LSU vs. Texas A&M Odds

The LSU Tigers travel to College Station on Saturday to take on the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. This is LSU’s first visit to College Station since the epic 74-72 A&M win in seven overtimes in 2018.

After a few weeks off, LSU picked up its biggest win of the season at Arkansas, 27-24, last Saturday. Freshman quarterback TJ Finley took a step forward after a disappointing showing at Auburn, as he passed for a career-high 271 yards and two touchdown passes.

While Finley and the LSU offense have seemingly taken a step forward, the Tigers will have their hands full trying to keep pace with the Aggies' offense and their elite rushing attack.

Although LSU is improving on both sides of the ball, this is a nightmare matchup for the Tigers' defense, and the Aggie team total looks intriguing once again.

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LSU Tigers

If the Tigers hope to be competitive in College Station, the defense needs to take a huge step forward. LSU has frustrated its fan base by giving up explosive plays every week and struggling to stop the run.

LSU ranks 126th in the country in stopping big plays, and this problem has only gotten worse as games go on. Miscommunications and mental errors in the back end have plagued LSU all season, as it has given away easy yardage to opponents. The Tigers are dead last among SEC teams in opponent's second-half yards per play (8.1) and last among Power Five teams in opponent yards per second-half pass attempt (12.2).

LSU’s run defense needs to take a step forward as well. The Tigers rank 110th in Opportunity Rate and 92nd in Rushing Success Rate, meaning that opposing offenses have consistently gained decent yardage against them to stay on schedule and keep their playbooks wide open. This needs to change against an elite A&M rushing offense for the Tigers to have a chance.

LSU’s pass rush is a bright spot on defense. Senior defensive end Andre Anthony was named SEC co-defensive lineman of the week after tallying four tackles and two sacks at Arkansas. LSU ranks 21st in the nation in Pressure Rate and 34th in Sack Rate. Anthony leads a group of pass rushers that will have their hands full with an Aggie offense that gets rid of the ball quickly.

Texas A&M Aggies

After a huge 41-38 win against Florida, the Aggies quietly won three more games in a row comfortably against Mississippi State, Arkansas and South Carolina before missing games against Tennessee and Ole Miss because of COVID-19. A&M is the best team no one is talking about, and it has a great chance to make a statement on a national stage against the defending national champs in a rivalry game Saturday night.

After underwhelming in his first few years in College Station, Kellen Mond has taken a step forward in 2020 after a sluggish opener against Vanderbilt. Mond ranks in the top 30 nationally with 16 touchdown passes, just two interceptions and a QBR of 76.5.

He was heating up before the COVID-19-induced break, as he combined for eight total touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two games. Mond’s offensive line has played a huge role in his success, as it ranks third nationally in Offensive Sack Rate (Mond has been sacked only twice). Furthermore, play-calling has helped minimize the number of sacks by getting the ball out of Mond’s hands quickly.

While Mond has improved, the Aggie offense is powered by star running back Isaiah Spiller and a dominant offensive line. Spiller ranks second in the SEC with 6.2 yards per rush and fourth in the SEC with 643 rushing yards.

Other Aggies have had success rushing, too, as A&M ranks first in the SEC in yards per rush and second in rush yards per game. The Aggies also sit at  25th nationally in Rushing Success Rate.

Betting Analysis & Pick

While LSU’s defense took a step forward last week against Arkansas, it faces a nightmare matchup against Texas A&M’s elite rushing offense. The Aggies should have a big day running the football and will take advantage of the Tigers' miscues to put up tons of points at home.

I like the Aggies to cover the 14.5 points and will bet them up to -16.5. I don’t normally like laying this many points, but A&M is one of the handful of elite teams in football, and LSU’s biggest weaknesses align with Texas A&M’s biggest strengths. The LSU defense’s strength of rushing the passer will also be neutralized by the strong Aggie offensive line and a quick passing attack.

Consequently, I also love the value of the Aggies team total over 37.5 as my best bet. I don’t see LSU stopping the Aggie offense, and I would bet this up to 38 at a value of -130 or better.

Pick: Texas A&M Team Total Over 37.5 (up to 38 at -130) | Texas A&M -14.5 (up to -17)

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