Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Odds, Picks: Your Betting Guide for Saturday’s Rivalry Game

Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Odds, Picks: Your Betting Guide for Saturday’s Rivalry Game article feature image
Credit:

Brian Bahr/Getty Images. Pictured: Oklahoma State Cowboys safety Kanion Williams (12).

Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Odds

Saturday, Nov. 27
7:30 p.m. ET
ABC
Oklahoma Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+4
-110
49.5
-110o / -110u
+160
Oklahoma State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-4
-110
49.5
-110o / -110u
-190
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

After 115 previous meetings, the Bedlam Series might finally come to an end, as Oklahoma and Texas prepare to move to the SEC.

The football rivalry started in 1904 when a punt was taken over by the wind so harshly that an Oklahoma recovery in a half-frozen creek was called a touchdown in a 75-0 victory.

There have been plenty of meaningful games in this series, from Gundy quarterbacks to a claim of mobsters spiking the team soup in 1954.

Mike Gundy said he doesn’t believe OSU-OU game continues after OU goes to SEC. “I don’t think it’s a realistic thing that’s going to happen based on the business side of Power 5 conference football. That’s just my opinion. I could be wrong. I’m not getting that from anybody"

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) November 22, 2021

The stakes could not be any higher on Saturday, as a spot in the Big 12 Championship game and a high ranking for the College Football Playoff await the winner of this game.

An Oklahoma State win could potentially place Baylor in Arlington alongside the Pokes. An Oklahoma victory will call for a rematch of Bedlam in AT&T Stadium.

Ultimately, the loser of this game is knocked out of the national title picture. The Cowboys have won this game just three times in Stillwater since 1967, which could make Saturday a historic event for a series that is seemingly coming to an end.


Oklahoma Sooners

The Sooners fell out of favor with the College Football Playoff committee from the get-go, sporting an undefeated record but a rank of eighth.

That zero in the loss column did nothing to fool the committee after one-possession victories over Texas, West Virginia, Nebraska and Tulane. None of those teams are bowl eligible through Week 12.

This same Oklahoma team trailed Kansas in the fourth quarter and was stuffed on 50% of rush attempts against Baylor. Three Iowa State offensive turnovers were key in a one-possession victory for the Sooners.

Not a good Brock Purdy play, HAVOC by the Sooners@OU_Football | #BoomerSoonerpic.twitter.com/n4p1k5lXdM

— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) November 20, 2021

There are a number of issues on both sides of the ball that have contributed to the Sooners’ downward trajectory.

The numbers are elite on the offensive side with a top-30 rank in Success Rate and a mark of fifth in Finishing Drives, but the momentum-killing characteristics remain.

Six missed field goals and 27 sacks both rank in the bottom 35 in the country, with most of those sacks coming on passing downs. Fumble luck is certainly a part of the identity of the Sooners, as Oklahoma has 12 fumbles on the season and has recovered all but just one.

While the offense teeters with momentum-killer plays, the defense lacks any ability to stop opposing offenses. The Sooners defense is 96th in the country in creating three or more three-and-outs per game.

Opponents have almost double the national average of methodical drives against the Oklahoma defense, a stat defined as a 10-play possession by an offense.

Those numbers have been in steady decline for head coach Lincoln Riley’s team through the second half of the season.

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Oklahoma State Cowboys

The best coaching job in the country may belong to Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. His 4-2-5 scheme with a 23% blitz rate has been pure Havoc against opposing offenses.

No defense in the country generates as many three-and-outs or hard stops, the percentage of possessions in which the defense forces a turnover.

Devin Harper owes Jason Taylor after not being able to recover the fumble. #OKState pic.twitter.com/CnHuwFarnB

— Cody Nagel (@CodyNagel247) November 6, 2021

Playing the exact conference schedule as Oklahoma, the Pokes have created top-10 defensive ranks in almost every statistical category.

This is the top defense in the nation in limiting passing downs explosiveness. Only Georgia has allowed fewer red-zone attempts from opposing offenses. The Cowboys have been an impossible unit to score against, ranking 17th in opponent red-zone touchdown percentage.

The offense is where the questions begin for the Pokes, starting with the play of quarterback Spencer Sanders. The knock on the junior coming into the 2021 campaign was a lack of awareness in the pocket, mobility and decision-making.

His 15:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio is on pace to be the best of his career, which is an impressive feat after losing Tylan Wallace and Chuba Hubbard.

Sanders has a positive ratio in big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays and has had a dramatic shift in pocket awareness. Sanders has increased his adjusted completion percentage when blitzed from 60% in 2020 to 75% this season, near his rate when not blitzed.

Spencer Sanders throws it up to John Paul Richardson for the Oklahoma State TD. The Cowboys get into the end zone for the first time tonight.

OKLAHOMA STATE 13
TEXAS TECH 0

pic.twitter.com/rXLJ3dNXdx

— CFB Blitz (@BlitzCfb) November 21, 2021


Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma and Oklahoma State match up statistically:

Oklahoma Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 29 5
Line Yards 73 3
Pass Success 15 14
Pass Blocking** 40 29
Big Play 15 4
Havoc 84 2
Finishing Drives 5 7
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Oklahoma State Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 102 46
Line Yards 104 13
Pass Success 55 77
Pass Blocking** 79 7
Big Play 34 106
Havoc 35 39
Finishing Drives 60 54
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 54 62
Coverage 59 8
Middle 8 14 14
SP+ Special Teams 18 45
Plays per Minute 86 49
Rush Rate 51.7% (89) 61.% (20)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Betting Pick

The biggest handicap term in this edition of Bedlam is methodical drives. The ability to generate sustained drives that end in points will determine the winner of this game.

The offensive and defensive matchups are a wash on Finishing Drives, explosiveness and tackling. Both teams have even ranks in “Middle 8” and Standard Downs Success Rate as well.

The most important aspect is Havoc Allowed and momentum killer drive percentage.

Mike Gundy on freshman LB Collin Oliver, one of the best young pass rushers in the country:

"He's freakishly athletic" pic.twitter.com/fZyLK8EAnS

— Bryan Keating (@KOCOKeating) October 28, 2021

The Sooners are 84th in Havoc Allowed on offense, a direct statistic derived from 63 tackles for loss allowed and 12 offensive fumbles. Oklahoma ranks 74th in methodical drive rate but second in the nation in scoring drive percentage.

The Cowboys’ ability to stop explosive plays is crucial to keeping Caleb Williams off the field, as Oklahoma State is fifth in Defensive Standard Downs Sack Rate and the best in the nation in defending explosiveness on passing downs.

Methodical drives are important to the Cowboys offense, as Oklahoma allows 20% of opponent drives to last 10 or more plays. Sanders’ upgrade in the passing game, along with a decrease in fumbles from previous seasons, suggests Oklahoma will have a hard time getting the Pokes off the field.

Wide receiver Tay Martin ranks among the top 30 of all FBS players with a minimum of 70 targets and presents an issue for the cornerback position on the Sooners defense. Oklahoma does not have a single cornerback in the top 200 graded players, per PFF.

Both Jaden Davis and DJ Graham have combined for just four pass breakups on the season while giving up multiple plays over 50 yards.

The market has caught on to the explosiveness allowed by the Oklahoma State defense and the differences in this game. An opening spread of just a point in favor of the Cowboys has been steamed through the key number of three.

The Action Network projection makes the game Oklahoma State -3.5. In power ratings that exert more weight to recent performance, the Cowboys can be as high as six-point favorites.

The early market move is the correct one, with Oklahoma finding plenty of fumble luck while allowing opposing offenses to methodically drain clock and put points on the board.

With a tougher strength of schedule and strength of record, the Cowboys are properly favored.

Ultimately, Knowles’ Cowboy defense will get pressure on Williams, limit explosive plays and start the turnover regression against the Sooners.

Pick: Oklahoma State -3.5 or Better

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