NC State vs. Miami Betting Odds, Picks: Expect Wolfpack to Take Care of Business (Saturday, October 23)

NC State vs. Miami Betting Odds, Picks: Expect Wolfpack to Take Care of Business (Saturday, October 23) article feature image
Credit:

Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Zonovan Knight.

  • NC State and Miami take the field in Friday night ACC action.
  • The Wolfpack have impressed this season, while the Hurricanes have seen some tough times.
  • Doug Ziefel breaks down the matchup and delivers his top pick for bettors below.

NC State vs. Miami Odds

Saturday, Oct. 23
7:30 p.m. ET
ESPN2
NC State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-3.5
-105
54.5
-110o / -110u
-165
Miami Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+3.5
-115
54.5
-110o / -110u
+145
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The NC State Wolfpack are on the hunt for an ACC title this season, and the next team in their path is the Miami Hurricanes.

NC State is rolling into this matchup as it has won four straight, including a statement victory over Clemson and its most recent trouncing of a solid Boston College team.

As for the Hurricanes, their season started off rough and seems to be only getting more difficult as key injuries are beginning to pile up.

This could be the matchup that the Hurricanes need, though. Miami has won 10 of the 16 meetings between the two programs.

Can Manny Diaz rally his team for one more big performance?


NC State Wolfpack

Beck’s Methodical Approach Generates Points

The NC State offense is designed to take what the defense is giving them on every play.

Quarterback Devin Leary only averages 7.4 yards per pass but has a completion percentage of 67 percent. Leary’s intermediate passing game has also limited turnovers as he’s only thrown two interceptions.

On the ground, the running back tandem of Zonovan Knight and Ricky Pearson Jr. have combined to rush for 887 yards at 5.6 yards per rush. Each of them has proven to be shifty and explosive.

They have certainly been hard to tackle this season as shown by this list:

Missed Tackles Forced Leaders, ACC:

1. Sean Tucker, Cuse – 49
T2. Zonovan Knight, NC State – 35
T2. Ty Chandler, UNC – 35
4. Ricky Person, NC State – 34
5. Mateo Durant, Duke – 30 pic.twitter.com/rh6x76QqjB

— Dan Siegel (ACC Content) (@ACContent__) October 20, 2021

This could potentially be a great spot where we see the NC State offense thrive. The Hurricanes’ defense has allowed 36 points per game.

Behind that is two glaring statistics. Miami is 118th in opponent third-down conversion percentage and 126th in opponent red zone scoring percentage as it has not gotten a single red-zone stop yet this season.


Wolfpack Defense Feasts on Opponents

While its offense has been steady, the backbone of NC State has been this defense.

The Wolfpack are ranked in the top 20 of nearly every team defensive stat. Most notably they are 10th in points per game allowed at 15.8, second in third-down conversion percentage and 20th in yards per play at 4.7.

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Miami Hurricanes

Next Man Up in Miami

The Hurricanes were struggling when the team was healthy, but now both their starting quarterback and running back are out for the remainder of the season.

They have now been forced to turn to two freshmen to fill the voids and each of them has had varied success since coming into the roles.

In his last two starts, which have come against ACC opponents, Tyler Van Dyke has been very inaccurate and has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. He has also been sacked seven times during those games.

He is in for his toughest challenge to date as the Wolfpack ranks ninth in coverage and sixth in tackling. Open receivers and yards after the catch will be rare sights in this matchup.

On the other hand, Jaylan Knighton stepped up as the feature back against the Tar Heels last week. He ran for 92 yards and scored twice on the ground and once through the air.

Though just like his backfield mate Van Dyke, Knighton is in a step up in challenge. NC State is seventh in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and has only given up just 3.5 yards per carry to opposing running backs.


Hurricanes Defense in a Downward Spiral

As I touched on earlier, the Miami defense has not shown up in crucial areas of the field or in crucial situations.

When you look deeper, the metrics are not any prettier. The Hurricanes are 128th in tackling and 107th in coverage.

The defense’s performance this season is setting them back. This year it looks like the turnover chain fell off the bus and hasn’t been found.


NC State vs. Miami Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how NC State and Miami match up statistically:

NC State Offense vs. Miami Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 64 100
Line Yards 20 62
Pass Success 34 75
Pass Blocking** 16 89
Big Play 108 43
Havoc 4 72
Finishing Drives 56 128
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Miami Offense vs. NC State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 92 7
Line Yards 116 35
Pass Success 88 17
Pass Blocking** 31 62
Big Play 59 61
Havoc 94 44
Finishing Drives 101 24
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 6 128
Coverage 9 107
Middle 8 23 54
SP+ Special Teams 68 45
Plays per Minute 83 6
Rush Rate 49.2% (106) 49.3% (104)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


NC State vs. Miami Betting Pick

This is a case of two teams trending in opposite directions. The Wolfpack are motivated and hungry to continue their success, whereas this season is all but lost for the Hurricanes.

Take NC State to cover the spread and shut down the Hurricanes in the process.

Pick: NC State -3.5

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