Hawaii vs Utah State Odds, Picks: Saturday College Football Betting Preview
Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
- The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors travel to Logan, Utah, to take on the Utah State Aggies.
- The Aggies enter as favorites on the mainland, but Doug Ziefel sees betting value on the road underdog.
- Check out Ziefel's betting preview for Saturday's Mountain West game below.
Hawaii vs. Utah State Odds
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 65 -115o / -105u | +170 |
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 65 -115o / -105u | -200 |
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors will venture off of the island as they take on the Utah State Aggies on Saturday afternoon.
This will be the first meeting in three years between these two programs, with Utah State leading the all-time series, 7-4. A great deal of change has come over the last three years, and each of these teams is poised to make a statement in the Mountain West.
Hawaii is coming off of an emotional victory as the team honored team legend Colt Brennan. The Rainbow Warriors certainly played inspired as they dispatched New Mexico State en route to their fourth victory of the season.
The Aggies come into this one on a roll as they have won two straight games. They have been a bit of a surprise team in the Mountain West Conference as their play has put them towards the top of a very competitive league.
Will they make Hawaii another notch on their belt? Or can the Rainbow Warriors continue to play inspired?
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Key Injuries Loom Large For Offense
Hawaii has been without starting quarterback Chevan Cordeiro for multiple games and was dealt another big blow as star running back Dae Dae Hunter missed last week's game with an undisclosed injury.
It is unquestionable how important these two are to the offense.
In Hunter's last game, he ran for 174 yards on just eight carries including this long touchdown run:
Dae Dae Hunter cannot be stopped! His first run of the night went 85 yards to the house. This one goes for 81 yards and the same result.@HawaiiFootballpic.twitter.com/tUHaiHLnue
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) October 17, 2021
There are still questions surrounding the statuses of both Hunter and Cordiero. Cordiero is considered questionable and we have yet to receive an update on Hunter. In the event that either remains out, their backups have proven they can perform well.
Freshman quarterback Brayden Schager has led the Rainbow Warriors to two victories in his three appearances this season. One came over the now 18th-ranked Fresno State Bulldogs. Schager showed profession against New Mexico State, as he completed 86% of his passes for 219 yards.
Dedrick Parson shined in his increased role in the absence of Hunter last week. He rushed for 161 yards and scored three times.
If Parson and Schager can carry their momentum into this matchup, Hawaii will be in good hands.
Big Plays Ailing Warriors Defense
The Hawaii defense does not exactly stand out from the pack as it trends toward the bottom in points and yards allowed per game.
They may be able to match up with the Aggies' passing attack if they can avoid getting burned. The Rainbow Warriors' defense is 14th in opponent completion percentage and 22nd in yards per pass allowed but is also 113th in passing yards allowed per game.
The discrepancy is caused by the number of big plays the defense has allowed. Hawaii is 96th in big plays allowed and will need to minimize them in order to stay in this game.
Utah State Aggies
Aggies' Dual-Threat Offense
Junior quarterback Logan Bonner has led an explosive Utah State offense that can break off big gains through the air and on the ground. Bonner himself has had his fair share of big plays as he has completed a pass of 30 or more yards in six of seven games this season.
He could be labeled as a gunslinger as his mentality to push the ball down the field has created big plays but also multiple turnovers. Fortunately for Utah State, there has been more good than bad as he's 18th in the country in passing yards per game.
On the ground, Calvin Tyler Jr. is the workhorse of the backfield. Tyler has rushed for 477 yards at five yards per carry but showed his game-breaking ability in two huge performances against Boise State and Air Force.
In those back-to-back games, he ran for 258 yards at 6.6 yards per carry and even broke this game-winning touchdown run:
CALVIN TYLER JR!
✌️ @BlessedAthleteC#AggiesAllTheWaypic.twitter.com/WBMoYdIVSO
— USU Football (@USUFootball) September 19, 2021
The balanced attack of Bonner and Tyler Jr. could be a formidable task for the Hawaii defense, so long as Bonner can avoid interceptions.
Aggies Getting Burned On the Ground
It is no secret as to where this Utah State defense can be beaten. The Aggies rank 102nd in Rushing Success Allowed and that is linked to being 119th in opponent yards per rush.
The prospect of Hunter returning for Hawaii in this game could be a scary sight for the Utah State faithful.
Whether they face Hunter or Pearson, the Aggies will need to make a concerted effort to stop the run as the Rainbow Warriors will take what is given to them.
Hawaii vs. Utah State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Hawaii and Utah State match up statistically:
Hawaii Offense vs. Utah State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 42 | 102 | |
| Line Yards | 48 | 72 | |
| Pass Success | 105 | 94 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 15 | 101 | |
| Big Play | 28 | 77 | |
| Havoc | 122 | 58 | |
| Finishing Drives | 113 | 59 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Utah State Offense vs. Hawaii Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 86 | 99 | |
| Line Yards | 105 | 75 | |
| Pass Success | 11 | 84 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 55 | 44 | |
| Big Play | 42 | 96 | |
| Havoc | 92 | 70 | |
| Finishing Drives | 104 | 21 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 83 | 45 |
| Coverage | 104 | 106 |
| Middle 8 | 114 | 42 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 31 | 43 |
| Plays per Minute | 21 | 5 |
| Rush Rate | 49.2% (104) | 52.5% (81) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Hawaii vs. Utah State Betting Pick
The impact of Hunter and Cordiero playing cannot be understated when handicapping this game.
Our PRO Projections make Hawaii a one-point underdog, which represents tremendous value for the current number. But that projection is based on Hunter and Cordiero playing.
The backups for the Rainbow Warriors have shown they are capable, though we can only bet them to a certain extent.
The right side is Hawaii here, but without its top two stars, take the best number possible.
Pick: Hawaii +5.5 (Play to 4)
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