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Maryland vs. Indiana Odds, Picks: Don’t Count Out Hoosiers in This Big Ten Affair

Maryland vs. Indiana Odds, Picks: Don’t Count Out Hoosiers in This Big Ten Affair article feature image
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Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Steinfeldt (Indiana)

  • Both Maryland and Indiana are desperate for a win in this Big Ten affair on Saturday afternoon.
  • The Terps have lost two of their last three while the Hoosiers have lost three straight.
  • Indiana didn't look poor last week against Michigan, though, so could it cover the spread in this one? Let's find out below.

Maryland vs. Indiana Odds

Saturday, Oct. 15
3:30 p.m. ET
ESPN2
Maryland Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-11.5
-104
62.5
-110o / -110u
-400
Indiana Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+11.5
-118
62.5
-110o / -110u
+310
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

We have a Big Ten East battle on Saturday afternoon in Bloomington. Both of these teams could really use a win, as Maryland has lost two of its last three and Indiana has dropped three in a row after starting 3-0.

Maryland had gotten off to a really nice start to begin the year, but the Terps gave back a lot of momentum last week when they came up two points short to Purdue at home.

Indiana was fortunate to start 3-0, and the law of averages has caught up with the Hoosiers in recent weeks.

Last week however, the Hoosiers put up a respectable effort at home against Michigan, a game that was all tied up in the third quarter before the Wolverines pulled away.

Maryland currently sits right around an 11.5-point road favorite in this contest, so let’s get into whether or not the Terps are equipped to cover that number.


Maryland Terrapins

Terrapins Offense

Maryland has had nice balance on offense thus far in 2022.

Taulia Tagovailoa is playing the best football of his career, shown by the fact that the junior is completing nearly 75% of his passes. He’s also taking better care of the football, which is something that has plagued him in the past.

The Terps have been getting a solid push up front from their offensive line, which has also helped buoy the offense. Maryland enters this game ranking 25th in Line Yards, and that comes with the Terps playing some legitimate defensive fronts in Michigan and Purdue.

Maryland has been pretty good in the red zone offensively as well, checking in at 21st in Finishing Drives. Continuing that trend will be important against an Indiana defense that has actually been pretty good at keeping opponents from scoring touchdowns.

Terrapins Defense

Last week was not this unit’s best performance, as the defense surrendered 31 points at home to Purdue. The Terps had been really strong in Defensive Finishing Drives, but the Boilermakers kind of had their way when they got around the goal line.

Maryland has been stout in stopping the run all season, and it will have an opportunity to really take advantage of that against an Indiana rushing attack that has been abysmal all season.

Lastly, another factor that is holding this defense back is its inability to generate turnovers and negative plays. Maryland is outside the top 85 in Havoc and has only had a positive turnover margin in two games all year.

If Maryland wants to pull away on Saturday afternoon, it will need more pressure in the backfield and probably a couple of takeaways.


Indiana Hoosiers

Hoosiers Offense

Indiana has been one-dimensional on offense all season, which is a large factor in why the Hoosiers struggle to put up points.

As noted earlier, Indiana simply can’t run the football right now.

Tom Allen just made a change with his offensive line coach, but that is likely too little too late for this season. Indiana needs to continue to attempt to run it to keep defenses honest, but it’s hard to see a massive increase in production.

Connor Bazelak has done some nice things through the air at times, but he has also been loose with the football on many occasions.

One thing to monitor will be the status of one of Bazelak’s best weapons in wide receiver D.J. Matthews Jr., who is currently listed as questionable.

If Matthews can go, it would be a significant boost to an IU passing attack that has shown flashes and could have some opportunity against a mediocre Maryland secondary.

Hoosiers Defense

Indiana plays really hard on the defensive end. The Hoosiers have been pretty strong when it comes to stopping the run and shouldn’t need to jam the box to slow down the Maryland rushing attack.

Tagovailoa and the Terps’ offense will sling it plenty either way, and an Indiana secondary that was hyped up to begin the year will need to step up to the challenge. The Hoosiers have allowed far too many explosive plays down the field to this point in the season.

Creating a turnover or two will also be paramount for Indiana to have a shot of winning this game. The Maryland offense has turned it over at least once in five of six games.

If IU can get pressure from its front four, then maybe some Havoc can be generated.

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Maryland vs. Indiana Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Maryland and Indiana match up statistically:

Maryland Offense vs. Indiana Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 73 33
Line Yards 25 50
Pass Success 39 123
Pass Blocking** 56 119
Havoc 52 86
Finishing Drives 21 37
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Indiana Offense vs. Maryland Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 96 45
Line Yards 129 47
Pass Success 97 64
Pass Blocking** 129 113
Havoc 80 90
Finishing Drives 112 19
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 26 94
PFF Coverage 60 106
SP+ Special Teams 6 32
Seconds per Play 26.8 (71) 18.6 (1)
Rush Rate 47.0% (106) 38.3% (129)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Maryland vs. Indiana Betting Pick

There is not much optimism around the football program in Bloomington right now. Basketball season is around the corner, and most of the Hoosier faithful have likely turned their focus to the hardwood.

That said, if there’s one thing that Allen has shown throughout his tenure, it’s that his teams will play hard and fight to the end.

This is too many points for lndiana to be getting at home against a Maryland team with plenty of flaws of its own. I believe the Hoosiers can find some chunk plays through the air, and Maryland has struggled to put away opponents all season.

Maryland is rightly favored in this football game, but back the Hoosiers to hang tough and cover the 11.5-point number.

Pick: Indiana +11.5 (Play to 11)

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