Stuckey, Locky, Wilson: College Football Moneyline Underdogs to Bet in Week 7
Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Mexico State Aggies linebacker Terrill Hanks
- Don't forget about the betting underdogs on the moneyline when finalizing your Week 7 college football bets.
- Three of our college football experts give their best moneyline underdog bets for Week 7.
Each week, we will each give out our favorite moneyline underdog on the college football card. Week 7 is no different. You can play them straight, throw them in a longshot parlay or just read for additional insight.
After just missing with San Jose State in Week 5, we bounced back nicely with two 3-1 underdog winners (UAB and Iowa State) in Week 6. Let’s try to keep the momentum rolling this Saturday.
If you feel like really rolling the dice, a moneyline parlay of all three pays 29-1.
YTD: 7-11 +4.65 units
Stuckey: Memphis +175
- Spread: Central Florida -4.5
- Over/Under: 81
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV channel: ABC/ESPN2
Talk about motivation. This is Memphis’ Super Bowl. Not only have the Tigers suffered two disappointing losses already this season (Navy, Tulane), which have put a real damper on their AAC title aspirations, but they have major motivation for revenge in this game.
Last year, Memphis lost twice to Central Florida — once at home in embarrassing fashion, 40-13, and the other later in the year in the AAC Championship at UCF in double overtime by a score of 62-55. The Tigers have had this game circled since that title-game loss. Expect their absolute best effort here.
And while UCF should have no issues putting up points against a very suspect Memphis defense, the Tigers should move the ball on the ground all day. The Tigers not only lead the nation in rush yards per attempt (7.7), but also in S&P+ Rush Explosiveness. (They also rank No. 4 in Rush Efficiency on offense, whereas UCF ranks outside the top 50.)
I think Memphis can pull off another top-25 upset at the Liberty Bowl, which it has done in each of the past three seasons:
- 2015 vs. Ole Miss
- 2016 vs. Houston
- 2017 vs. UCLA
And can we please slow our roll with the UCF love? Its one road win this year came at UConn, which could very well be the worst team in the country.
Ken Barkley: New Mexico State +250
- Spread: Louisiana -7.5
- Over/Under: 68.5
- Time: 5 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN+
Since I took an oath not to give out Rutgers two weeks in a row for fear of punishment by Chad Millman and the powers that be, I have turned my attention elsewhere.
New Mexico State was the most toxic team for bettors during the first month of the season. After the Aggies replaced their leading passer, rusher and receiver from a year ago, they couldn’t be rated low enough. No matter how big the number got, they couldn’t cover it.
With extremely poor quarterback play, head coach Doug Martin finally turned to Josh Adkins, who struggled initially as you’d expect from a freshman. However, after a bye week to start October (which allowed for more practice time), the New Mexico State offense looked the best it’s looked all season in a win over Liberty last week. Adkins threw four touchdown passes and no picks in that game.
Now, you might be thinking “sure, but that’s Liberty.” Well, I’ve got good news for you my friends: while Liberty’s defense ranked 117th in S&P+ going into last week, ULL’s is actually even worse, at 125th! So, there’s reason to believe the offense could click again.
Neither defense is worth much, but the Aggies were missing their best pass rusher the first two games of the year and have at least shown tiny improvements since getting him back. With this game having an over/under of 68.5, oddsmakers expect a shootout, so rather than take the points (less valuable in such a high-scoring game), I’ll play the Aggies to win outright in their continued attempt to salvage their season.
Collin Wilson: Virginia +215
- Spread: Miami -6.5
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV channel: ESPN2
If you read my weekly column detailing my nine favorite bets of the week, you know I have a lot of love for the Wahoos. Not only is this an ideal situational spot for Virginia, which comes off a bye, but there’s a lot to like in the underlying metrics, as well.
Virginia can not only compete with Miami in terms of Havoc, its defense excels at limiting explosive plays — a must vs. the Hurricanes. The Cavaliers should also be able to generate pressure against a suspect Miami offensive line.
On the other side of the ball, quarterback Bryce Perkins has the mobility to deal with the inevitable Miami defensive pressure. Virginia can pull off this upset.