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The No. 8 BYU Cougars (5-0, 3-0 Big 12) host the No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-0) in a top-10 showdown between undefeated teams on Saturday, Oct. 17, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
This game marks one of the biggest in the history of LaVell Edwards Stadium, but it won't be easy for the Cougars.
BYU has picked up back-to-back wins over TCU (17-10) and Iowa State (24-10), but this game against Notre Dame will be a major step up in class.
With running back LJ Martin set to miss the game with an injury, the Cougars will rely heavily on quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who has thrown for 1,033 yards, eight touchdowns and one interception while adding 239 yards and four scores with his legs.
Notre Dame, meanwhile, has been rolling this season. Behind star quarterback CJ Carr and emerging running back Jonaz Walton, the Irish have outscored their opponents, 264-66.
That's why Notre Dame enters this game as a 10.5-point favorite with the over/under set at 46.5.
We polled 13 of our college football experts to get their takes on the spread and total, so let's dive into our BYU vs. Notre Dame picks and college football predictions for Saturday, Oct. 17.
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BYU vs. Notre Dame Spread Pick
Our Staff's Pick: Notre Dame -10.5
Our staff has a little bit of mixed thoughts on this showdown in Provo, but we ultimately lean toward the Irish to win and cover as roughly 10-point road favorites.
It’s never easy to back a road favorite laying 10-plus in what should be an absolutely raucous atmosphere, but defense travels, and this Irish defense is as good as any in America.
BYU will be without star running back LJ Martin due to injury, which only makes the challenge of trying to move the ball on Notre Dame more difficult.
The Irish linebackers will be able to key on quarterback Bear Bachmeier, which will limit his running lanes in both designed runs and off-schedule scrambles.
Meanwhile, ND head coach Marcus Freeman expects to have star cornerback Leonard Moore available, which will make it very tough for Bachmeier to find open receivers when he does throw it downfield.
On the other side of the ball, the Cougar defense is stout and should be able to get some stops early on while playing behind its home crowd.
But CJ Carr is a projected first-round NFL Draft pick for a reason. He has total command of this offense.
Wide receivers Jordan Faison and Jaden Greathouse should both be able to create separation, which will set up some big plays in the passing game, and the emergence of freshman running back Jonaz Walton has really invigorated the Irish rushing attack.
Notre Dame is the deeper and more complete team, and it has a nucleus of guys who have played in big games and hostile environments before.
The Irish will pull away in the second half to win by double digits and move to 7-0, covering the number in the process.
BYU vs. Notre Dame Over/Under Pick
Over 46.5 | 4 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 46.5 | 7 Picks |
Our Staff's Pick: Under 46.5
By Joshua Nunn
Our staff is looking at this one as a lower-scoring game, and I agree with that sentiment.
BYU boasts an above-average defense that has been exceptionally strong at home this season. The defense has allowed just 34 total points in three home games against Utah Tech, Arizona and Iowa State, and the Cougs are racking up more Havoc.
Opponents have found it hard to run the football all season, as BYU is allowing just 80 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry.
Notre Dame will attempt to run the football on the road in a hostile environment, but this game will provide the Irish with more pressure situations than they've faced all season.
I wouldn't be stunned to see a more conservative game plan here and for more conservative decisions to be made in big moments.
On the other side, the Irish have a strong offense.
CJ Carr is blossoming into a great quarterback, but the offensive metrics are padded by games against Purdue, UNC and Stanford — a far cry from what the Irish will be lining up against in this game.
The crux of the play for me is BYU’s offensive potency, or lack thereof.
We saw this situation play out twice last season when BYU played an elite defense. In two games against Texas Tech, the Cougars scored a combined 14 points. In 24 total possessions, only two saw the ball reach the red zone.
BYU simply couldn't move the ball, and this year’s offense is even less equipped to line up against an elite FBS defense like Notre Dame's.
I can't see BYU generating any explosive plays here, and any red-zone trips will require 10- or 12-play drives with time coming off the clock.
This BYU defense can hang in there and play with Notre Dame for a half or three quarters, but the offense can't afford to gamble around midfield and leave the Irish with excellent field position. Every decision will have to be calculated.
I see a limited possession count and conservative play-calling from both sides here. The under looks like a great play, and as a side note, I have personally bet BYU team total under at 17.5 as well. Go low!
BYU vs. Notre Dame Odds
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 46.5 -112o / -108u | +310 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 46.5 -112o / -108u | -395 |
