Auburn-Purdue Betting Guide: Will Tigers Show Up For 2018 Music City Bowl?
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jarrett Stidham and Rondale Moore
2018 Music City Bowl Betting Odds: Auburn-Purdue
- Odds: Auburn -3
- Over/Under: 55.5
- Date: Friday, Dec. 28
- Location: Nashville, Tenn.
- Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
>> All odds as of Thursday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time bowl odds and win probabilities on your bets.
Yes, Auburn’s players and coaches will be there physically for the 2018 Music City Bowl. But do the Tigers really want to be there after a disappointing season?
Purdue had an up-and-down year that featured a blowout win over Ohio State and a home loss to Eastern Michigan. It’s capable of dominant offensive performances and complete lapses.
The Boilermakers did retain coach Jeff Brohm after he turned down Louisville and should be motivated for this game.
Odds Moves for Auburn-Purdue
By Danny Donahue
Although neither team has been able to establish itself as the public consensus pick (Auburn has a slight 51% advantage), this line has not stayed put since its release. Auburn opened as a 5-point favorite over Purdue, but has since fallen to the key number of -3 as 70% of actual money wagered has landed on the Boilermakers (see live data here).
The public has taken a liking to the over, which has drawn 80% of bets. That’s been enough to inch the total up from 54.5 to 55.5 despite those bets accounting for just 60% of the money.
Trends to Know for Auburn-Purdue
By John Ewing
Purdue has averaged 480.5 yards and 33.9 points per game. Auburn has limited opponents to 358.6 yards and 19.3 points per game.
When a good defense (400 or fewer yards, less than 25 points) plays a good offensive team (450 or more yards, 30 or more points) in a bowl game, the defensive team has gone 79-53-1 (60%) ATS since 2005.
Purdue Defense Gains One, Loses One to Injury
Purdue will welcome back safety Jacob Thieneman, which is huge against a pass-happy Auburn team.
However, it will be without star defensive lineman Lorenzo Neal, who was injured in the finale against Indiana. While Auburn’s strong suit isn’t offensive line play, this is a real concern for a Purdue defensive front that doesn’t have a ton of depth.
Auburn’s defense has been victimized by huge plays all season, ranking 105th in IsoPPP+ and 89th in Big Play Rate (20+ yards). That spells disaster against an explosive Purdue offense that ranks 10th and 16th in those two respective categories.
Look for a huge game out of Rondale Moore against an Auburn defense that allowed more pass yards than any team in the SEC.
It’s also the same story on the other side of the ball, as Auburn’s offense has lacked explosiveness all year long (100th), while Purdue has done a solid job in containing big plays this season (30th in IsoPPP+).
Bottom line, Auburn ranks outside the top 100 in IsoPPP+ on both sides of the ball, while Purdue ranks in the top 30.
The Boilermakers should get a few easy scores on big plays, while Auburn will have to consistently grind its way down the field.
Purdue Deserved Better Than 6-6
By Steve Petrella
Purdue is not your average 6-6 Big Ten team. It had a Second Order Win Total of 7.5, meaning its underlying metrics resemble a 7 or 8 win team, not a 6-6 team. The Boilermakers lost their first three games by a combined eight points, and had a postgame win expectancy of at least 60% in all of them.
Purdue’s had some real stinkers — losing 41-10 at Minnesota, falling to Eastern Michigan as a 17-point favorite (???), and suffering a letdown defeat to Michigan State after blowing out Ohio State. But at their best, the Boilermakers are awesome.
Purdue Should Be More Motivated
Does Auburn (a preseason top-10 team) really care about playing in the Music City Bowl against Purdue? Judging by its performance and effort level last year, I think not — and that was in a New Year’s Six bowl game.
Players go to Auburn to compete for national championships, not play in rinky dink Friday afternoon bowls against Purdue.
On the other hand, this is a huge game for the Purdue program (just look at ticket sales; 11,000 in the first week) and the team should be fired up after becoming bowl eligible in the final week of the season, especially after Brohm decided to stay in West Lafayette.
I’d give Purdue the motivational edge here.
Bet to Watch
By Collin Wilson
There are plenty of reasons to believe that Auburn will not show up for this bowl game. After multiple trips to a New Years Six games, the 2018 campaign was a bit of disappointment with a 7-5 record.
Gus Malzahn took over play-calling duties after the season came to an end, resulting in offensive coordinator Chip Lindsay moving on to Kansas. The Tigers were dysfunctional on offense all year.
Purdue is on the opposite end of the motivation spectrum. They kept Brohm after a potential poach from Louisville, his alma mater.
The Boilermakers are excited to be back in bowl play after starting the season 0-3 with losses to Northwestern, Eastern Michigan and Missouri.
Both of these teams are just a couple of hours drive to Nashville, but it’s the Boilermaker alumni and fans who have gobbled up all of their tickets.
Statistically, this could be a long afternoon for the Auburn. Malzahn’s defense struggled against explosive plays all season, culminating in an overall rank of 105th in opponent IsoPPP. The biggest culprit is standard downs explosiveness, which could result in a big day for Purdue running back D.J. Knox and wide receiver Rondale Moore.
This will be an emotional game for Purdue, as quarterback David Blough is one of many seniors on this roster playing his last game. I am backing the Boilermakers as the wrap up a solid season for a rising program.
Shop around for a +3.5, as there are still plenty out there at the time of publication.
Collin’s Pick: Purdue +3.5