Sunday Morning Coffee: Week 11 college football projections

Sunday Morning Coffee: Week 11 college football projections article feature image

Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee, a short look at college football projected lines before release in Las Vegas or offshore. This weekly column examines where the point spread should open or trend. Hangover, overlook and general box score notes from the week’s previous action will be captured to help any college football investor get action on a number.

If you plan to hit openers, take a look at the projected point spreads for Week 11:

Date Away Home CW Line
Nov 7 Bowling Green Buffalo BUFF -8.5
Nov 7 Akron Miami Ohio M-OH -5.5
Nov 8 Eastern Michigan C. Michigan CMCH +1.5
Nov 8 Toledo Ohio OHIO +7.5
Nov 8 Kent State W. Michigan WMU -19
Nov 9 Georgia Southern Appalachian St. APP -16.5
Nov 9 Ball State N. Illinois NIU -27.5
Nov 9 North Carolina Pittsburgh PITT -5
Nov 10 Temple Cincinnati CIN -2
Nov 10 Washington Stanford STAN +4
Nov 11 Wyoming Air Force AFA -3.5
Nov 11 Oregon State Arizona ARIZ -18.5
Nov 11 Duke Army ARMY +3.5
Nov 11 Georgia Auburn AUB 0
Nov 11 Texas Tech Baylor BAY +8.5
Nov 11 North Carolina State Boston College BC +9
Nov 11 Middle Tennessee Charlotte CHAR +13.5
Nov 11 Florida State Clemson CLEM -19.5
Nov 11 Troy Coastal Carolina CC +14
Nov 11 USC Colorado COLO +10.5
Nov 11 Boise State Colorado St. CSUP +3
Nov 11 Tulane East Carolina ECU +7.5
Nov 11 Old Dominion FIU FIU -4.5
Nov 11 Virginia Tech Georgia Tech GT +2.5
Nov 11 Fresno State Hawaii HAW +6.5
Nov 11 Indiana Illinois ILL +12.5
Nov 11 Oklahoma State Iowa St. ISU +9
Nov 11 West Virginia Kansas St. KSU +0.5
Nov 11 Florida Atlantic La Tech LT +1
Nov 11 Virginia Louisville LOU -10
Nov 11 Arkansas LSU LSU -18.5
Nov 11 Western Kentucky Marshall MRSH -7
Nov 11 Michigan Maryland MD +16
Nov 11 Notre Dame Miami MIAMI +1
Nov 11 Nebraska Minnesota MINN -1.5
Nov 11 Alabama Mississippi St. MSST +14
Nov 11 Tennessee Missouri MIZZ -8
Nov 11 SMU Navy NAVY -7
Nov 11 San Jose State Nevada NEV -14.5
Nov 11 UTEP North Texas UNT -23
Nov 11 Purdue Northwestern NW -4.5
Nov 11 Michigan State Ohio St. OSU -17.5
Nov 11 TCU Oklahoma OKLA -9
Nov 11 ULL Ole Miss MISS -19.5
Nov 11 Rutgers Penn St. PSU -31.5
Nov 11 Southern Miss Rice RICE +12
Nov 11 Arkansas State South Alabama USA +5
Nov 11 Florida South Carolina SC -3
Nov 11 Wake Forest Syracuse SYR +3.5
Nov 11 Kansas Texas TEX -31
Nov 11 New Mexico Texas A&M TA&M -15.5
Nov 11 Georgia State Texas St. TXST +7.5
Nov 11 UConn UCF UCF -32
Nov 11 Arizona State UCLA UCLA +1.5
Nov 11 BYU UNLV UNLV -4.5
Nov 11 Washington State Utah UTAH -2
Nov 11 Kentucky Vanderbilt VAN -4
Nov 11 Iowa Wisconsin WISC -13.5
Legend: Coming off bye / Overlook-Hangover watch / Back to Back road travel / Neutral site


  • Buffalo is the only team in Week 11 coming off a bye week to face a team on back-to-back road travel, Bowling Green. The Bulls have bowl hopes, even with Ohio at the end of the November schedule. Bowling Green had an inspired effort against Kent, but make no mistake… the Golden Flashes had four turnovers in that contest. Take the team with three extra days of rest and bowl hopes.

  • Akron also comes off a 10-day bye week with travel to Miami. If the Zips have any hope of keeping pace with Ohio, they will need to win this game before the Nov. 14 showdown.

  • Toledo and Ohio represent the best #MACtion has to offer from the East and the West. While the Bobcats need this game to maintain a lead in the East, the Rockets can afford a division loss after beating NIU.

  • Pitt and North Carolina both come off bye weeks. The Heels are 1-8 and have no motivation for this trip, while Pitt sits at four wins with motivation for a bowl. The Panthers end the season with Virginia Tech and Miami, making UNC a must win.

  • Washington at Stanford is for the Pac-12 North. We could count Wazzu as a player in the North, but a visit to the Huskies on Nov. 25 should end those dreams. What do we see this early in the week with the Huskies-Trees? I will hit any Huskies -3 or better. Washington has the more efficient offense and defense.

  • No advanced stats in Auburn hosting Georgia this week, only motivation. The Bulldogs can lose this game and still make the SEC Championship game. War Eagle is in survival mode for the rest of the season. Both of these teams grade out top 25 in most advanced stats. Auburn does not have the offensive explosiveness that Georgia does. The Tigers’ defense will have their biggest test in Week 11.

  • NC State finds themselves in a two-game hangover (off Notre Dame, Clemson) to take on a team coming off a bye week, Boston College.

  • With the Appalachian State loss to ULM, Troy has a chance to build momentum to the Arkansas State game for a share of the #Funbelt title. Coastal Carolina comes off their best game in program history, a one-point loss to Arkansas. Hangovers exist even at the Sun Belt level, and the Chants apply to the rule.

  • I don’t think Boise State would ever tank, but what is there to play for in the contest against Colorado State? The Broncos are the only undefeated team in conference play through Week 10. If Boise loses this game in Fort Collins, only a win at home against Air Force is needed to host the conference championship.

  • Heartbreakers for both Cowboys and Clones. Iowa State ran out of gas in Morgantown while Oklahoma State couldn’t keep pace with the Sooners. This is a tough spot for both squads, and a first half under will be my initial look at this game.

  • Notre Dame and Miami will showcase the nation’s best in rushing offense and rushing defense. Both teams have been living on explosiveness, but the Irish have the advanced metrics in defending 20-plus yard plays.

  • Is there a better spot than Mississippi State hosting Alabama? The Tide come off LSU with Mercer in Week 12, while Cowbell struggled with UMass in Week 10. I project this game Bulldogs +13, while S&P+ will be around +10. The public will have their say in this game, and I plan to watch the market and take the best number on the Bulldogs.

  • Week 10 was all about Missouri, Florida and motivation. While we knew the Gators had issues after the firing of their coach, the Tigers executed perfectly on their track to a bowl game. Tennessee had an uninspiring effort against Southern Miss. The Vols’ season may be finished emotionally. I will be looking for Mizzou in a must-win situation against Tennessee as the Tigers march their way to a bowl.

  • Sparty and the Buckeyes will be tied in the Big Ten East standings, but Ohio State should be released as a three-score favorite over Michigan State. The Spartans have an excellent defense but do not harbor the offensive efficiency or explosiveness that the Buckeyes possess.

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