Sunday Morning Coffee: Week 11 college football projections

Nov 05, 2017, 10:30 AM EST

Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee, a short look at college football projected lines before release in Las Vegas or offshore. This weekly column examines where the point spread should open or trend. Hangover, overlook and general box score notes from the week’s previous action will be captured to help any college football investor get action on a number.

If you plan to hit openers, take a look at the projected point spreads for Week 11:

Date	Away	Home	CW Line
Nov 7	Bowling Green	Buffalo	BUFF -8.5
Nov 7	Akron	Miami Ohio	M-OH -5.5
Nov 8	Eastern Michigan	C. Michigan	CMCH +1.5
Nov 8	Toledo	Ohio	OHIO +7.5
Nov 8	Kent State	W. Michigan	WMU -19
Nov 9	Georgia Southern	Appalachian St.	APP -16.5
Nov 9	Ball State	N. Illinois	NIU -27.5
Nov 9	North Carolina	Pittsburgh	PITT -5
Nov 10	Temple	Cincinnati	CIN -2
Nov 10	Washington	Stanford	STAN +4
Nov 11	Wyoming	Air Force	AFA -3.5
Nov 11	Oregon State	Arizona	ARIZ -18.5
Nov 11	Duke	Army	ARMY +3.5
Nov 11	Georgia	Auburn	AUB 0
Nov 11	Texas Tech	Baylor	BAY +8.5
Nov 11	North Carolina State	Boston College	BC +9
Nov 11	Middle Tennessee	Charlotte	CHAR +13.5
Nov 11	Florida State	Clemson	CLEM -19.5
Nov 11	Troy	Coastal Carolina	CC +14
Nov 11	USC	Colorado	COLO +10.5
Nov 11	Boise State	Colorado St.	CSUP +3
Nov 11	Tulane	East Carolina	ECU +7.5
Nov 11	Old Dominion	FIU	FIU -4.5
Nov 11	Virginia Tech	Georgia Tech	GT +2.5
Nov 11	Fresno State	Hawaii	HAW +6.5
Nov 11	Indiana	Illinois	ILL +12.5
Nov 11	Oklahoma State	Iowa St.	ISU +9
Nov 11	West Virginia	Kansas St.	KSU +0.5
Nov 11	Florida Atlantic	La Tech	LT +1
Nov 11	Virginia	Louisville	LOU -10
Nov 11	Arkansas	LSU	LSU -18.5
Nov 11	Western Kentucky	Marshall	MRSH -7
Nov 11	Michigan	Maryland	MD +16
Nov 11	Notre Dame	Miami	MIAMI +1
Nov 11	Nebraska	Minnesota	MINN -1.5
Nov 11	Alabama	Mississippi St.	MSST +14
Nov 11	Tennessee	Missouri	MIZZ -8
Nov 11	SMU	Navy	NAVY -7
Nov 11	San Jose State	Nevada	NEV -14.5
Nov 11	UTEP	North Texas	UNT -23
Nov 11	Purdue	Northwestern	NW -4.5
Nov 11	Michigan State	Ohio St.	OSU -17.5
Nov 11	TCU	Oklahoma	OKLA -9
Nov 11	ULL	Ole Miss	MISS -19.5
Nov 11	Rutgers	Penn St.	PSU -31.5
Nov 11	Southern Miss	Rice	RICE +12
Nov 11	Arkansas State	South Alabama	USA +5
Nov 11	Florida	South Carolina	SC -3
Nov 11	Wake Forest	Syracuse	SYR +3.5
Nov 11	Kansas	Texas	TEX -31
Nov 11	New Mexico	Texas A&M	TA&M -15.5
Nov 11	Georgia State	Texas St.	TXST +7.5
Nov 11	UConn	UCF	UCF -32
Nov 11	Arizona State	UCLA	UCLA +1.5
Nov 11	BYU	UNLV	UNLV -4.5
Nov 11	Washington State	Utah	UTAH -2
Nov 11	UAB	UTSA	UTSA -8
Nov 11	Kentucky	Vanderbilt	VAN -4
Nov 11	Iowa	Wisconsin	WISC -13.5
Legend: Coming off bye / Overlook-Hangover watch / Back to Back road travel / Neutral site

Notes

Buffalo is the only team in Week 11 coming off a bye week to face a team on back-to-back road travel, Bowling Green. The Bulls have bowl hopes, even with Ohio at the end of the November schedule. Bowling Green had an inspired effort against Kent, but make no mistake… the Golden Flashes had four turnovers in that contest. Take the team with three extra days of rest and bowl hopes.
Akron also comes off a 10-day bye week with travel to Miami. If the Zips have any hope of keeping pace with Ohio, they will need to win this game before the Nov. 14 showdown.
Toledo and Ohio represent the best #MACtion has to offer from the East and the West. While the Bobcats need this game to maintain a lead in the East, the Rockets can afford a division loss after beating NIU.
Pitt and North Carolina both come off bye weeks. The Heels are 1-8 and have no motivation for this trip, while Pitt sits at four wins with motivation for a bowl. The Panthers end the season with Virginia Tech and Miami, making UNC a must win.
Washington at Stanford is for the Pac-12 North. We could count Wazzu as a player in the North, but a visit to the Huskies on Nov. 25 should end those dreams. What do we see this early in the week with the Huskies-Trees? I will hit any Huskies -3 or better. Washington has the more efficient offense and defense.
No advanced stats in Auburn hosting Georgia this week, only motivation. The Bulldogs can lose this game and still make the SEC Championship game. War Eagle is in survival mode for the rest of the season. Both of these teams grade out top 25 in most advanced stats. Auburn does not have the offensive explosiveness that Georgia does. The Tigers’ defense will have their biggest test in Week 11.
NC State finds themselves in a two-game hangover (off Notre Dame, Clemson) to take on a team coming off a bye week, Boston College.
With the Appalachian State loss to ULM, Troy has a chance to build momentum to the Arkansas State game for a share of the #Funbelt title. Coastal Carolina comes off their best game in program history, a one-point loss to Arkansas. Hangovers exist even at the Sun Belt level, and the Chants apply to the rule.
I don’t think Boise State would ever tank, but what is there to play for in the contest against Colorado State? The Broncos are the only undefeated team in conference play through Week 10. If Boise loses this game in Fort Collins, only a win at home against Air Force is needed to host the conference championship.
Heartbreakers for both Cowboys and Clones. Iowa State ran out of gas in Morgantown while Oklahoma State couldn’t keep pace with the Sooners. This is a tough spot for both squads, and a first half under will be my initial look at this game.
Notre Dame and Miami will showcase the nation’s best in rushing offense and rushing defense. Both teams have been living on explosiveness, but the Irish have the advanced metrics in defending 20-plus yard plays.
Is there a better spot than Mississippi State hosting Alabama? The Tide come off LSU with Mercer in Week 12, while Cowbell struggled with UMass in Week 10. I project this game Bulldogs +13, while S&P+ will be around +10. The public will have their say in this game, and I plan to watch the market and take the best number on the Bulldogs.
Week 10 was all about Missouri, Florida and motivation. While we knew the Gators had issues after the firing of their coach, the Tigers executed perfectly on their track to a bowl game. Tennessee had an uninspiring effort against Southern Miss. The Vols’ season may be finished emotionally. I will be looking for Mizzou in a must-win situation against Tennessee as the Tigers march their way to a bowl.
Sparty and the Buckeyes will be tied in the Big Ten East standings, but Ohio State should be released as a three-score favorite over Michigan State. The Spartans have an excellent defense but do not harbor the offensive efficiency or explosiveness that the Buckeyes possess.