The Air Force Falcons take on the Navy Midshipmen in Annapolis, Maryland. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. EDT on CBS.
Navy is favored by 11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -425. The total is set at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Air Force vs. Navy prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 4, 2025.
Air Force vs Navy Prediction
- Air Force vs. Navy Pick: Air Force Team Total Over 19.5 (-125, DraftKings)
My Navy vs. Air Force best bet is on Air Force's team total Over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Air Force vs Navy Odds
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -108 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | +330 |
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -112 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | -425 |
- Air Force vs Navy point spread: Navy -11.5 (-112), Air Force +11.5 (-108)
- Air Force vs Navy over/under: 51.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Air Force vs Navy moneyline: Air Force +330, Navy -425
Air Force vs Navy Pick
Where is the respect for Air Force’s offense?
The Falcons have scored 102 points over the past three weeks, ranking second nationally in Success Rate and Havoc allowed during the stretch. They’re always moving the chains, getting into third-and-managable at worst.
When the offense is humming, Air Force churns out explosive pass plays. The Falcons rank second nationally in Aerial Explosives. Quarterback Liam Szarka can sling it, and Cade Harris is a versatile skill-position weapon (439 yards on 16 receptions, 27.4 YPR).
Meanwhile, the Falcons’ defense is dreadful. But that’s good for this bet, as Navy will hit explosives and hand the ball right back to Air Force, rather than draining the clock with a 15-play, 10-minute drive.
Navy’s defense is also super leaky, ranking 108th in Pass Explosiveness allowed and 109th in Pass PPA allowed. That was against VMI, Rice, Tulsa and UAB — the Midshipmen haven’t faced a murderer’s row of offenses.
At anything better than 20.5, I’ll be on Air Force’s team total Over. I don’t expect the offense to stop churning.
Pick: Air Force Team Total Over 19.5 (-125, DraftKings)
