NC State vs. Florida State Odds & Picks: Our Top Bet for ACC College Football Clash

NC State vs. Florida State Odds & Picks: Our Top Bet for ACC College Football Clash article feature image
Credit:

David John Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Devin Leary.

Editor’s Note: Florida State’s McKenzie Milton is expected to start at quarterback in place of Jordan Travis, who contracted the flu, according to 247Sports.

NC State vs. Florida State Odds

Saturday, Nov. 6
4 p.m. ET
ACC Network
NC State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-2.5
-110
55.5
-105o / -115u
-135
Florida State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+2.5
-110
55.5
-105o / -115u
+115
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

NC State found its way back into the win column last week with a 28-13 victory over Louisville. If you were following along, the Wolfpack also secured a cover (-6.5) with the win.

They now sit 1.5 games back of Wake Forest in the ACC Atlantic Division. This is a potential look-ahead spot for NC State as it will travel to Winston Salem to take on the Demon Deacons next week.

Florida State enters with a bit of momentum as winners of three of its last four.

However, it suffered one of the worst bad beats of the season last week. Down four on the last play of the game, the Seminoles tried a hook and ladder play to win the game. Unfortunately for FSU backers, a few laterals eventually led to a fumble recovered for a touchdown by Clemson.

The Seminoles will look to get back on track this week against the Wolfpack.

Florida State has dominated this matchup historically, leading the all-time series, 26-13. However, the Wolfpack have won three of the last four meetings. NC State’s recent success may continue this week.


NC State Wolfpack

The Wolfpack have a potent passing attack that ranks 22nd in Passing Success Rate.

The Wolfpack are led by quarterback Devin Leary, who is quietly one of the best quarterbacks in the country. This season,  Leary is completing 66.1% of his passes for 2,161 yards and 21 touchdowns with only two interceptions.

That has put him in some elite company since 2014.

QBs with 2100 pass yards, 21 pass TDs and no more than 2 INTs through 8 games, playoff era:
2014 Marcus Mariota
2017 JT Barrett
2019 Justin Herbert
2019 Tua Tagovailoa
2020 Zach Wilson
2021 Devin Leary

— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) November 1, 2021

Leary has a strong offensive line in front of him, with the Wolfpack ranking fifth in Havoc allowed and 14th in pass-blocking grade.

Emeka Emezie leads the team in receiving with 42 receptions for 543 yards and two touchdowns.

Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person Jr. are a potent duo in the backfield. Knight averages 5.4 yards per carry with four touchdowns, while Person averages 4.9 yards per carry with three touchdowns.

The Wolfpack gave up 434 yards of total offense to Louisville, but it came up with timely stops. Louisville went 6-for-15 on third-down conversions, and the Wolfpack gave up only 13 points.

NC State ranks 29th in Finishing Drives defensively, but Florida State will have an edge there with a rank of 11th.

Generally, NC State has been a strong unit in stopping the run this season, ranking third in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. However, Louisville found a way to run for 215 yards last week.

Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis will pose a threat similar to Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham with his legs.

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Florida State Seminoles

Florida State wants to pound the rock, running on 60% of its offensive snaps, and it is successful when it does. The Seminoles rank 30th in Rushing Success Rate and 21st in rushing offense at 209.4 yards per game.

Running Jashaun Corbin is the lead back and has four 100-yard games this season. On the year, he’s third in the FBS in yards per carry (7.5) and has 714 yards and six touchdowns.

Travis has chipped in 340 rushing yards on the ground himself. He has also taken some strides as a passer, completing 63% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions.

However, Florida State ranks 108th in passing yards per game and 71st in Success Rate. The passing game will favor NC State’s defense.

Florida State’s defense is giving up 10 fewer points per game than it did last season. An improved pass rush is a contributing factor. Florida State has 22 sack this season and sits 26th in the FBS in sacks per game (2.75).

A couple of impact transfers lead the way for the Seminoles in Jermaine Johnson and Jammie Robinson.

Johnson leads the ACC with 7.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss, while Robinson leads the team with 54 tackles and has also added two forced fumbles and an interception.

The turnover battle will be worth monitoring. Florida State has forced six turnovers in its last two games, while NC State has not committed a turnover in the past four games and ranks sixth nationally with just six turnovers this season.


NC State vs. Florida State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how NC State and Florida State match up statistically:

NC State Offense vs. Florida State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 77 31
Line Yards 42 75
Pass Success 22 37
Pass Blocking** 14 48
Big Play 82 66
Havoc 5 40
Finishing Drives 42 27
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Florida State Offense vs. NC State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 30 3
Line Yards 20 24
Pass Success 71 17
Pass Blocking** 46 49
Big Play 27 54
Havoc 111 51
Finishing Drives 11 29
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 12 5
Coverage 29 58
Middle 8 33 35
SP+ Special Teams 37 23
Plays per Minute 87 66
Rush Rate 46.5% (117) 60.2% (28)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


NC State vs. Florida State Betting Pick

NC State came to Florida two weeks ago as a three-point favorite at Miami and lost outright, 31-30.

Florida State will be extremely motivated to win, as a sixth loss would put its bowl eligibility in peril. However, I like NC State this week for a few reasons. 

The Wolfpack will have an advantage in Havoc on both sides of the ball, particularly on offense, where Florida State is 111th in Havoc allowed.

Florida State has made improvements on defense, but NC State still has the better defense in this game. The Pack are sixth in the country in scoring defense, and I trust that they will get more stops when they need to than Florida State.

The Seminoles will also be facing the better quarterback in this game. Leary is playing at an elite level and has not thrown an interception since Week 2. I trust that Leary will make more plays with the game on the line than Travis.

I expect this game to be a battle, but under a field goal, I’m backing the Wolfpack to pull one out on the road.

Pick: NC State -2.5 (Play to -3.5)

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