The first round of the 2026 NFL Draft takes place on Thursday in Pittsburgh, Pa., and I have you covered with three NFL Draft props.
The markets I'm targeting include the team to draft USC wide receiver Makai Lemon, the draft position of Texas Tech EDGE David Bailey, and the over/under on quarterbacks taken in the first round.
Let's dig into my NFL Draft props and picks for the first round.
2026 NFL Draft Props & Picks
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Makai Lemon Drafted to Giants (+2400)
The New York Giants made big waves this past weekend when they dealt defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence to the Cincinnati Bengals in exchange for the 10th overall selection in Thursday's NFL Draft.
For a Giants team already drafting inside the top 10 — they also hold the 5th pick — it surely makes you wonder what Giants general manager GM Joe Schoen has up his sleeve for the first round.
For a young Giants squad still in rebuild mode, they could absolutely use another playmaker on offense.
The G-Men hit in the 2024 NFL Draft, when they selected Malik Nabers with the No. 6 pick. The LSU product has already proven to be on the best receivers in the NFL.
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For a squad that already landed its running back of the future in Cam Skattebo, they could absolutely use another WR to play alongside Nabers.
In a very impressive 2026 receiving class, three WRs are projected to be taken inside the top 15 on Thursday night: Carnell Tate (Ohio State), Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State) and Makai Lemon (USC).
Most scouts project that Tyson and Tate will be the first two receivers taken, which leaves the Giants in great shape to potentially take Lemon.
Lemon boasts impressive athleticism; he excels in the slot with reliable hands and ball skills. For a Giants offense that already has its X-receiver, the USC product would complement Nabers wonderfully in the slot.
The Trojans have produced several elite receivers in recent years who have found success at the pro level, notably the Lions’ Amon-Ra St Brown, the Falcons' Drake London and the Steelers' Michael Pittman Jr.
This is an extreme value play that you can take at +2400 on Kalshi.
Pick: Makai Lemon (WR, USC) Drafted to Giants (+2400)
David Bailey Drafted #2 Overall (+164)
With the second overall pick in the NFL Draft, the New York Jets are widely projected to select either Ohio State linebacker Arvel Reese or Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey.
While there is no doubt that Reese has long-term potential (due to his impressive versatility and developmental potential), Bailey is a polished prospect poised to make more of an immediate impact.
The Jets are not exactly in the best position to wait on a high-upside talent to find his footing in the NFL as Aaron Glenn’s bunch needs to improvement their pass rush as soon as possible.
After playing three seasons at Stanford, Bailey transferred to Texas Tech for his senior season and helped lead the Red Raiders to their first Big-12 championship, and then onward to the College Football Playoffs.
Bailey led the FBS in sacks last season with 14.5. He is the best pass rusher in the draft, having recorded a 21.3% pressure rate last season. After trading Jermaine Johnson, the Jets could surely use a replacement.
While Reese is the current favorite to be selected second overall, I favor New York going with Texas Tech product. At Kalshi, you can wager on our value play for David Bailey to be the second player off the board at +164.
Pick: David Bailey (EDGE, Texas Tech) — Drafted #2 Overall (+164)
QBs Drafted in First Round — Under 1.5 (-115)
For my last prop, I'm targeting the number of quarterbacks that will be taken in the first round. The over/under is set at 1.5.
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza will likely be selected first overall by the Las Vegas Raiders after winning the Heisman Trophy and leading the Hoosiers to a national championship.
But while Mendoza is a lock, it's a bit murky after him.
Alabama's Ty Simpson is widely projected to be the second QB to drafted on Thursday. That said, after having watched the majority of Alabama’s games last season, saying I'm out on Simpson would be a massive understatement.
While many speak to Simpson’s poise in the pocket and impressive arm strength, I see a prospect that lacks the athleticism and overall awareness to succeed at the next level. I am concerned about his lack of accuracy and his tendency to hold the ball far too long.
Simpson was extremely overrated for most of last season, and I have zero faith in a guy who succumbed to heavy pass rushes at the collegiate level. The 23-year-old Simpson often panics in the pocket and recklessly throws downfield; it's hard to imagine him finding success in the NFL when he couldn't handle pressure in college.
While there is definitely a chance that a team takes a shot on him late in the first round, there are many scouts aligned with my evaluation on him.
Simpson is a highly touted prospect simply because he played in Tuscaloosa, and I would be beyond shocked if he is ever a reliable starting QB in the NFL.
I will trust my own read on this one and hope that front offices feel the same way.
On Kalshi, you can wager on under 1.5 Quarterbacks at -115.
Pick: Under 1.5 QBs Drafted in 1st Round (-115)
