2021 College Football Bowl Projections | Brett McMurphy’s Week 5 Predictions with Projected Spreads

2021 College Football Bowl Projections | Brett McMurphy’s Week 5 Predictions with Projected Spreads article feature image

Adam Davis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured from left: Casey Thompson (11) and Roschon Johnson (2) of the Texas Longhorns.

College Football Bowl Projections Entering Week 5

Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl? NC State in the Peach Bowl? Clemson in the Gator Bowl? Oregon State in the Alamo Bowl?

To paraphrase the great broadcaster Jack Buck, "I don't believe what I just typed."

With six Top 25 ranked teams losing this past weekend, my bowl projections this week are — well, how do I put this? — wacked. Up is down, down is up.

One week after independent BYU clinches the Pac-12 South division, Arkansas "unofficially" wins the Texas state championship.

Of the 130 FBS schools, there are only 26 unbeaten teams remaining, and we haven't gotten out of September yet.

Here are this week's bowl projections. And, as always, each projection includes the projected point spread for each game based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.

College Football Betting Power Ratings

2021 College Football Bowl Projections

college football playoff-cfp-national championship

College Football Playoff National Championship

Monday, Jan. 10 ⋅ Indianapolis, IN

Projection: Alabama vs. Georgia

Action Spread: Alabama -2.5

College Football Playoff Semifinals

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Capital One Orange Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Miami Gardens, FL

Projection: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Oregon

Action Spread: Georgia -13

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Goodyear Cotton Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Arlington, TX

Projection: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Penn State

Action Spread: Alabama -10.5

New Year's Six Bowls

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Allstate Sugar Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ New Orleans, LA

Projection: Oklahoma vs. Arkansas

Action Spread: Oklahoma -6

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Rose Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Pasadena, CA

Projection: UCLA vs. Iowa

Action Spread: Iowa -1

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PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Glendale, AZ

Projection: BYU vs. Cincinnati*

Action Spread: Cincinnati -10.5

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Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Atlanta, GA

Projection: Florida vs. NC State

Action Spread: Florida -7.5

Other Bowls

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Texas Bowl

Tuesday, Jan. 4 ⋅ Houston, TX

Projection: Iowa State vs. Kentucky

Action Spread: Iowa State -8

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Vrbo Citrus Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: Ohio State vs. Ole Miss

Action Spread: Ohio State -5.5

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Outback Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Tampa, FL

Projection: Michigan vs. Texas A&M

Action Spread: Texas A&M -2.5

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Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Tucson, AZ

Projection: Western Michigan vs. San Diego State

Action Spread: Western Michigan -1

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TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Jacksonville, FL

Projection: Clemson vs. Auburn

Action Spread: Auburn -1

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Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ El Paso, TX

Projection: Boston College vs. USC

Action Spread: USC -6.5

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TransPerfect Music City Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Nashville, TN

Projection: Michigan State vs. Missouri

Action Spread: Michigan State -5.5

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Duke's Mayo Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Charlotte, NC

Projection: North Carolina vs. LSU

Action Spread: North Carolina -0.5

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Las Vegas Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Las Vegas, NV

Projection: Wisconsin vs. Arizona State

Action Spread: Wisconsin -3

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college football-alamo bowl

Valero Alamo Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ San Antonio, TX

Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon State

Action Spread: Oklahoma State -1.5

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Cheez-It Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: Notre Dame vs. Texas

Action Spread: Texas -2.5

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New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Bronx, NY

Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers

Action Spread: Virginia Tech -9.5

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Fenway Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Boston, MA

Projection: Pitt vs. UCF

Action Spread: UCF -2.5

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SDCCU Holiday Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ San Diego, CA

Projection: Wake Forest vs. Washington

Action Spread: Wake Forest -2

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Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Phoenix, AZ

Projection: Indiana vs. West Virginia

Action Spread: West Virginia -1.5

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AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Memphis, TN

Projection: Baylor vs. Mississippi State

Action Spread: Baylor -1

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SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Dallas, TX

Projection: Kansas State vs. Utah

Action Spread: Utah -4.5

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TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Birmingham, AL

Projection: Wyoming vs. Miami

Action Spread: Miami -7.5

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Military Bowl

Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Annapolis, MD

Projection: Louisville vs. Memphis

Action Spread: Louisville -5.5

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Quick Lane Bowl

Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Detroit, MI

Projection: Maryland vs. Toledo

Action Spread: Maryland -2.5

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Camellia Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 25 ⋅ Montgomery, AL

Projection: Central Michigan vs. Marshall

Action Spread: Marshall -12

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EasyPost Hawaii Bowl

Friday, Dec. 24 ⋅ Honolulu, HI

Projection: Boise State vs. SMU

Action Spread: Boise State -1

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college football-gasparilla bowl

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 23 ⋅ Tampa, FL

Projection: Minnesota vs. Western Kentucky

Action Spread: Minnesota -1.5

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Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 22 ⋅ Fort Worth, TX

Projection: TCU vs. Army

Action Spread: TCU -7.5

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Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Frisco, TX

Projection: Virginia vs. Houston

Action Spread: Virginia -6

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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Boise, ID

Projection: Buffalo vs. Utah State

Action Spread: Buffalo -0.5

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Myrtle Beach Bowl

Monday, Dec. 20 ⋅ Myrtle Beach, SC

Projection: Appalachian State vs. Kent State

Action Spread: Appalachian State -18

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R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ New Orleans, LA

Projection: UAB vs. Louisiana

Action Spread: Louisiana -3

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Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Inglewood, CA

Projection: Stanford vs. Fresno State

Action Spread: Fresno State -3.5

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Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Shreveport, LA

Projection: UTSA vs. South Alabama

Action Spread: UTSA -8

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LendingTree Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Mobile, AL

Projection: UL-Monroe vs. Florida Atlantic

Action Spread: Florida Atlantic -11.5

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New Mexico Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Albuquerque, NM

Projection: Air Force vs. UTEP

Action Spread: Air Force -13.5

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RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Boca Raton, FL

Projection: Coastal Carolina vs. Charlotte

Action Spread: Coastal Carolina -20

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Cure Bowl

Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: East Carolina vs. Liberty

Action Spread: Liberty -9

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Bahamas Bowl

Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Nassau, Bahamas

Projection: Louisiana Tech vs. Ball State

Action Spread: Ball State -4

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Fiesta Bowl.

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