College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for San Jose State vs. Colorado State: Where Does The Value Lie in Mountain West Duel?

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for San Jose State vs. Colorado State: Where Does The Value Lie in Mountain West Duel? article feature image
Credit:

Matthew Holst/Getty Images. Pictured: Todd Centeio.

  • Colorado State hosts San Jose State in a Mountain West clash on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
  • The Rams are coming off a 10-point loss to highly-ranked Iowa, while the Spartans edged out New Mexico State.
  • Alex Hinton previews the matchup and offers up his best bet.

San Jose State vs. Colorado State Odds

San Jose State Odds +2.5 (-108)
Colorado State Odds -2.5 (-113)
Moneyline +114 / -137
Over/Under 45 (-112 / -109)
Time 3:30 p.m. ET
TV FS1
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Colorado State Rams will enter this one off a bye week but also, bitter about a missed opportunity.

Colorado State was up 14-7 at halftime against No. 5 Iowa and could have shaken up the college football world, only to be outscored 17-0 in the second half before falling 24-14.

Colorado State begins conference play at 1-3.

Meanwhile, San Jose has not been playing as well as it would have liked to open up the year. Sure, the Spartans 3-2, but they’re just 1-4 against the spread (ATS). They’re also yet to win consecutive games this season.

San Jose State will look to accomplish that for the first time this season in Fort Collins, where Colorado State has won three of the last five meetings.

Overall, Colorado State leads the all-time series 6-4.


San Jose State vs. Colorado State Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 9
3:30 p.m. ET
FS1

San Jose State Spartans

San Jose State Offense

Part of the reason for San Jose State’s inconsistencies this season is its struggles on offense.

The Spartans did manage to break out for 37 points against a dreadful New Mexico State defense. However, in the previous three games, the Spartans averaged 7.7 points per game.

Quarterback Nick Starkel has regressed without his leading receivers from last season. Starkel is completing 50.6% of his passes with six touchdowns and five interceptions.

San Jose State ranks 112th in Passing Success Rate.

Overall, it does not have much success running either, ranking 110th in Rushing Success Rate.


San Jose State Defense

Two things stand out about San Jose State on defense.

The Spartans excel at creating Havoc and limiting opponents’ scoring opportunities. San Jose State ranks 11th in Havoc and seventh in Finishing Drives.

Against Colorado State, the Spartans will have a significant advantage in both areas.

One area that San Jose State could stand to improve is forcing turnovers. The Spartans are tied for 116th with just three turnovers in their first five games.

On paper, this may not be the week for improvement in that area as Colorado State is 22nd in the FBS in fewest turnovers.

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Colorado State Rams

Colorado State Offense

Colorado State has not found a lot of success offensively this season, but good things usually happen when tight end Trey McBride touches the ball.

McBride leads the team with 36 receptions for 398 yards and his usage has increased while Colorado State battles injuries.

Top receiver Dante Wright has missed the last two games and his status for this game is unknown. The Rams also may be without leading rusher David Bailey.

If Bailey can’t go, quarterback Todd Centeio will have a larger burden carrying the offense with his throwing and running ability. Colorado State ranks 105th in Rushing Success Rate and 113 in Passing Success Rate.


Colorado State Defense

The Rams have made shutting down their opponents’ running game a point of emphasis this year.

Last time out, Colorado State held Iowa to 54 yards rushing. For the season, Colorado State ranks in the top 30 in rushing yards per game and yards per carry allowed as well as third in Rushing Success Rate.

The Rams also excel getting after the passer with the ninth-best pass-rushing grade, according to Pro Football Focus. Linebacker Mohamed Kamara leads the team with 3.5 sacks.

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San Jose State vs. Colorado State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Jose State and Colorado State match up statistically:

San Jose State Offense vs. Colorado State Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 110 3
Line Yards 92 128
Pass Success 112 121
Pass Blocking** 108 9
Big Play 34 92
Havoc 81 72
Finishing Drives 126 3
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Colorado State Offense vs. San Jose State Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 105 68
Line Yards 81 54
Pass Success 113 109
Pass Blocking** 89 43
Big Play 110 32
Havoc 46 11
Finishing Drives 116 7
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 57 51
PFF Coverage 42 91
Middle 8 45 65
SP+ Special Teams 27 63
Plays per Minute 62 11
Rush Rate 43.9% (118) 54.% (68)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


San Jose State vs. Colorado State Betting Pick

The line opened up at a pick’em and has shifted in favor of Colorado State at -2.5 as of Thursday afternoon. However, I can’t back this Rams offense, especially when it may be down two of its top three offensive playmakers.

Instead, I am taking the under.

Both defenses will have an advantage going against the other’s offense, particularly when it comes to finishing drives.

San Jose State is 126th in Finishing Drives offensively while Colorado State’s defense is third in the same category. Colorado State is 116th in Finishing Drives on offense while San Jose State is seventh defensively.

San Jose State wants to put the ball in the air and its nonexistent rushing attack will get shut down by Colorado State. The Rams’ pass rush will harass Starkel all game along without the threat of a running game.

Meanwhile, San Jose State’s defense has a clear advantage over Colorado State’s offense in most areas.

The under has hit in three of San Jose State’s five games and in three of four games for Colorado State.

PointsBet was still offering a total of 46, as of Thursday.

Pick: Under 46

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