San Jose State vs. Nevada Odds, Picks, Preview: Which Mountain West Team Has Value?
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- Nevada and San Jose State clash Saturday in a Mountain West contest.
- The Wolf Pack still have a shot at the title, while the Spartans have disappointed to a 5-4 record.
- Check out Kyle Remillard's betting guide for the game, including odds, a pick and a prediction below.
San Jose State vs. Nevada Odds
| San Jose State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | +310 |
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | -410 |
Nevada looks to keep its Mountain West title hopes alive as it welcomes San Jose State on Saturday night.
San Jose State hasn’t been able to reproduce the magical championship run it saw in 2020. The program sits at 5-4 on the season in large part due to quarterback Nick Starkel's arm injury. His return is questionable for this game after he was seen warming up on the sidelines last weekend.
Nevada has no concerns in its quarterback situation with Carson Strong putting together a prolific season, leading the Wolf Pack to a 6-2 record.
Nevada is one game back of Fresno State but will need some help to win the West Division in the Mountain West since it doesn't have the tiebreaker.
Nevada’s passing game has been dominant this season, but whether it can defend a dual-threat quarterback remains to be seen.
San Jose State Spartans
San Jose State Offense
Nick Nash has been the starting quarterback over the last five games with Starkel on the sidelines. He’s been efficient as a passer, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt and 250 yards per game. Nash has utilized his legs more recently and rushed for more than 100 yards in each of his last two games.
Nash's improvement has complemented the play of running back Tyler Nevens, who is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and has rushed for six touchdowns.
Derrick Deese Jr. was one of six players added to the Biletnikoff Award watch list this week. The tight end leads San Jose State with 36 receptions, 634 yards and three touchdowns.
The offense has shown improvement over its last two games with 27 points in each. The Spartans rushed for over 215 yards in both contests and look like they have found their groove with Nash under center.
San Jose State Defense
Pressuring Strong in the pocket is crucial for the San Jose State defense in this matchup.
The Spartans totaled 11 sacks in their first six games but have doubled that number over their last three games with three against both Wyoming and San Diego State and a season-high five against UNLV.
San Jose State ranks 28th in the nation in defending big plays this season. It's allowing 6.8 yards per pass attempt and has held opponents to just over 200 passing yards per game.
The defense should be able to shut down the Nevada run game, which ranks 112th in the nation in Success Rate. The Spartans have allowed 3.7 yards per carry and compiled 63 tackles for loss this season.
Defensive lineman Viliami Fehoko will be a terror for the Nevada offensive line with six sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss this season.
Nevada Wolf Pack
Nevada Offense
Strong has been nothing short of excellent this season with 24 touchdowns to five interceptions. He has completed 71% of his passes and is averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt while leading the Wolf Pack to the No. 4 ranking in Passing Success Rate.
The Pack feature a pass-heavy offense that ranks 99th in rush rate this season. Strong passed the ball 48 times against these Spartans last season and could muster only 5.4 yards per pass attempt.
The offensive line has been a concern as it ranks outside the top 100 in Line Yards and pass blocking. The San Jose State front seven will present a monumental challenge to this unit in protecting Strong.
Last week as a whole, Nevada was penalized 10 times against UNLV for 100 yards. It was the fourth time it has been flagged 10 or more times this season.
Nevada Defense
The Wolf Pack have allowed 24 points and nearly 380 yards of total offense per game this season. Their run defense ranks 122nd in Success Rate and has allowed 4.2 yards per carry against FBS opponents.
Nevada will have its hands full containing Nash's dual-threat ability. The Wolf Pack defense ranks 93rd in the nation in tackling, according to Pro Football Focus. Also, before facing the putrid UNLV offense, Nevada allowed 393 combined rushing yards to Hawaii and Fresno State.
Over the last six weeks, Nevada has continued to find itself in shootouts because of this defense. It has held only one opponent to fewer than 20 points in that span.
San Jose State vs. Nevada Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Jose State and Nevada match up statistically:
San Jose State Offense vs. Nevada Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 99 | 122 | |
| Line Yards | 94 | 102 | |
| Pass Success | 103 | 91 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 105 | 29 | |
| Big Play | 71 | 38 | |
| Havoc | 82 | 27 | |
| Finishing Drives | 84 | 97 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Nevada Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 112 | 67 | |
| Line Yards | 99 | 80 | |
| Pass Success | 4 | 54 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 102 | 43 | |
| Big Play | 16 | 28 | |
| Havoc | 37 | 22 | |
| Finishing Drives | 71 | 58 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 14 | 93 |
| Coverage | 41 | 27 |
| Middle 8 | 23 | 8 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 28 | 48 |
| Plays per Minute | 61 | 40 |
| Rush Rate | 49.9% (99) | 34.7% (128) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
San Jose State vs. Nevada Betting Pick
Nevada has faced one dual-threat quarterback this season in Kansas State’s Will Howard, and it allowed nearly 270 rushing yards and 5.6 yards per carry in that game. The Wildcats had four rushing touchdowns, including two from the quarterback.
SJSU will test the 93rd-ranked tackling unit of Nevada through the run game.
The Spartans' pass rush will constantly be in Strong’s face in this game and will test his ability to go down the field.
Another upset could be looming in the Mountain West this week.
Pick: San Jose State +10
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