Week 5 Saturday 6 Pack: Six College Football Pounders
SMU/UConn Over 76
Since I only have five situational spots I like using current lines, I am throwing in a total this week. SMU has put up point totals of 58, 54, 36, and 44 in their four games this season. The Mustangs, currently ranked second in the nation in Offensive SRS, face a UConn team that is ranked dead last in the country in total defense, and passing yards allowed (413). I think #PonyUpTempo realistically could get to 60. UConn, who actually comes into this matchup with a top-25 offense, should have no problems scoring against a weak SMU defense. SMU might also be without their two starting corners this week, including Jordan Wyatt, who has been one of the best in the nation at the position.
Eastern Michigan +14.5
I just don't see how Kentucky can possibly get up for this game after that devastating loss last week to Florida, a game they had circled since camp started. This spot screams letdown in Lexington.
Northern Illinois +10
Great spot to catch the Aztecs overlooking the Huskies. San Diego State stole a win last week against Air Force and will hit the road again next week for another conference game. Northern Illinois should be the more rested and prepared team coming off of their bye week. The Huskies should also have confidence on the road after their upset victory as an 11-point underdog against Nebraska earlier in the season in Lincoln. San Diego State relies on a strong running game, something NIU excels at defending; the Huskies' defense come into this game tied for first in the nation (Michigan, South Florida) allowing only 2.2 yards per rush attempt.
Massachusetts +5
Back to the well with the Minutemen, who covered the 28 easily at Tennessee for us last week. I actually think they can take a lot from that close loss. UMass, currently sitting at 0-5, should be motivated to get their first win of the season before heading into a bye week. UMass has at least been competitive in each game, losing by margins of 3, 10, 10, 8, and 4. I can't really see Ohio, who is playing their second consecutive road game, getting up for a trip to Amherst to play a winless UMass team, especially sandwiched in between two conference games.
South Carolina +7.5
It is dangerous to fade Kevin Sumlin this time of year, as he owns the best September ATS record of any active coach, but I have to trust the favorable South Carolina spot. The Gamecocks' offense has looked horrific since the injury to wide receiver Deebo Samuel, whom they also miss on special teams. However, they did finally show some life in the fourth quarter of their comeback win over Louisiana Tech. I think they can carry over some of that momentum into College Station against a weak secondary. The Aggies' offense has been impressive, but they have struggled in the red zone, only scoring 30 touchdowns in 54 trips. The South Carolina "bend but don't break" defense has been strong in the red zone, only allowing touchdowns on 33 percent of opponent trips; they should force a few field goals to keep this close. Ultimately, I am simply fading a Texas A&M team coming off of an OT win over Arkansas with Alabama on deck.
Florida Atlantic -3
I hate to back Lane Kiffin, but the Owls should be the more motivated team in their home conference opener against a depleted MTSU squad. FAU, who has lost nine straight in this series, gave up 77 points to the Blue Raiders in a loss last season. I'm sure the staff reminded them of that loss all week. More importantly, Middle Tennessee will once again be without star quarterback Brent Stockill. Their offense, which has looked mediocre at best without Stockstill under center, is also dealing with a number of other injuries at running back and wide receiver. Their best player on offense, Richie James, one of the most underrated wideouts in the country, will most likely also sit (or at least be very limited).
Week 5 Six-Pack Recap:
- SMU/Connecticut Over 76
- Eastern Michigan +14.5
- Northern Illinois +10
- Massachusetts +5
- South Carolina +7.5
- Florida Atlantic -3
Week 1: 0-0 +0.00 units
Week 2: 0-0 +0.00 units
Week 3: 5-1 +4.07 units
Week 4: 4-2 +1.84 units
Week 5: 0-0 +0.0 units
Total: 9-3 +5.91 units
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