It's NFL Draft week and, as usual in the world of football, all eyes are on the quarterbacks.
The Raiders have the No. 1 overall pick and are widely expected to take Indiana's Fernando Mendoza. But much like last year, it's another April where it's not a particularly loaded quarterback draft.
That's always tricky in a league where QBs remain supreme, and it often means the race for that next guy down the draft board dominates the conversation in mock drafts leading up to Draft Day.
Enter Alabama QB Ty Simpson, who is this year's popular target du jour in every mock draft trade up into the end of the first round.
But is Ty Simpson worthy of a first-round draft pick? And how should bettors approach Simpson in the 2026 NFL Draft?
Ty Simpson Scouting Report
Before we dig into Ty Simpson, take a look at my scouting report for Fernando Mendoza if you haven't yet. There, I talk about using completion percentage, interception rate and number of collegiate starts as starting metrics to evaluate a QB, so let's start there.
Though Simpson was at Alabama four years, he started for only one season. That means he heads to the NFL with just 15 starts, a worryingly tiny number that's even smaller than usual compared to peers in an era with pandemic- and transfer-extended careers.
Simpson backed up Jalen Milroe for two of those years, not exactly a glowing review for a QB most Bama fans seemed relieved to move on from, a guy that was drafted late in the third round and used as much as a gimmick as quarterback his NFL rookie season.
The list of quarterbacks drafted in the first round with under 20 collegiate starts over the last decade is ugly, including names like Anthony Richardson, Mitchell Trubisky, Trey Lance, Dwayne Haskins and Mark Sanchez. Lotta busts on that list.
Number of starts matters because it's more data to evaluate a player before he has to play the toughest, most important position in team sports. How do you know if a player looked good mostly because of a soft schedule? What if his struggles were due to an underlying injury? Did the player show development and progression?
These are all concerns for Simpson.
It's a double whammy in conjunction with Simpson already being 23 years old — and he'll be 24 by the end of the NFL season. Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and C.J. Stroud are 24, for comparison, and they're all proven quality quarterbacks with multiple seasons in the NFL.
Simpson has one season of inconsistent football, in college.
So how did that season go?
In a word: inconsistent.
After waiting all that time to start, Simpson was miserable in his debut, completing just 54% of his passes against Florida State. He was worse in his final collegiate game, throwing for just 67 yards against Indiana in the College Football Playoff and eventually leaving with a rib injury.
Simpson was mostly good in the first half of the season but terrible in the second half as he reportedly played hurt. He had just eight touchdowns in his final seven games and didn't top 232 yards passing in any of his final five contests, averaging 156 yards per game during that stretch.
Simpson finished his career with a 64% completion percentage.
That's not terrible, but it's certainly not good, especially considering the talent surrounding Simpson. Ryan Williams was The Next Big Thing at wide receiver a year ago, a future top-10 draft pick. This year, Williams and Simpson never got on the same page.
Simpson's accuracy is inconsistent at best. He often misses high, and his ball placement can be all over the place, which makes it difficult for his receivers to generate yards after the catch.
And while Simpson was certainly hurt by a number of drops by his receivers, there's a fair question about how much of that was due to Simpson's funky timing and ball placement as much as being on the pass-catchers.
The one metric of those three starting blocks that holds up well for Ty Simpson is his career 1.0% interception rate. But even that was buoyed by luck, since his Turnover Worthy Play rate of 3.0% at PFF ranked 60th of 168 quarterbacks.
Simpson can be aggressive to a fault, and he does not handle pressure well, particularly blitzes. Some of Simpson's biggest plays this season were him running backwards far too long and chucking — it's great those worked out, but that's not good, nor reliable, process.
For a league that increasingly values QB floor and stability, there are just far too many negative plays.
PFF graded Simpson 45.7 under pressure, just 87th overall. He ranks only 31st percentile in sack rate and 44th percentile avoiding negative plays, and his 17.7% pressure-to-sack rate ranks 94th of 168 QBs. His time to throw ranks 136th.
When Simpson is at his best, one thing scouts seem to like most is his ability to process the game, read the field and make quick decisions. His supposed elite mind for the game and anticipation are perhaps his one standout trait.
But those traits may already be somewhat maxed out as the four-year-senior son of a football coach, and it's concerning that those strengths appeared to disappear over the back half of the season as that process repeatedly went awry.
None of this means Simpson can't be an NFL starting quarterback, or even a good one.
But they probably mean he shouldn't be a first-round pick, particularly at 6-foot-1 with a slight frame and a weight that dipped below 200 over the back half of the season. He's also a complete non-threat as a runner.
A smaller, older player with a modest-at-best arm and athleticism is not the sort of guy you gamble your entire franchise on.
Simpson's size and pedigree often get compared to guys like Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy, and the league increasingly values plug-and-play guys that can fit into a Kyle Shanahan-type system. But Garoppolo nearly fell to the third round and Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant.
Where Will Simpson Get Drafted, and How Do We Bet Him on Draft Night?
Ty Simpson might turn out to be a quality NFL quarterback, but he simply does not have the profile of a first-round pick.
Just about anywhere you read or listen, you hear scouts and analysts say much of the same about Simpson — there's potential there with enough decision making, natural feel, and game management to merit investing, but nobody seems particularly in love with Simpson.
Nobody seems to NEED Ty Simpson.
You have to need a quarterback to take him in the first round, particularly to trade up for him.
Right now, Simpson's draft over/under sits at 24.5, with the Browns at No. 24 in need of a quarterback, and every book is heavily juiced to the over. Books are all but telling us Simpson will not go in the top 24 picks.
Look at the teams currently slated to pick after that to close out the first round: Bears, Bills, 49ers, Texans, Chiefs, Dolphins, Patriots and Seahawks. All of those teams but Miami have their QB.
That means either Miami drafts Simpson at No. 30 or the only likely way Simpson gets into the first round is by a team trading up for him, like every mock draft and its uncle will predict this week in the name of content.
Teams are desperate for quarterbacks, Simpson appears to be the best one available past pick No. 1, and there will be all sorts of talk about fifth-year contract options and GMs extending timelines.
None of those are particularly good reasons to draft a quarterback in the first round — but has that stopped teams before?
It feels like this happens every single year.
Quarterback is so uniquely important that we do this every April heading into the draft. Everyone agrees on a top tier of quarterbacks but gets bored, and then we spend two months talking about the next guy on the list and slowly inch him up mock drafts.
Last year, of course, the fringe QB in question was Shedeur Sanders. He didn't go top 10 or even first round. He didn't even get drafted on Day 2! He was finally, mercifully chosen at No. 144 — in round five.
The year before that was a rare exception to the rule. Michael Penix Jr. was the late riser before a draft day stunner, going No. 8 to Atlanta.
How about a few other names everyone thought might sneak into the first round on draft day? Ready for a blast from the past?
In 2023, it was Hendon Hooker. He ended up falling to 68th. The year before that, Malik Willis dropped to 86th. Some other names over the previous decade: Drew Lock (2019; drafted 42nd), Paxton Lynch (2016; 26th), and Garoppolo (2014; 62nd).
Only one of those hyped prospects snuck into the first round. Most ended up closer to the third round.
Some of them weren't even the next quarterback taken.
I'm not convinced Simpson is a lock to be the second quarterback off the board either.
Garrett Nussmeier is a relatively similar prospect, with similar size and arm profile. He had a rough second year as a starter playing through injuries all season, but who's to say Simpson wouldn't have had a similar setback season with another year as a starter?
Nussmeier can rip throws and profiles as at least a high-end backup with some starter potential, a la Garoppolo.
I'm not positive I'd prefer Nussmeier to Simpson, but if one of them costs a third-round pick and the other requires a trade up into the first, it's a no contest.
I'm just not sure that trade up is coming.
And that brings us back to old faithful, my favorite bet to make almost every draft season: the under on projected first-round QBs.
Simpson has minus odds to be taken in the first round at every book, and though those odds are fading, expect them to rise in the final stretch before the draft. This is just what happens with QBs on draft week. There's always buzz.
Bet Under 1.5 QBs drafted in the first round at +160 at bet365.
Shop around for the best number — and shop all week long, because that price may well rise as we approach Thursday night. It's often at its absolute peak on Thursday, when all the buzz is at its buzziest, when you'll feel least comfortable betting it.
And that's usually when you should double down and bet it again.
I'll also play a small escalator by investing in Nussmeier to be the second QB drafted, behind Mendoza.
Simpson to be the second QB drafted is trading at an absurd 97% at Kalshi as we head into draft week. Precious few things should be viewed with that much certainty in the unpredictable draft.
Simpson is trading at 13% no if you want that route, but in a terrible QB draft, Nussmeier appears to be consensus 3rd to Simpson's 2nd. If Simpson slides into the second, those two could end up going very near each other — and Nussmeier could jump ahead.
Nussmeier is trading at just 3% to be the second quarterback drafted at Kalshi, and that's a must-add position. He's +1600 at bet365, if you prefer, but the prediction market pricing offer is far superior here.
Maybe everything goes chalk and Simpson really is a trade target for the Cardinals or another team at the end of the first round.
But that's not what history says usually happens on draft night, and besides — when has the draft ever gone as expected?
