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The UCLA Bruins take on the Oregon Ducks in Eugene, Oregon, on Saturday, Oct. 10. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Oregon is favored by -11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -480. UCLA, meanwhile, enters as a +11.5 underdog and is +360 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 58.5 total points.
Here’s my UCLA vs. Oregon prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 10.
UCLA vs Oregon Prediction
- UCLA vs. Oregon Pick: UCLA Team Total Under 23
My Oregon vs. UCLA best bet is on the Bruins to go under their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UCLA vs Oregon Odds
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 58.5 -106o / -114u | +360 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 58.5 -106o / -114u | -480 |
- UCLA vs Oregon Spread: Oregon -11.5 (-110), UCLA +11.5 (-110)
- UCLA vs Oregon Over/Under: 58.5 (-106o / -114u)
- UCLA vs Oregon Moneyline: UCLA +360, Oregon -480
UCLA vs Oregon College Football Preview
UCLA Bruins Betting Preview: Undefeated Start Has an Asterisk
UCLA head coach Bob Chesney will visit Eugene once again after covering as James Madison's head coach in the College Football Playoff last season.
The move to Los Angeles has been flawless to this point, with his team scoring at least 45 points in three of its four wins.
The Bruins are undefeated but with an asterisk that points to one of the softest strength-of-schedule ranks in the country.
Nevertheless, the offense is heavily ground-based, with five different run concepts getting at least 20 rushing attempts this season.
James Madison transfer Wayne Knight has been a star for the Bruins, averaging 9.1 yards per attempt with a ridiculous 5.9 yards after first contact.
The defense has also improved under new management, earning a top-35 rank in Havoc and allowing opponents to run methodical drives.
Coordinator Colin Hitschler has no issues with aggressiveness through his 3-3-5 personnel, sending blitz on 43% of defensive snaps with a 60% Success Rate.
There are a few concerning numbers for UCLA in the soft part of the schedule, including a near-dead last rank in penalties. UCLA averages 10 penalties a game, a total eclipsed only by Syracuse this season.
Oregon Ducks Betting Preview: Regrouping After Early Drama
After a single month of play, the Oregon Ducks have packed in enough storylines for an entire season.
Quarterback Dante Moore was tipping off plays on film in the opener against Boise State, as noted by Oklahoma State linebackers. The result was a Ducks loss in steamy Stillwater in Week 2.
Oregon regrouped in Week 3 against FCS Portland State, extracting the sour taste from a nonconference loss with an 84-0 whooping of the Vikings.
In a game against USC two weeks ago, Moore was carted off the field with a concussion after a late hit. The future NFL signal-caller doesn't have a timetable for a return, so Nebraska transfer Dylan Raiola has taken over the reins for Oregon.
The Oregon defense is still rounding into shape after preseason expectations had the Ducks challenging for the National Championship.
The Ducks are the seventh-best pass-rush team in the nation, as three edge players have combined to create at least 10 pressures.
Oregon has achieved a top-20 grade in tackling thanks to the three top tacklers recording just three missed tackles on the season.
While the analytics still have lingering negative numbers from the first two games of the season, this is the top third-down defense in the nation. On 52 opponent third downs, Oregon has allowed only 11 conversions through four games.
UCLA vs Oregon Pick, Betting Analysis
There's a massive strength-of-schedule difference between these two teams, with UCLA ranking 113th and Oregon coming in at 21st.
The first handicap is the Ducks' ability to slow down Knight and the Bruins' ground game. UCLA has a number of concepts in its arsenal, including zone read, power, man-blocking assignments and counter.
While most rushing attempts come in 11 personnel, a double-tight end set is most frequently seen when the Bruins run outside zone and counter. If there's an advantage for head coach Dan Lanning, these are the same concepts James Madison used in the CFP last December.
Oregon has yet to face an offense that utilizes 12 personnel in the run game, but its Success Rate against all the run concepts above has been neutral.
The Ducks' advantage will come in passing attempts by UCLA quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The former Tennessee signal-caller has a massive 30% drop in adjusted completion percentage under pressure, which Oregon will force with a top-10 pass rush.
The opposite can be noted for the UCLA defense, as its pass rush rank sits mid-FBS despite a heavy reliance on the blitz.
Raiola struggled under pressure while with Nebraska a season ago, leading to a turnover-worthy play rate jump from 2.2% to 7.3%. The difference with Oregon may be the outside weapons in the flats, which could provide relief against UCLA's blitzing.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for Oregon to win by two touchdowns, giving limited value to the Ducks in the market.
The biggest unknown in this game is Raiola's output after a full week of practice.
However, there's a heavy focus on UCLA's offense. Knight and Iamaleava will lead a pure ground-based attack with many negative statistics that fall in the passing game.
The Bruins have generated a poor Success Rate, and their pass blocking ranks come from one of the easiest schedules in the nation.
Look to the over on any Iamaleava sack props, but other wagers on the Bruins should focus on their team total under. Oregon may elect to put an additional defender in the box against a heavy UCLA rush attack that uses multiple run concepts.
The Ducks have missed just three tackles in the second level, so expect UCLA to be limited in terms of explosiveness.
Pick: UCLA Team Total Under 23
UCLA vs Oregon Betting Trends
