2021 College Football Playoff National Title Odds Tracker: Alabama Tops Board Ahead of Rose Bowl Against Notre Dame
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Mac Jones.
2020-2021 National Championship Odds
|Alabama||-143 [Bet Now]|
|Clemson||+175 [Bet Now]|
|Ohio State||+900 [Bet Now]|
|Notre Dame||+3300 [Bet Now]|
Above are updated College Football National Championship odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
For those new to sports betting, +150 odds mean a $100 bet would win $150 (in addition to the $100 risked).
Last updated December 30.
December 27 update
With the four semifinalists for the College Football Playoff announced, not much has changed on the national championship odds board.
No. 1 Alabama remains the favorite at -167, while No. 2 Clemson sits right behind it at +175.
Then, there’s a big gap.
Ohio State, the No. 3 team in the CFP rankings, finds itself at +800. No. 4 Notre Dame is at +3300 heading into its game against Alabama.
The Crimson Tide will take on the Fighting Irish in the Rose Bowl at 5 p.m. ET on Jan. 1. When that game wraps up, the Tigers and Buckeyes will battle in the Sugar Bowl at 8 p.m. ET.
December 20 update
The five favorites to win a national title are set.
Alabama remains a heavy favorite as it moves to -200, while Clemson sits behind it at +150 after downing Notre Dame in the ACC Championship.
Ohio State continues to look on in third on the odds board at +400. Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s chances fell off significantly after its loss to Clemson, falling from +700 to +2200.
Texas A&M rounds out the bunch at +2500.
Either the Aggies or the Fighting Irish will likely fall off the board in the next week as the College Football Playoff committee goes to work to decide the top four.
December 13 update
Alabama has entered minus territory. The Crimson Tide are now -143 to win the national championship as the odds shifted on Sunday after an emphatic 52-3 win over Arkansas.
Odds remain relatively similar toward the top of the board at DraftKings, but the biggest movement was the fall of Florida. After the Gators suffered a shocking loss to LSU, their path into College Football Playoff is much more difficult with a second regular-season loss and their odds went from +1800 to +4000.
A win in the SEC title game over Alabama could still hypothetically do the trick to get the Gators in, but it’s no longer automatic.
December 12 update
With the Big Ten’s rule change allowing Ohio State to play in the conference championship game, Indiana has fallen off the list after previously sitting at +15000.
The top four teams — Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Notre Dame — all sit under +1000, while Florida and Texas A&M are on the outside looking in, at +1800 and +2000, respectively.
December 10 update
The biggest movement in the top four was Ohio State moving from +450 to +300. Although it’s clear that Ryan Day’s team is one of the nation’s best, the Big Ten’s rule change that allows the Buckeyes to play Northwestern in the conference championship game further increases the likelihood that they’ll get a chance to play for another national championship.
That change also made Iowa State and Oklahoma‘s longshot odds go down from +50000 to +15000. If either delivers a dominant performance in the Big 12 title game and Ohio State falls to Northwestern, there’s a chance that the committee could be swayed to put a two-loss conference champion in the top four.
If Ohio State loses, though, DraftKings still likes the spot to go to either Florida, which will play Alabama for the SEC championship, or Texas A&M. The Aggies are at +2000 but have played their complete schedule and simply have to hope for chaos.
December 6 update
The four schools atop the board continue to create even more separation from the rest of the pack. Alabama moved down to +100 after its domination of LSU, while Clemson went from +250 to +275.
Behind the two collegiate giants are two more. Ohio State moved from +550 to +475 thanks to an impressive performance against Michigan State. Notre Dame moved from +600 to +700 because of the Crimson Tide’s dominance.
With most of the Power 5’s conference title pictures becoming clearer, the number of teams on the board decreased significantly. BYU’s loss to Coastal Carolina took the Cougars off the board, while Oklahoma, Georgia, Iowa, Miami (FL), Auburn, Memphis, Missouri and Oklahoma State also disappeared.
November 29 update
There was a slight shake-up in the national championship odds after Week 13.
While Alabama still leads the pack at +125, Ohio State dropped from second to third on the board, going from +225 to +550 after its game against Illinois was canceled. That change led to Clemson reclaiming second place, as the Tigers jumped from +350 to +250.
Cincinnati remains the Group of Five team with the best odds, sitting at +3300. BYU, meanwhile, finds itself at +15000.
Northwestern also saw itself drop down the board. After losing to Michigan State on Saturday, the Wildcats fell from +5000 to +8000.
November 22 update
It was more of the same after Week 12 of the college football season, as there was little movement at the top of the odds board.
The biggest change came after Northwestern‘s victory over Wisconsin. The Wildcats jumped to +5000 after sitting at +1500 before the game. As a result, the Badgers dropped from +8000 to +35000.
Another key change came from the Ohio State vs. Indiana game. After the Hoosiers’ loss, they fell from +8000 to +35000, while the Buckeyes rose to +225 from +250.
Texas A&M dropped from +6600 to +20000. Notre Dame jumped to +1400 from +2000, and Florida went from +1100 to +1000.
November 15 update
There was very little movement in the national title odds after a Week 11 that saw many games across the slate get canceled.
Nine of the 10 teams with the shortest odds remained the same. The only difference in that group was Georgia falling from +8000 to +10000.
Meanwhile, Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Florida, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, BYU, Cincinnati, and Indiana all kept their same odds from last week.
November 8 update
The Clemson Tigers are no longer the favorites to win the national championship.
After Notre Dame topped Clemson in a double-overtime thriller on Saturday, Alabama claimed the top spot, rising to +125 from +200. The Tigers subsequently fell to the third spot and dropped from +125 to +350, while the Fighting Irish rose to +2000.
The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party also had a big impact in the national title odds. After Florida‘s victory over Georgia, the Gators jumped to +1100. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs fell significantly from +1100 to +8000.
BYU and Cincinnati are the top teams outside of the Power Five, both sitting at +8000 after Week 10.
November 3 update
The top-four teams favored to win the national title this season remain unchanged.
Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, and Georgia still sit in the first four slots on the board, with the Tigers falling slightly and the Crimson Tide, Buckeyes, and Bulldogs taking small jumps.
Clemson now sits at +175 after sitting at +120 before its scare against Boston College.
Outside of the top favorites, Notre Dame has slid into the top five. The Fighting Irish are now at +3300 while they sat at +4000 with the seventh-shortest odds last week.
Either Clemson’s or Notre Dame’s odds will move significantly next week as the teams battle to remain undefeated.
Michigan, which sat at +3300 last week, fell down to +15000 after dropping a rivalry game to Michigan State on Saturday.
Wisconsin found itself sliding down the board as well after its game against Nebraska was canceled due to COVID-19 concerns. The Badgers are now at +8000 — down from +5000 — and won’t face Purdue this week as originally scheduled.
October 26 update
The Big Ten is back, and it’s showing up in the national title odds.
After toppling Nebraska, Ohio State remains with the team with the third-shortest odds, trailing only Clemson (+120) and Alabama (+275).
Michigan also picked up a big victory over Minnesota, shooting up to +3300 from +6600. The Wolverines now boast the sixth-shortest odds, while the Golden Gophers fell from +10000 to +25000.
Penn State suffered one of the biggest drop-offs of the week after its loss to Indiana (+25000 to +10000), falling to +10000 after sitting at +3300 last week.
LSU, the defending national champion, is now at +25000 with a 2-2 record.
October 19 update
Despite one loss among the top-four teams from a national title odds perspective, the group remains intact. That’s because Georgia‘s loss came at the hands of Alabama.
After toppling the then-No. 3 Bulldogs, the Crimson Tide jumped past Ohio State for the second-shortest odds and now sit at +300. Georgia, meanwhile, dropped from +900 to +1200.
Clemson remains in the top spot after a dominant 73-7 win over Georgia Tech. The Tigers keep inching closer toward the “even” mark, moving from +175 to +120.
Despite entering Week 7 as a top-five team, North Carolina sat at +12500. Now, after a loss to Florida State (+75000), the Tar Heels own a +25000 mark.
With the Big Ten opening play this weekend, five teams — Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota — are within the top 12 programs on the odds board.
October 13 update
The top-three teams atop the national championship odds board remain unchanged. However, the previous No. 4 took a tumble.
Florida fell from +1400 to +2200 after suffering a loss to Texas A&M (+5000) in College Station on Saturday. The Gators were replaced by Georgia, which jumped from +1400 to +900 after toppling Tennessee. An upcoming matchup against Alabama (+350) will play a key role in both teams’ odds moving forward.
Texas and Miami both fell down the board as well. The Longhorns dropped to +15000 from +8000 after falling to Oklahoma (+10000), while the U also went to +15000 from +6600 after its loss to Clemson.
LSU, the defending national champions, sit at +25000 after falling to Missouri (+50000) in Columbia.
October 8 update
Not much changed atop the odds board after Week 5, as Clemson remains the favorite at +200. The Tigers are followed closely by Ohio State (+250) and Alabama, whose odds improved from +400 to +300 after a blowout victory over Texas A&M.
Georgia‘s odds shortened to +1400 after a win over Auburn (now +10000) and sits right behind the top three along with Florida (+1400). Oklahoma dropped to +6600 after losing to Iowa State (+25000), while Mississippi State fell from +4000 to +10000 and Texas A&M tumbled from +5000 to +10000.
Reigning champion LSU remains at +10000 to take home this year’s title.
September 29 update
Clemson (+200), Ohio State (+250) and Alabama (+400) remain the three clear prohibitive favorites to win the 2020-21 College Football Playoff National Championship. All three teams have remained at heir currently listed futures odds since Sept. 16. Unless, or until, the Tigers, Buckeyes or Crimson Tide loses, the real National Championship race is for the No. 4 playoff spot behind that trio.
Throughout the offseason, the Oklahoma Sooners appeared to be a strong contender, but their Week 4 loss to Kansas State is now a stubborn smudge on their resume. The Sooners’ national championship odds fell from +2000 to +2800 following their defeat, while Kansas State’s odds subsequently rose from +50000 to +20000.
The defending champion LSU Tigers (+3300 to +10000) also seemed like a reasonable bet to reload after last season’s title, but those hopes were sullied after their season-opening defeat to the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Mississippi State so impressed futures investors in its 44-34 upset, that the Bulldogs’ national championship odds rose staggeringly week over week. As of Sept. 21, Mississippi State was still listed at +25000. But after the Bulldogs’ Week 4 win over LSU, they now boast top-10 odds to win at +4000.
From one Bulldogs team to another: The Georgia Bulldogs were wholly unimpressive in their season opener against Arkansas. Georgia’s first points came via defensive safety, and the Bulldogs trailed the Razorbacks 5-7 entering halftime. They flipped a switch in the third quarter and eventually pulled away in a 37-10 win, but futures investors were clearly dissatisfied with the Bulldogs’ showing — especially their lingering uncertainty at the quarterback position.
As a result, Georgia’s odds dropped from +1200 to +2000, which translates to a 2.93% decrease in implied probability. That drop was the largest of any team in Week 4, which is somewhat surprising considering that the Bulldogs did, in fact, win by a 27-point margin. Texas A&M (+4000 to +5000) suffered a similarly precipitous decline of around 1.45% despite the Aggies’ victory over Vanderbilt.
September 21 update
Week 3 did little to distinguish teams as legitimate national title contenders, but it did rescind a couple of invites to the party.
Louisville’s national championship odds fell from +15000 to +25000 after the Cardinals’ primetime defeat by Miami. The Hurricanes jumped out to a 20-6 halftime lead and maintained at least a two-score lead for the entire ballgame. Miami’s title odds increased concurrently, rising from +12500 on Sept. 16 to +10000 by the end of the weekend.
Other notable risers include Boston College (+25000 to +20000) and Marshall (+35000 to +3000), neither of whom project as legitimate threats to topple the current college football hierarchy.
Duke, Georgia Tech, South Florida, Syracuse and Tulane each fell from +50000 to +10000 following their respective Week 3 losses.
Expect plenty of movement at the top of the ladder this weekend as the SEC finally inaugurates its 2020 conference campaign.
September 16 update
Welcome back to the party, Big Ten.
With the conference’s announcement that they would be returning to the fall college football season, a few notable futures updates followed. Ohio State is the most notable of the bunch, jumping right into the No. 2 spot at +250 odds. As such, Clemson was pulled back from +150 to +200.
Other top contenders, like Alabama (+225 to +400) and Georgia (+400 to +1200) also took considerable hits to their title chances with the insertion of the Buckeyes.
As for the other big names returning with the Big Ten, Penn State comes in at +2800, while Michigan and Wisconsin are both listed at +4000.
September 14 update
The college football National Championship futures market remained mostly stagnant following Week 2 action, as we anxiously await the SEC joining into the mix on September 26.
Among this week’s biggest movers, the Texas Longhorns (+1400) improved from +3300 following their 59-3 shellacking of UTEP. Texas’ implied odds increased 3.73% week-over-week, corresponding with a huge improvement in quarterback Sam Ehlinger’s Heisman Trophy odds.
The Syracuse Orange improved to +20000 despite a Week 2 loss to North Carolina, and the Pittsburgh Panthers moved from +25000 to +10000 after dispatching Austin Peay 55-0.
Notre Dame was this weeks biggest faller after an uninspiring 27-13 win over Duke in South Bend. The Fighting Irish dropped from +2200 to +3300 following Week 2 action, which represents a 1.41% decrease in their implied probability to win the National Championship.
Here’s a quick rundown of the week’s other notable fallers:
- The Iowa State Cyclones fell from +8000 to +15000 after their home loss to Louisiana-Lafayette.
- The Florida State Seminoles and Kansas State Wildcats each fell from +15000 to +50000 following home losses to Georgia Tech and Arkansas State respectively.