Week 10 Saturday six pack: Six college football pounders
Each week, I will pick out a new variety six pack for Saturday morning in addition to my six favorite situational sides on the college football card. Short and simple.
Michigan State +10.5
Penn State has to be physically and emotionally drained after that heartbreaking loss to Ohio State last week. Now, the Nittany Lions must get up for their second consecutive road game – and third in the last four weeks – for a road game against a Michigan State team that can defend the run. If you are into trends, since 2005, top 10 teams are just 27-48-6 (36 percent) ATS after a loss – h/t betlabs. Don’t be shocked if Sparty wins this game outright.
Back to the Minutemen, who have been kind to us lately. Ross Comis is in at quarterback, but I actually don’t think it makes much of a difference. I don’t expect a fully focused effort from Mississippi State, who has Alabama on deck. As a result, expect Mullen to pull his starters even sooner than he normally would in a blowout. UMass should come in with some confidence after winning two straight games. Their offense, which has scored 30-plus in three straight – and 50-plus in two of their last three – should find the endzone once or twice, which should allow them to stay within this number. Additionally, UMass can draw on their experience earlier in the season in a close loss at Tennessee, a noon kick on the road at an SEC school.
Flat spot for Purdue after losing two straight games by a combined three points. Can’t see the energy being there for a noon kick against the Illini. Purdue doesn’t have much of a home-field advantage, especially for this type of game. The Illini defense rates high as far as limiting explosiveness, which should help them keep this close in a low-scoring game. I expect Illinois to have a little extra motivation for the game they gave away to Purdue last year in overtime after blowing a late touchdown lead and missing a 41-yard field goal for the win at the end of regulation.
Georgia Tech finally goes down ATS today. This is the best true situational spot of the day, as the Yellow Jackets have this trip to Charlottesville sandwiched in between games against Clemson and Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers have the scheme and roster to contain the option. I expect a fully motivated Virginia team after back-to-back losses, as this might be their last legit chance at getting to six wins for a bowl shot. Wahoos outright.
After Stanford escaped last week in Corvallis, I expect a re-focused effort, especially considering they are seeking revenge from an embarrassing 42-16 home loss at the hands of Washington State last season. Big matchup advantages for the Tree as well. The Stanford secondary can contain the Washington State passing attack, but the Washington State defense can not contain Stanford’s explosive rushing attack, especially since Bryce Love will play. Extra day of prep should also help the Cardinal.
Have you seen USC’s defensive numbers against explosiveness in the run game? Don’t overthink this one. Simply trust Khalil Tate, who has run for over 800 yards (on just 59 carries!) and eight touchdowns over his last four games. Also, Arizona was absolutely embarrassed last year at home against USC to the tune of 48-14, which I’m assuming they were reminded of all throughout the week.
Week 10 Six-Pack Recap:
- Michigan St +10.5
- UMass +31.5
- Illinois +14
- Virginia +7
- Stanford -1
- Arizona +7
Week 1: 0-0 +0.00 units
Week 2: 0-0 +0.00 units
Week 3: 5-1 +4.07 units
Week 4: 4-2 +1.84 units
Week 5: 5-1 +3.87 units
Week 6: 1-4-1 -3.27 units
Week 7: 2-3-1 -1.22 units
Week 8: 3-3 -0.26 units
Week 9: 3-3 -0.19 units
Total: 23-17-2 (57.5%) +4.84 units