College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Georgia State vs. UL-Monroe: Continue to Fade Warhawks

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Georgia State vs. UL-Monroe: Continue to Fade Warhawks article feature image
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  • Georgia State, which has lost two straight games, will look to bounce back against UL Monroe.
  • The Warhawks got blown out last week by Coastal Carolina and are currently 2-2 on the season.
  • Kyle Remillard breaks down the game and offers his best bet.

Georgia State vs. UL-Monroe Odds

Georgia State Odds -16 (-105)
UL-Monroe Odds +16 (-115)
Moneyline -720 / +500
Over/Under 49.5 (-115 / -105)
Time 8 p.m. ET
TV ESPN3
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Georgia State looks for its first Sun Belt Conference win as it travels to matchup with the ULM Warhawks.

The Georgia State Panthers are 1-4 on the season, but have endured a tough five-game stretch to open the season. They’ve matched up against two Power Five programs in North Carolina and Auburn, in addition to Appalachian State, Army and Charlotte.

Those five programs hold a combined record of 18-7.

Georgia State has been struggling to find consistency at the quarterback position but should thrive against a ULM defense that has allowed over 300 yards per game through the air.

UL Monroe pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season defeating Troy as 24.5-point underdogs. The program snuck past Jackson State 12-7 but were outscored by 88 points against Kentucky and Coastal Carolina.

ULM ranks 126th on Collin Wilson’s Power Ratings. But after losing starting quarterback Rhett Rodriguez two weeks ago, this offense stands little chance of moving the chains consistently.

Is a 16-point cushion enough to back the Warhawks in this spot?


Georgia State vs. UL-Monroe Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 9
8 p.m. ET
ESPN3

Georgia State Panthers

Georgia State Offense

Georgia State’s offense has averaged 17 points per game and has taken a huge step back from the unit that averaged 33 points in 2020.

The Panthers’ rushing game has been solid behind a strong running back committee. The group has averaged 4.4 yards per carry and nearly 200 yards per game.

They will look to replicate their effort last season when they rushed for 260 yards and four touchdowns against ULM.

The main factor behind the lack of success for this offense has been the inconsistent quarterback play.

Cornelious Brown IV was benched through two games after throwing four interceptions with no touchdown passes.

Darren Grainger took over the starting roll and wasn’t much better, completing just 52% of his passes to go along with three interceptions.

We will likely see both quarterbacks in this game as they continue to duel for the starting position. Both should bounce back and have no problem leading scoring drives against the horrid Warhawks defense.


Georgia State Defense

The Georgia State defense hasn’t been great this season, allowing 38 points per game. But the Panthers have matched up against some of the tougher offenses in the country. They’ve faced the Army triple option, North Carolina’s Air Raid attack and a dominant Appalachian State run game.

The Panthers defense was fantastic against an Auburn offensive line that averages 340 pounds up front, holding it to 4.7 yards per carry.

The defense is led by linebacker Jordan Veneziale, who is the team’s leading tackler. He’s averaged 8.8 tackles per game while providing two sacks, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and 3.5 tackles for loss.

Georgia State’s front seven will be able to stop the run and force ULM’s backup quarterback to beat it.

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Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

UL Monroe Offense

The ULM offense appropriately ranks dead last in the nation, according to SP+. The Warhawks are averaging 207 total yards of total offense per game and 3.3 yards per play.

Louisiana-Monroe has run the ball on 61% of its plays this season and amounted just 2.0 yards per rush. Through four games, the offense has accounted for three total touchdowns.

To make matters worse, the Warhawks lost their starting quarterback Rodriguez (son of offensive coordinator Rich Rodriguez), who was put in intensive care after a lung injury against Troy.

In the team’s first game without Rodriguez, it lost by 53 to Coastal Carolina and mustered only 5.5 yards per pass attempt (most of it coming in garbage time).

ULM has converted 17 of its 65 third-down attempts, good for a Success Rate of 26%.

It ranks 120th or worse in nearly every offensive metric, and that was with its starting quarterback.


UL Monroe Defense

The ULM defense isn’t much better, according to its SP+ ranking (122nd in the nation).

Against Coastal Carolina, the Warhawks allowed over 550 yards of total offense. Coastal averaged 11.8 yards per pass attempt and 6.5 yards per rushing attempt.

They suffered a similar fate against Kentucky, as the Wildcats amassed over 400 yards through the air while averaging 12.7 YPPA. ULM won the turnover battle 3-0 in that game, yet still lost by 35 points.

The defensive unit ranks outside the top 100 in both Passing and Rushing Success Rate. It’s allowed explosive plays all season, and that trend should continue in this game.


Georgia State vs. UL-Monroe Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia State and UL-Monroe match up statistically:

Georgia State Offense vs. UL-Monroe Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 68 120
Line Yards 95 1
Pass Success 109 108
Pass Blocking** 121 80
Big Play 97 113
Havoc 122 71
Finishing Drives 109 33
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

UL-Monroe Offense vs. Georgia State Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 127 57
Line Yards 129 56
Pass Success 120 25
Pass Blocking** 128 72
Big Play 128 66
Havoc 127 108
Finishing Drives 130 74
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 62 96
PFF Coverage 125 83
Middle 8 86 97
SP+ Special Teams 73 99
Plays per Minute 21 82
Rush Rate 63.1% (22) 61.4% (27)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Georgia State vs. UL-Monroe Betting Pick

Without Rodriguez under center, the Warhawks are the worst team in college football.

With him in the lineup, ULM amounted 87 total yards of offense against Kentucky. Without him, it has no chance of moving the ball consistently.

ULM has accumulated 830 total yards of offense this year. It’s allowed 1,774.

Georgia State is much better than its 1-4 record depicts. The Panthers were one play away from upsetting Auburn on the road two weeks ago.

Brown is also better than what he has shown this season. He threw for 2,300 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2020 and will use this opportunity to bounce back in a big way.

I’m going to continue to fade ULM until it can show any sign of life offensively. I’m backing Georgia State to roll past ULM wire-to-wire.

Pick: Georgia State -16 (Play to -17)

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