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Week 7 college football rolls on this afternoon.
From the Third Saturday in October between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Tennessee Volunteers to an in-state FCS clash between the Illinois State Redbirds and Southern Illinois Salukis, we have you covered.
So, read below for college football best bets today and NCAAF picks for Saturday, October 17.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
College Football Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday's slate of afternoon games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Alabama vs. Tennessee Pick
The first handicap focuses on how Alabama's defense can stop a Tennessee run game that features running back DeSean Bishop.
Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel's offense is a heavy inside zone team with the offensive linemen in wide splits. The Vols have elected to use an additional tight end this season, running inside zone 59 times in 12 personnel against 49 attempts in 11.
Alabama boasts a 47% Success Rate against inside zone when opponents use 12 personnel, a 5% drop from the Success Rate against 11 personnel.
The Crimson Tide have allowed ground explosives this season, ranking 65th in Rush EPA allowed. Tennessee must stay in standard downs with Bishop handling the rock, as the Vols own a Success Rate of just 115th in passing downs.
The next handicap centers on Tennessee defensive coordinator Jim Knowles' defense looking to limit explosives from quarterback Keelon Russell and a stable full of explosive weapons for the Tide.
Tennessee's shortcomings on defense come against the run, with mediocre ranks in Stuff Rate and Defensive Line Yards. Alabama runs a heavy amount of inside zone, a run concept the Volunteers produce a low 42% Success Rate against.
However, Action Network's Betting Power Ratings project Alabama as just a 4.5-point favorite, giving an edge to Tennessee with the current number sitting north of a touchdown.
The Crimson Tide should dominate on the ground, but the Volunteers' top-10 Havoc unit and pass defense could create turnovers and gratuitous field position.
Bishop will have success running against the Tide front with inside zone and two tight ends, potentially creating explosives against an Alabama defense that has been susceptible to allowing them this season.
Check out Wilson's full Week 7 betting card below:
Pick: Tennessee +8.5
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North Carolina vs. Duke Pick
By Stuckey
I think we're getting the Blue Devils at a cheap price in a home rivalry matchup vs. the Tar Heels. Part of that has to do with some injury uncertainty surrounding Duke's offense.
Star running back Nate Sheppard and starting center Matt Craycraft are both listed as questionable on the availability report. However, I'm operating under the assumption that both will play.
Sheppard, who ranks fifth nationally in rushing yards while averaging 6.3 yards per carry, is the heartbeat of the Duke offense. He's currently dealing with a foot injury but still managed 190 yards on the ground in a hard-luck loss at Georgia Tech last week.
After the game, he said he dealt with the injury all game and should be good to go. He obviously could miss this game, which would be a massive blow to the Blue Devils, but I took the risk and backed them.
If he does indeed suit up (and I believe he will), he should carve up a UNC defense that can't defend the run (101st in Rushing Success Rate allowed) due to subpar linebacker play.
The Tar Heels have done a tremendous job of limiting explosive pass plays through the air, but that strength won't really help against this iteration of the Duke offense.
Additionally, the UNC defense is currently dealing with an abundance of key injuries up front and in the secondary. It will definitely be without a couple of defensive back starters and likely have to make do without some contributors along the defensive line.
That should open up some opportunities for Walker Eget through the air, while Sheppard (hopefully) carries most of the load.
On the other side of the ball, Duke's defense has also excelled at limiting explosive plays. That means UNC will have to methodically drive the field.
I'm not sure it's fully equipped to do so with a lackluster rushing attack (108th EPA) and a quarterback in Billy Edwards who really struggles under pressure (42% completion percentage compared to 68% when kept clean), which is extremely problematic against a Manny Diaz defense.
Edwards (who has one big-time throw to six turnover-worthy plays) is just much more likely to make critical mistakes than Eget, who has the complete opposite BTT-TWP ratio on the season at 6-1.
This also looks like a prime spot to fade the beat-up Tar Heels following back-to-back physical games against Notre Dame and Pitt.
UNC did pick up a massive top-25 road win last week, but it obviously benefited from facing the Panthers' backup quarterback, yet were still outgained by 100 yards (Pitt went 0-of-4 on fourth down).
Give me the home team with the much better rush offense and defense in a game where we likely won't see many explosive plays. Just keep your fingers crossed on Sheppard and Craycraft.
For what it's worth, head coach Manny Diaz has gone 18-8-1 ATS (69.2%) vs. FBS foes during his three-year tenure at Duke, covering by 3.3 points per game on average.
Check out all of Stuckey's Week 7 Situational Spots below:
Pick: Duke -3 or Better
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Missouri vs. Ole Miss Pick
Saturday's Missouri vs. Ole Miss college football game fits a historically profitable betting system from our Bet Labs database.
Called "High Wind, Low Adjustment," this college football system is built on the idea that extreme wind conditions disrupt offensive rhythm more than the betting market accounts for.
During the regular season, when average wind speed ranges from nine to 100 miles per hour, passing efficiency drops, field goals become riskier, and teams lean more on conservative play-calling.
Yet, if the betting total only shifts a few points from open to close, the market is signaling little adjustment to these conditions.
By focusing on games where the home spread is within 19.5 points in either direction, the system avoids lopsided blowouts and targets contests expected to remain competitive.
When the closing total falls between 47.5 and 69.5, it represents a middle scoring range where weather can have the greatest impact. This combination of high wind and limited market reaction consistently creates value on the under.
This system boasts an all-time record of 868-662-15, good for a win percentage of 56.7% and an ROI of 9.8%.
Pick: Under 58.5
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Illinois State vs. Southern Illinois Pick
By Joshua Nunn
This line opened with Illinois State listed as a 9.5-point favorite with the total set at 53.5. I can see the appeal for the home 'dog here, and the market has moved in that direction. Illinois State is now a 7.5-point favorite, and I like the Redbirds in this game.
The ground attack will find success against a Southern Illinois front that has been giving up a ton of yardage on the ground this year.
Running backs Tyler Lofton and Victor Dawson have been hard to defend when Illinois State brings in running quarterback Chase Kwiatkowski.
I expect the Redbirds to rush for 200 yards and control the line of scrimmage, something they have done for much of the season.
Southern Illinois has struggled offensively when facing elevated competition levels, specifically in early-down situations.
The Salukis aren't running the ball successfully and have been held under three yards per rush in three of their last four games. SIU is converting just 35% on third down this season and is only 7-for-28 the last two weeks.
I like Illinois State’s defense to show up and create Havoc on SIU quarterback DJ Williams, forcing him to scramble and create outside the pocket.
SIU has allowed a tremendous amount of Havoc this season, and the negative plays should show up here against a fresh Illinois State front.
This game could be close at the half, but I expect the Illinois State ground attack to assert itself in the second half and for the Redbirds to pull away in the fourth quarter. I'm laying the 7.5 points with Illinois State.
Pick: Illinois State -7.5
