The Cal Golden Bears take on the San Diego State Aztecs in San Diego, CA. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Cal is favored by -13 points on the spread with a moneyline of -500. The total is set at 46.5 points.
Here’s my Cal vs. San Diego State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20, 2025.
Cal vs San Diego State Prediction
- Cal vs. San Diego State Pick: Cal Team Total Over 30
My San Diego State vs. Cal best bet is on over the Golden Bears' team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Cal vs San Diego State Odds
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
- Cal vs San Diego State point spread: Cal -13
- Cal vs San Diego State over/under: 46.5 points
- Cal vs San Diego State moneyline: California -500, San Diego State +375
Cal vs San Diego State Preview
Cal Golden Bears Betting Preview: JKS Off to Superb Start
Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (JKS) has been one of the early stories of the college football season.
A true freshman, JKS visually jumps off the field and has significant pop in his throws. It hasn't translated into a ton of points yet, but the youngster did lead Cal to an upset win over Minnesota in Week 3.
What appeared to be a bleak season for the Golden Bears is now filled with optimism, thanks to JKS and a defense that's performed admirably through three games.
If you were holding on to an under 5.5 regular-season win total ticket, you might be sweating a touch. Thanks to a schedule that doesn't include Clemson or Miami and catches SMU and Duke at home, Cal projects for 7+ wins.
Terrence Brown's defense ranks just outside the top 25 nationally in points per drive allowed.
It's important to identify that Cal's opponents weren't incredibly strong — and one had something working against it.
- Oregon State ranks 104th among aggregate power ratings
- Texas Southern ranks 116th in the FCS
- Minnesota kicked off at 9:30 p.m. internal time (Central)
But this week doesn't appear to be the game to potentially reset Cal. This may be an early overachiever that notches bowl eligibility by Halloween.
Pass rusher Ryan McCulloch has flown under the shadow of JKS so far, but the junior already has 16 pressures, six QB hits and two sacks. At 6-foot-3 and 245 pounds, McCulloch could rocket up NFL prospect boards and earn All-ACC honors. Liberty transfer TJ Bush Jr. is also making his name known.
Cal may have one of the more underrated pass rushes in the country.
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview: Offensive Line Struggling
The "Flash Fast" offense has yet to take its roots in sunny San Diego. A quick but inefficient pace led to a 119th finish in points per drive last season under Sean Lewis and the 130th FBS success rate so far this year.
The schematic advantage only goes so far when the offensive pieces are at the deficit they are.
Quarterback Jayden Denegal connected on just half of his passes — a few of which were dropped downfield — against Washington State.
Receivers haven't helped with little separation. The ultra-specialized unit consists of deep threats like Jacob Bostick (17.6 average depth of target) and Donovan Brown (17.9 aDOT), but neither player has caught 50% of his targets. Quite simply, there's no dudes out wide.
The other problem is the offensive line. Denegal was pressured 17 times against Wazzu (a below-average pass rush) and over 70% of running back Lucky Sutton's rushing yards through two games came after first contact.
Denegal isn't an overly-mobile quarterback and situational-threat Bert Emanuel Jr.. hasn't gotten anything going without a passing threat there.
It's a highly-specialized offense without the specialists capable of carrying the load.
The saving grace appears to be the defense, though data points are limited with Washington State ranking 129th in EPA and Stony Brook being a mid-level FCS team.
Trey White continues to play at an all-conference level, as does linebacker Owen Chambliss.
This stop unit will need further inspection against its upcoming slate, given the limited data points in the book.
Cal vs San Diego State Pick, Betting Analysis
Cal took early and late movement in this one. The Golden Bears opened at -11.5 and stood steadfast around -12 all week long. On Friday, Cal moved to -13.5.
There's a significant mismatch in this game and that's the Cal passing attack, led by JKS, against San Diego State's 130th-ranked pass defense (success rate).
Eric Butler and Bryce Phillips are both liabilities at corner, whether it be due to penalties or bad coverage. Corner Chris Johnson has played well, but he can't cover the whole field.
Mismatch aside, SDSU runs a fast-tempo offense that's extremely inefficient, as it stands today. An increased pace with increased inefficiency leads to more offensive opportunities for Cal.
Bryan Harsin has shown a willingness to throw the ball plenty with a freshman. I'd expect another game with lots of throws to attack this secondary before ACC play opens up. This should be a good tune-up game for JKS at home against an overmatched secondary.
Perhaps down the line Cal comes crashing back down to earth. It's far from the most talented roster in the ACC, or the best-coached, but against a bottom-tier Mountain West foe, Cal is by far the superior roster.
You could lay the points with the Golden Bears, but with some of the juice squeezed out, I'm looking to back Cal in another way and play over its point total for the game.
Pick: Cal Team Total Over 30
