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Nevada vs. Fresno State Odds, Picks: Target This Mountain West Total (Saturday, October 23)

Nevada vs. Fresno State Odds, Picks: Target This Mountain West Total (Saturday, October 23) article feature image

Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images

  • Nevada and Fresno State go to battle in Mountain West action on Saturday night.
  • The Bulldogs enter as small favorites in this matchup that features two high-quality Group of Five quarterbacks in Jake Haener and Carson Strong.
  • Check out Kyle Remillard's betting preview with updated odds and picks below.

Nevada vs. Fresno State Odds

Saturday, Oct. 23
7 p.m. ET
Nevada Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-105o / -115u
Fresno State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-105o / -115u
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Two of the most prolific passers in the country meet in a Mountain West showdown between Nevada and Fresno State.

Both offenses average 36 points and over 450 total yards of offense per game, with each ranking among the top 10 in Pass Success Rate.

Fresno State is 5-2 and has leaned on the arm of senior quarterback Jake Haener for much of its success. The Bulldogs upset UCLA, 40-37, and fell just short of defeating Oregon earlier in the season.

Nevada is in a similar situation at 5-1 because of the dominance of quarterback Carson Strong. The Wolf Pack have found impressive wins over California and Boise State.

This matchup has all the ingredients for a shootout between two of the top offenses in the Mountain West, but will it live up to the hype?

Nevada Wolf Pack

Nevada Offense

Many have touted Strong as potentially one of the first quarterbacks taken in the 2022 NFL Draft. The six-foot-four junior has the build of a professional quarterback and a cannon for an arm to match his dominant passing numbers.

Strong has completed 68% of his passes while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. He’s thrown 16 touchdowns to three interceptions while averaging over 330 passing yards per contest.

The Nevada offense ranks eighth in Pass Success Rate and throws the ball on 63% of its offensive plays, which ranks among the five most pass-heavy offenses in the country.

The offense ranks inside the top 30 in both explosive plays and creating Havoc. This air raid attack will test the Fresno State defense that has been reliable.

Nevada Defense

The Nevada defense hasn’t been great as they have allowed 24 points and nearly 380 yards of total offense per game.

They rank 125th in Rush Success Rate allowed as they have given up 3.8 yards per carry. Kansas State exposed this unit on the ground when it rushed for 270 yards and four touchdowns. The Wolf Pack have shown a massive weakness in tackling, as they rank 100th in the country, per PFF.

Recently, the Wolf Pack have been vulnerable against the pass too, as Boise State and New Mexico State combined to pass for 800 yards and seven touchdowns in two of the Wolfpack’s three most recent games.

This unit could be in store for a long night as they face their most explosive offense yet.

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Fresno State Bulldogs

Fresno State Offense 

The Bulldogs rank fifth in Pass Success Rate this season thanks to Haener. The senior has thrown 20 touchdowns and completed 68% of his passes while averaging 8.8 yards per attempt. He has averaged over 330 passing yards per game and found nine separate receivers for a touchdown this season.

Jalen Cropper has been Haener’s go-to receiver and he has scored a touchdown in every game this season.

Overall, he’s hauled in 10 touchdowns while averaging seven receptions per game.

Fresno State ranks 111th in Rush Success Rate while averaging fewer than four yards per carry. It ranks 119th in Rush Rate this season as the offense throws the ball on over 55% of its plays.

This offense isn’t concerned about running the ball as they prefer to lean on their dominant passing attack.

Fresno State Defense

The Fresno defense has been the unsung hero for this program. They have allowed fewer than 20 points per game and accounted for two shutouts this season, including last time out against Wyoming.

They rank among the top 50 in both Rush and Pass Success Rates as they have been able to control the line of scrimmage and pressure opposing quarterbacks. The unit has amounted 19 sacks and a whopping 59 tackles for loss.

Fresno ranks third in the country in Havoc created on defense. The Bulldogs will need to lean on this group in hopes of slowing down Strong and the Nevada Air Raid offense.

Nevada vs. Fresno State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Nevada and Fresno State match up statistically:

Nevada Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
Rush Success 96 36
Line Yards 70 27
Pass Success 8 5
Pass Blocking** 109 44
Big Play 27 20
Havoc 22 3
Finishing Drives 76 46
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Fresno State Offense vs. Nevada Defense
Rush Success 111 125
Line Yards 123 105
Pass Success 5 79
Pass Blocking** 69 29
Big Play 42 54
Havoc 55 49
Finishing Drives 73 69
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 100 54
Coverage 25 22
Middle 8 3 29
SP+ Special Teams 82 77
Plays per Minute 34 54
Rush Rate 37.5% (127) 45.5% (119)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.

Nevada vs. Fresno State Betting Pick

This matchup includes a duel between two of the top quarterbacks, not only in the Mountain West but in the country. The two own a combined 36 touchdown passes while both completing 68% of their attempts.

They each have been lighting up defenses all season and they will battle back-and-forth in what could be a game decided by who has the ball last.

Each team ranks among the bottom in the country in Rush Rate. Fresno State averages 41 pass attempts while Nevada sits at 44 per game. They both want their offense to play at a fast pace and rank 34th and 54th in plays per minute, respectively.

There will be an abundance of touchdown passes in this matchup and the value lies on the over.

Pick: Over 64 (Play to 67)

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