Wilson: My 9 Favorite College Football Bets For Week 5


USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Khalil Tate, Jafar Armstrong and A.J. Brown.

Sep 29, 2018, 10:36 AM EDT
  • Collin Wilson is back to give out nine of his favorite college football betting picks of Week 5.
  • He's got an eye on the Stanford-Notre Dame matchup, and still isn't sold on LSU's offense.

The CW9 suffered a few bad beats in Week 4, producing a 3-6 record. Although we are still up on the year, the sting of a late Ohio State touchdown against Tulane and the stain of Oregon choking away a live money line of -10,000 are history.

In fairness, maybe the Eugene incident will never leave me as a gambler, but we’ll take some notes (specifically about Stanford’s weaknesses) and move on for more wagers in Week 5.

Most of the bets in the column from here to December will be mathematical and situation-based.

Each pick begins with The Action Network power ratings, followed by an in-depth look at stats such as yards per play, havoc and explosiveness. Injury and weather will become more of a factor in October, as we venture into the totals market with a good data set on pace and plays per game.

Be sure to check out my Sunday Morning Coffee column for our Week 5 projected spreads. Let’s get to the picks!

YTD: 19-17

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All data below as of Thursday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds, track your bets and follow all of our experts’ picks.

Saturday Morning Mimosas

West Virginia at Texas Tech

  • Spread: Texas Tech +3.5
  • Over/Under: 76
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN2

The word on the street is that Texas Tech is playing a bit of defense, but that never showed in a box score against Ole Miss or Houston. It may be hard to display that defense when your quarterback throws for 605 yards as Alan Bowman did against Houston.

The Texas Tech freshman quarterback also put up close to 400 yards in the air against Oklahoma State in Stillwater last week, but the underlying story is that the defense played its best game yet.

Texas Tech has a few key returning players to beef up the defense, including safety Jah’Shawn Johnson. Since the Ole Miss game in Week 1, the Red Raiders defense has allowed just 13 third-down conversions in 48 attempts.

What this game comes down to is what Texas Tech can do against Heisman candidate Will Grier. Tech currently ranks 27th defensively in passing completion percentage.

On the other side, the Texas Tech offense should have its way with the Mountaineers defense.

Don’t be fooled by West Virginia’s defense rank overall of 12th in explosiveness. It has played Tennessee, Youngstown State and Kansas State.

I took a flier preseason on Texas Tech to make the Big 12 title game at +1250, so get your tortillas ready as the march to Arlington is on after the Red Raiders defeat Grier and the Mountaineers.

Play On: Texas Tech +3.5

Arkansas at Texas A&M

  • Spread: Texas A&M -21
  • Over/Under: 61
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN

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