College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Oregon vs. Washington: How to Bet This Pac-12 Matchup

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Oregon vs. Washington: How to Bet This Pac-12 Matchup article feature image
Credit:

Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Kayvon Thibodeaux.

  • No. 4 Oregon looks to extend its win streak to four as it faces Washington on the road.
  • The Ducks are touchdown favorites vs. Dylan Morris & Co.
  • Mike McNamara breaks down the Pac-12 affair and offers up his best bet.

Oregon vs. Washington Odds

Oregon Odds -7 (-110)
Washington Odds +7 (-110)
Moneyline -260 / +210
Over/Under 48 (-110 / -110)
Time Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV ABC
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings

I’m excited for this Pac 12 battle on national television Saturday night. These teams do not like each other.

Just ask Jimmy Lake.

Earlier in the week, the Washington head coach took a shot at Oregon when asked about the rivalry.

“The schools that we go against are way more; have academic prowess — like the University of Washington, Notre Dame, Stanford, USC. We go with a lot of battles toe-to-toe all the way to the end with those schools. So I think that’s made up a lot and pumped up in your world. In our world, we battle more academically prowess teams.”

Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal chose to not get involved, but school president Michael Schill fired back at Lake.

After COVID-19 canceled this game last year, these two teams will both be eager to get on the field and face the other.

Washington has had a disappointing season to date, but it’s won two in a row, and a win Saturday would put the Huskies over .500 for the first time this season.

Meanwhile, Oregon remains the Pac-12’s last hope at getting a representative in the College Football Playoff. The Ducks have the best win of any team in the country, but they did not do themselves any favors by letting the Stanford game slip away.


Oregon Ducks

It has been a pretty darn consistent season for the Ducks, aside from the fourth quarter against Stanford in Palo Alto. Oregon made a statement with its win in Columbus in Week 2 and has been the most complete team in the Pac-12 throughout the season.

Following the blemish against Stanford, the Ducks responded positively by beating Cal, UCLA and Colorado. They’re are still in complete control of their destiny in terms of a Pac-12 Championship.

Quarterback Anthony Brown remains the key to the success of the Ducks offense. Brown is dynamic as a runner and has found the end zone on the ground six times already this season.

Throwing the football has been where Oregon’s offense has been inconsistent. Brown struggled in a two-game stretch against Arizona and Stanford earlier this season, completing just 51% of his passes in those games. In his last three outings, that went up to over 70% of his passes and 282 yards per game.

On the ground, the Ducks currently rank 18th in Rush Success with Byron Cardwell and Travis Dye forming an explosive one-two punch.

Defensively, Oregon needs to be better at limiting big plays. The Ducks rank 114th in the nation in avoiding big plays, something that will come back to bite them down the road if they cannot clean some things up.

Star defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux should have plenty of motivation to wreak havoc in the Husky backfield in this rivalry game. Thibodeaux is the favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft, and there is not an offensive lineman on Washington’s roster who can block him one-on-one.

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Washington Huskies

Washington’s offensive struggles have been well-documented throughout the season. It has been an absolute mess for the Huskies on that side of the ball, but things have picked up a little bit in recent weeks.

Redshirt freshman Dylan Morris has been the guy under center all season, and his play has been very up-and-down. Morris has already thrown eight interceptions this season, but he took much better care of the ball in the Huskies’ last two wins over Arizona and Stanford.

The trouble for the Washington offense in this game will come up front. The Huskies rank 100th in Pass Blocking for the season, and they take a step up in competition this week against Thibodeaux and company. Morris needs time to make plays, and I don’t see him having much of it against this Oregon defense.

Lake has always been known for his defensive prowess, and Washington has been good on that side of the ball in recent weeks. It held Stanford quarterback Tanner McKee under 200 passing yards last week and picked him off twice.

The Huskies rank eighth in the country in defending the pass, and much of that can be credited to the star defensive back duo of Trent McDuffie and Kyler Gordon. These are two future pros who are very comfortable on their own island.

Stopping the Ducks rushing attack will be critical for Washington. If the Huskies do so, Brown could have his hands full throwing at these cornerbacks.


Oregon vs. Washington Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon and Washington match up statistically:

Oregon Offense vs. Washington Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 18 104
Line Yards 14 109
Pass Success 56 8
Pass Blocking** 55 62
Big Play 25 38
Havoc 9 95
Finishing Drives 15 50
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Washington Offense vs. Oregon Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 80 74
Line Yards 57 49
Pass Success 74 87
Pass Blocking** 100 24
Big Play 122 114
Havoc 63 77
Finishing Drives 54 49
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 105 45
Coverage 93 3
Middle 8 51 58
SP+ Special Teams 6 85
Plays per Minute 46 78
Rush Rate 56.% (59) 51.1% (91)

Oregon vs. Washington Betting Pick

Most of my bets throughout the season come on the side, where I look to identify the team that has the betting value.

Not in this game, though.

I simply don’t trust the Washington offense to back the Huskies with the points, and I am not comfortable laying seven with Oregon on the road in a rivalry game.

I think the value lies on the under at 51.5.

Morris and the Huskies offense are going to be extremely hard-pressed to consistently move the ball against the Oregon front. Washington lacks the explosive playmakers on the edge that you need to take advantage of the Ducks vulnerable secondary. Oregon will come after Morris, and I expect Oregon to force a lot of third-and-long situations.

On the other side of the ball, I trust Lake to have his defense flying around in a rivalry game. Oregon offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead knows that the Ducks’ advantages lie in the ground game, which will lead to long, methodical drives. The elite Washington secondary should be able to limit Brown’s effectiveness through the air and limit any Duck big plays.

Ultimately, I anticipate a hard-fought, lower-scoring affair in Seattle on Saturday night. Oregon is clearly the more talented team, so Washington will look to control the time of possession and bleed clock.

I’m locking in the under at 51.5 and would play it down to 49.

Pick: Under 51.5 (Play to 49)

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