Boston College vs Florida State Prediction, Picks: Saturday CFB Betting Preview
Pictured: Kam Arnold #5 of the Boston College Eagles. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Boston College vs Florida State Odds
| Boston College Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18.5 -110 | 48.5 -112o / -108u | +720 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18.5 -110 | 48.5 -112o / -108u | -1200 |
Florida State looks to continue building upon its best start since 2015 as it hosts Boston College.
Florida State has opened the season 3-0, including a victory over Louisville last Friday night. However, the victory came at a hefty cost, as the Seminoles lost several key players on both sides of the ball in that matchup.
Most importantly, quarterback Jordan Travis was seen in a walking boot during the second half after getting his ankle rolled up on earlier in the game. His status is unknown at this time, but he will be a crucial factor in this matchup.
Boston College is 1-2 after dropping contests to Rutgers and Virginia Tech in its first two weeks. The offense hasn’t looked in sync and will need to find some rhythm to keep this game within reach.
Though it’s only Week 4, this game feels like a must win for Boston College, as the Eagles want to avoid starting 0-2 in the extremely competitive ACC Atlantic division.
Boston College Eagles
Boston College has had a disappointing start to the 2022 season, winning just one of its first three games and starting 0-1 in conference play.
The struggles have started on the offensive end, where the Eagles' rushing attack has been non-existent. The group is averaging a measly 1.7 yards per carry while ranking 125th in Rushing Success Rate and 131st in Line Yards.
Boston College rushed for just 33 yards on 54 carries in its two games against Rutgers and Virginia Tech.
Phil Jurkovec hasn’t quite lived up to the hype that came when he announced he was returning for his fifth year with the Eagles. The former Notre Dame quarterback struggled against Rutgers and Virginia Tech, combining to complete 55% of his passes for an average of six yards per attempt.
Much of that blame can be attributed to an offensive line that lost all five starters over the offseason.
Similar to last season, the Eagles' defense has kept them competitive early on. Jeff Hafley is a defensive-minded coach, and the defense will likely determine the outcome of this game.
Boston College's opponents are converting just 33% of their third-down attempts, and the Eagles have racked up 12 sacks through the first three games.
The Eagles will also need to slow down a Seminoles rushing attack that ranks eighth in the nation in Success Rate.
Florida State Seminoles
Mike Norvell started last season by losing each of his first four games. He can completely flip the script on Saturday night by starting this year 4-0.
The Seminoles have had plenty of drama in the first quarter of the season. They snuck past LSU, as the Tigers missed an extra point to send the game into overtime.
LSU scores with one second left but has the XP blocked 😱
Florida State (+4, +155 ML) hangs on in a WILD gamepic.twitter.com/MOjxE8l7gE
— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) September 5, 2022
Last week, the Noles survived Louisville thanks to the two-headed monster of Treshaun Ward and Trey Benson in the backfield. The duo rushed for a combined 196 yards on 20 carries (9.8 YPC).
Florida State ranks 22nd in the nation with a Rush Rate of 61%. Boston College will surely be focused on stopping those two and forcing the Seminoles to beat it through the air.
But Florida State has found a new weapon in 6-foot-7 wide receiver Johnny Wilson. Through three games, Wilson is averaging 24 yards per reception and 87 yards per game. He's also scored a pair of touchdowns.
Florida State’s defense will need to key in on Eagles receiver Zay Flowers, the go-to target. Flowers has 22 receptions and three touchdowns, and is averaging just shy of 100 yards per game.
Boston College vs. Florida State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Boston College and Florida State match up statistically:
Boston College Offense vs. Florida State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 125 | 114 | |
| Line Yards | 131 | 122 | |
| Pass Success | 74 | 79 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 73 | 34 | |
| Havoc | 121 | 78 | |
| Finishing Drives | 75 | 77 |  |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Florida State Offense vs. Boston College Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 8 | 52 | |
| Line Yards | 23 | 37 | |
| Pass Success | 29 | 45 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 95 | 72 | |
| Havoc | 39 | 74 | |
| Finishing Drives | 57 | 47 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 23 | 113 |
| PFF Coverage | 86 | 35 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 110 | 109 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.6 (71) | 28.5 (103) |
| Rush Rate | 43.7% (115) | 61.1% (22) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Boston College vs. Florida State Betting Pick
There is no surprise as to why Florida State is favored in this matchup. The Seminoles have been red hot this season and rank 24th in Total Offense while averaging seven yards per play.
Meanwhile, Boston College’s offense has looked awful and is averaging just 4.7 yards per play.
The Seminoles’ victory over Louisville came at an expensive price, as they lost their top two players on each side of the ball to injury, including quarterback Travis and defensive end Jared Verse.
Travis’ status is unknown for this matchup, but I’m banking on him being out on Saturday night.
Backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker was able to put together a strong second half against Louisville, as he completed 6-of-10 passes for 109 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.
However, that came against a Cardinals' defense that was stacking the box and was unable to stop the Seminoles' rushing attack.
This number is just too high for a short-handed Florida State squad going up against a desperate Boston College squad.
Give me the three possessions with the Eagles, as their defense will keep them competitive in this matchup.
Pick: Boston College +17.5 (Play to +17)
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