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2022 College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Week 3 Predictions With Projected Spreads

2022 College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Week 3 Predictions With Projected Spreads article feature image
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Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: The Baylor Bears run onto the field.

2022 College Football Bowl Projections

Following one of the craziest Saturdays in recent college football history, my new bowl projections this week have a much, much different look than last week.

Marshall’s upset win at Notre Dame and Houston’s overtime loss at Texas Tech vaults the Thundering Herd into the Cotton Bowl as my projection for the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bowl representative.

Also, losses by Pitt, Baylor, Wisconsin and Florida — all projected among the New Year’s Six bowls last week — have resulted in all four of those major bowls having different matchups this week. Say hello to Michigan State, USC, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Kentucky.

Did I mention I’m also now projecting an SEC vs. Big Ten showdown in each of the College Football Playoff semifinals in the Fiesta and Peach bowls? That, my friends, is called burying the lede.

This week, my semifinals feature my projected No. 1 seed Georgia vs. No. 4 seed Michigan in the Peach Bowl and No. 2 seed Ohio State vs. No. 3 seed Alabama in the Fiesta Bowl.

Keep reading to see all the changes. Each matchup includes the projected point spread based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings.

Updated 2022 College Football Betting Power Ratings

CFP National Championship Prediction

  • CFP National Championship

    Monday, Jan. 9
    Los Angeles, CA

    Georgia

    Alabama

    -2.5

College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections

  • Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Atlanta, GA

    Georgia

    -7

    Michigan

  • Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Glendale, AZ

    Ohio State

    Alabama

    -1

New Year’s Six Bowl Games

  • Rose Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Pasadena, CA

    USC

    Michigan State

    -1.5
  • Goodyear Cotton Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Arlington, TX

    Oklahoma

    -11.5

    Marshall

  • Allstate Sugar Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    New Orleans, LA

    Oklahoma State

    -2

    Kentucky

  • Capital One Orange Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Miami, FL

    Miami

    -2.5

    Arkansas


Projections for All Other Bowls

  • Citrus Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Orlando, FL

    Penn State

    Tennessee

    -0.5
  • ReliaQuest Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Tampa, FL

    Texas A&M

    -2.5

    Wisconsin

  • Music City Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Nashville, TN

    Maryland

    Florida

    -1.5
  • Arizona Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Tucson, AZ

    Ohio

    Fresno State

    -14.5
  • TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Jacksonville, FL

    Clemson

    -7.5

    LSU

  • Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    El Paso, TX

    Wake Forest

    PK

    UCLA

    PK
  • Duke’s Mayo Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Charlotte, NC

    NC State

    -7

    Iowa

  • Valero Alamo Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    San Antonio, TX

    Baylor

    Utah

    -2.5
  • Cheez-It Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    Orlando, FL

    Notre Dame

    Texas

    -1.5
  • Pinstripe Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    Bronx, NY

    North Carolina

    -2

    Minnesota

  • TaxAct Texas Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Houston, TX

    TCU

    Mississippi State

    -1
  • Holiday Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    San Diego, CA

    Florida State

    -10.5

    Oregon State

  • AutoZone Liberty Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Memphis, TN

    Iowa State

    Auburn

    -0.5
  • Military Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Annapolis, MD

    Pittsburgh

    -7

    UCF

  • Guaranteed Rate Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Phoenix, AZ

    Illinois

    Kansas State

    -3
  • Camellia Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Montgomery, AL

    Toledo

    -2

    Louisiana

  • Birmingham Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Birmingham, AL

    Purdue

    BYU

    -4
  • First Responder Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Dallas, TX

    Washington State

    Texas Tech

    -10.5
  • Quick Lane Bowl

    Monday, Dec. 26
    Detroit, MI

    Indiana

    -13.5

    Ball State

  • EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 24
    Honolulu, HI

    Boise State

    UTSA

    -1.5
  • Gasparilla Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 23
    Tampa, FL

    Duke

    Rutgers

    -4
  • Independence Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 23
    Shreveport, LA

    Army

    Tulane

    -6.5
  • Armed Forces Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 22
    Fort Worth, TX

    Arizona State

    SMU

    -1.5
  • New Orleans Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 21
    New Orleans, LA

    Western Kentucky

    Appalachian State

    -6.5
  • Boca Raton Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 20
    Boca Raton, FL

    Memphis

    -2.5

    San Diego State

  • Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 20
    Boise, ID

    Eastern Michigan

    -4

    Utah State

  • Myrtle Beach Bowl

    Monday, Dec. 19
    Conway, SC

    Coastal Carolina

    East Carolina

    -6.5
  • Frisco Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Frisco, TX

    Syracuse

    Houston

    -1
  • Las Vegas Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Las Vegas, NV

    Ole Miss

    Oregon

    -1
  • LendingTree Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Mobile, AL

    UAB

    -13

    Georgia Southern

  • Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Los Angeles, CA

    Washington

    -2.5

    Air Force

  • New Mexico Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Albuquerque, NM

    San Jose State

    -5.5

    Liberty

  • Wasabi Fenway Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Boston, MA

    Virginia Tech

    Cincinnati

    -8.5
  • Duluth Trading Cure Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 16
    Orlando, FL

    North Texas

    Old Dominion

    -2
  • Bahamas Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 16
    Nassau, Bahamas

    Florida Atlantic

    Northern Illinois

    -3
  • TBA Bowl**

    TBD
    TBD

    Georgia State

    -15

    UTEP


* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

**ESPN will create a bowl this fall to replace the San Francisco Bowl if it is not played.

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