The Bowling Green Falcons take on the Louisville Cardinals in Louisville, KY. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Louisville is favored by 26.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -5000. The total is set at 52.5 points.
Here are my Bowling Green vs. Louisville predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 20, 2025.
Bowling Green vs Louisville Prediction
- Bowling Green vs. Louisville Pick: Louisville Team Total Under 40.5
My Louisville vs. Bowling Green best bet is on the Cardinals team total under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Bowling Green vs Louisville Odds
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+26.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +1600 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-26.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -5000 |
- Bowling Green vs Louisville point spread: Louisville -26.5
- Bowling Green vs Louisville over/under: 52.5 points
- Bowling Green vs Louisville moneyline: Bowling Green +1600, Louisville -5000
Bowling Green vs Louisville Preview
Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview: Not Enough Offense
Support for Bowling Green football hasn't been this high in over a decade. The Falcons pulled off a 23-13 upset over Liberty in front of Doyt Perry Stadium's largest crowd since 2015 (a previous high-water mark set in Bowling Green's rivalry game against Toledo) and improved to 2-1 on the season.
The Eddie George effect is very real.
But now the Falcons find themselves hitting the road to play 2-0 Louisville, which comes off a bye week and hasn't played since September 5.
Under Scot Loeffler, Bowling Green was extremely competitive against power-conference opponents, nearly knocking off Texas A&M andPenn State last year and crushing Georgia Tech the year before.
But these aren't Loeffler's Falcons anymore.
The formula through three games has been to run the ball, slow the pace down and grind out possessions on offense.
Defensively, Bowling Green forces a ton of turnovers and keeps everything in front of it. That strategy worked optimally against Liberty and kept the game against Cincinnati within reason (Bowling Green lost 34-20 thanks to a late few scores, but it did cover the number).
Quarterback Drew Pyne has been about as listless as any in the MAC and is clearly not the same caliber as Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak. It hurts the Bowling Green offense to have a rather mediocre quarterback, and that's the primary culprit for why it hasn't scored more than 26 points yet this season.
Cincinnati was able to score on its last three drives against the Falcons' defense. When faced with bigger and more talented rosters, this isn't a team fully capable of putting them on upset watch.
Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview: Concerns Over Moss
Louisville remains a mystery in 2025.
In Week 1, the Cardinals smoked an inferior FCS opponent, beating Eastern Kentucky, 51-17. In Week 2, they struggled for the majority of the game against one of the top Group of Five teams, James Madison, which has a roster more in line with a power-conference school.
So, where does that leave us? Should we be concerned about Louisville's 28-14 win over James Madison or confident that it played subpar and still grounded out a victory?
One place of concern lies in quarterback Miller Moss.
Through two games, Moss has just two touchdown passes and has completed less than 60% of his passes against the Dukes.
There are two interceptions on his ledger, but neither was really his fault, as both went off the hands (and the second, off knees and toes) of his receivers. At that point, Louisville was already up 41-0.
The star of the show so far has been running back Isaac Brown, who surpassed 100 yards on the ground in each of his first two games.
However, some offensive line concerns could put a damper on this offensive output. Well-disguised James Madison blitzes resulted in several hits and a few sacks on Moss.
The defensive backs sat off in coverage and didn't allow much behind them. That defensive game plan led to just 14 points until the fourth quarter.
Defensively, Louisville is down a key starter, linebacker Stanquan Clark, who's out for the season.
Bowling Green vs Louisville Pick, Betting Analysis
Bowling Green opened as a +27.5 underdog, and the line decreased to +25.5 as of Wednesday morning.
James Madison rosters much more talent than Bowling Green — aggregate power ratings suggest about a 10-point difference between the two teams on a neutral field.
But the approach on defense is fairly similar and a proven foot in the brake of the Louisville offense.
Does that mean Bowling Green will hold Louisville to 14 points through three quarters? Almost certainly not.
But it does mean that Bowling Green's pace and unwillingness to allow explosive plays could keep this game within reason, even on the road. Players like Eriq George and David Afogho were able to disrupt Liberty's backfield without Bowling Green sending too many rushers.
The Falcons have a tougher test against Louisville's offensive line, but they performed against a decent line last weekend. Others notched tackles for loss and pressures against Cincinnati, too.
Bowling Green's philosophy to sit on the ball and play a shorter football game — coupled with a defense that's just frisky enough to be annoying — could throw Moss and this Louisville offense out of its rhythm just enough to keep the game within reason.
Rather than bank on Bowling Green's offense doing enough lifting to cover any spread, I'm taking Louisville under its lofty team total on Saturday.
Pick: Louisville Team Total Under 40.5 Points (-110, FanDuel)
