas-bowl-600-x-400.png)
Texas Bowl
Tuesday, Jan. 4 ⋅ Houston, TX
Projection: Iowa State vs. Kentucky
Action Spread: Iowa State -8
![college football-citrus bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/vrbo-citrus-bowl-2021-400-x-400.png)
Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Ohio State vs. Ole Miss
Action Spread: Ohio State -5.5
![college football-outback bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/outback-bowl-350-x-225.png)
Outback Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Tampa, FL
Projection: Michigan vs. Texas A&M
Action Spread: Texas A&M -2.5
![college football-arizona bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/barstool-arizona-bowl-350-x-350.png)
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Tucson, AZ
Projection: Western Michigan vs. San Diego State
Action Spread: Western Michigan -1
![college football-gator bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/taxslayer-gator-bowl-400-x-400.png)
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Jacksonville, FL
Projection: Clemson vs. Auburn
Action Spread: Auburn -1
![college football-sun bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/tony-the-tiger-sun-bowl-400-x-400.png)
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ El Paso, TX
Projection: Boston College vs. USC
Action Spread: USC -6.5
![college football-music city bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/transperfect-music-city-bowl-350-x-400.png)
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Nashville, TN
Projection: Michigan State vs. Missouri
Action Spread: Michigan State -5.5
![college football-dukes mayo bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/dukes-mayo-bowl-600-x-400-300x200.png)
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Charlotte, NC
Projection: North Carolina vs. LSU
Action Spread: North Carolina -0.5
![college football-las vegas bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/srs-distribution-las-vegas-bowl-375-x-375.png)
Las Vegas Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Las Vegas, NV
Projection: Wisconsin vs. Arizona State
Action Spread: Wisconsin -3
![college football-alamo bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/valero-alamo-bowl-500-x-400.png)
Valero Alamo Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ San Antonio, TX
Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon State
Action Spread: Oklahoma State -1.5
![college football-cheez it bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/cheez-it-bowl-2021.png)
Cheez-It Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Notre Dame vs. Texas
Action Spread: Texas -2.5
![college football-pinstripe bowl-new york](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/new-era-pinstripe-bowl-600-x-400.png)
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Bronx, NY
Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers
Action Spread: Virginia Tech -9.5
![college football-fenway bowl-boston](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/fenway-bowl-500-x-500.png)
Fenway Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Boston, MA
Projection: Pitt vs. UCF
Action Spread: UCF -2.5
![college football-holiday bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/san-diego-county-credit-union-holiday-bowl-2021-720-x-7201.png)
SDCCU Holiday Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ San Diego, CA
Projection: Wake Forest vs. Washington
Action Spread: Wake Forest -2
![college football-guaranteed rate bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/guaranteed-rate-bowl-480-x-360.png)
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Phoenix, AZ
Projection: Indiana vs. West Virginia
Action Spread: West Virginia -1.5
![college football-liberty bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/autozone-liberty-bowl-2021-1050-x-1200.png)
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Memphis, TN
Projection: Baylor vs. Mississippi State
Action Spread: Baylor -1
![college football-first responder bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/servpro-first-responder-bowl-350-x-350-jpeg.png)
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Dallas, TX
Projection: Kansas State vs. Utah
Action Spread: Utah -4.5
![college football-birmingham bowl-alabama](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/ticketsmarter-birmingham-bowl-500-x-500.png)
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Birmingham, AL
Projection: Wyoming vs. Miami
Action Spread: Miami -7.5
![college football-military bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/military-bowl-logo-450-x-400.png)
Military Bowl
Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Annapolis, MD
Projection: Louisville vs. Memphis
Action Spread: Louisville -5.5
![college football-quick lane bowl-detroit](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/quick-lane-bown-600-x-450.png)
Quick Lane Bowl
Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Detroit, MI
Projection: Maryland vs. Toledo
Action Spread: Maryland -2.5
![college football-camellia bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/camellia-bowl-900-x-600.png)
Camellia Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 25 ⋅ Montgomery, AL
Projection: Central Michigan vs. Marshall
Action Spread: Marshall -12
![college football-hawaii bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/easypost-hawaii-bowl-800-x-600.png)
EasyPost Hawaii Bowl
Friday, Dec. 24 ⋅ Honolulu, HI
Projection: Boise State vs. SMU
Action Spread: Boise State -1
![college football-gasparilla bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/union-home-mortgage-gasparilla-bowl-700-x-600.png)
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 23 ⋅ Tampa, FL
Projection: Minnesota vs. Western Kentucky
Action Spread: Minnesota -1.5
![college football-armed forces bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/lockheed-martin-armed-forces-bowl-750-x-600.png)
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 22 ⋅ Fort Worth, TX
Projection: TCU vs. Army
Action Spread: TCU -7.5
![college football-frisco bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/tropical-smoothie-cafe-frisco-bowl-500-x-500.png)
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Frisco, TX
Projection: Virginia vs. Houston
Action Spread: Virginia -6
![college football-famous idaho-potato bowl-boise](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/famous-idaho-potato-bowl-675-x-450.png)
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Boise, ID
Projection: Buffalo vs. Utah State
Action Spread: Buffalo -0.5
![college football-myrtle beach bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/myrtle-beach-bowl-450-x-600.png)
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Monday, Dec. 20 ⋅ Myrtle Beach, SC
Projection: Appalachian State vs. Kent State
Action Spread: Appalachian State -18
![college football-new orleans bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/rl-carriers-new-orleans-bowl-2021-300-x-180.png)
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ New Orleans, LA
Projection: UAB vs. Louisiana
Action Spread: Louisiana -3
![college football-la bowl-jimmy kimmel](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/jimmy-kimmel-la-bowl-2021-600-x-400.png)
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Inglewood, CA
Projection: Stanford vs. Fresno State
Action Spread: Fresno State -3.5
![college football-independence bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/radiance-technologies-independence-bowl-750-x-450.png)
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Shreveport, LA
Projection: UTSA vs. South Alabama
Action Spread: UTSA -8
![college football-lendingtree bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/lendingtree-bowl-400-x-400.png)
LendingTree Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Mobile, AL
Projection: UL-Monroe vs. Florida Atlantic
Action Spread: Florida Atlantic -11.5
![college football-new mexico bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/new-mexico-bowl-900-x-600.png)
New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Albuquerque, NM
Projection: Air Force vs. UTEP
Action Spread: Air Force -13.5
![college football-boca raton bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/roofclaim-boca-raton-bowl-600-x-400.png)
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Boca Raton, FL
Projection: Coastal Carolina vs. Charlotte
Action Spread: Coastal Carolina -20
![college football-cure bowl-orlando](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/cure-bowl-500-x-600.png)
Cure Bowl
Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: East Carolina vs. Liberty
Action Spread: Liberty -9
![college football-bahamas bowl](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/bahamas-bowl-2021-780-x-650.png)
Bahamas Bowl
Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Nassau, Bahamas
Projection: Louisiana Tech vs. Ball State
Action Spread: Ball State -4
* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Fiesta Bowl.
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