The Ball State Cardinals take on the Northern Illinois Huskies in DeKalb, Illinois. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.
Northern Illinois is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -210. The total is set at 41 points.
Here’s my Ball State vs. Northern Illinois prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 25, 2025.
Ball State vs Northern Illinois Prediction
- Ball State vs. Northern Illinois Pick: Ball State +5.5 (-110, bet365)
My Northern Illinois vs. Ball State best bet is on the Cardinals to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Ball State vs Northern Illinois Odds
| Ball State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 41 -110o / -110u | +175 |
| Northern Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 41 -110o / -110u | -210 |
- Ball State vs Northern Illinois point spread: Northern Illinois -5.5 (-110), Ball State +5.5 (-110)
- Ball State vs Northern Illinois over/under: 41 (-110o / -110u)
- Ball State vs Northern Illinois moneyline: Ball State +175, Northern Illinois -210
Ball State vs Northern Illinois Pick
This game activated one of our PRO Betting Systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
Mature Market Moves is a college football system that capitalizes on the influence of sharp money when it differs meaningfully from public betting patterns.
In the regular season, when the spread falls between one and six points, these games are often competitive and decided by narrow margins, where line efficiency is critical.
By isolating matchups where the percentage of money wagered is significantly higher than the percentage of tickets, the system highlights situations where larger, more informed bets are backing one side while casual bettors are spread differently.
Limiting the sample to games five and later ensures teams have established trends and reliable data to target sharper action.
This combination of tight spreads, mature markets, and a clear split between sharp money and public opinion creates an edge in which following the money side outperforms expectations.
This system has been profitable in the long term and is 14-11 ATS this season.
However, a few other trends point me toward Ball State.
First, you want to back Northern Illinois head coach Thomas Hammock as an underdog and fade him as a favorite. His teams always play up and down to competition, as the Huskies are typically a defense-first team with a rush-heavy offense. Under Hammock, the Huskies are an astounding 6-21-1 ATS when laying points, including 5-19 ATS in MAC play.
Additionally, MAC home-field advantage is minuscule and almost always overvalued. Since 2005, MAC home teams in league play are 444-521-15 ATS (46% win, -10.6% ROI).
Altogether, this feels like a perfect storm to back the Cardinals.
It's also worth mentioning that these teams are very similar in style and performance.
Ball State ranks 131st nationally in EPA per Play (-0.21), while Northern Illinois ranks 129th (-0.18). Ball State Ranks 131st nationally in Net Success Rate (-8.4%), while Northern Illinois ranks 136th (-13.3%).
I'd likely project this game as a coin flip on a neutral field, and wouldn't give Northern Illinois more than three points for home-field advantage. Our Action Network PRO Projections only make Ball State a 3.5-point underdog.
I'm willing to bet that this is a run-first, defensive-minded, ugly, low-scoring ballgame that ends with a late-game-winning field goal.
Therefore, I'm backing Kiael Kelly and the Cardinals keep this one within five.
Pick: Ball State +5.5 (-110, bet365)
