College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Texas vs. Iowa State: Keep Your Eyes on Offenses on Saturday

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Texas vs. Iowa State: Keep Your Eyes on Offenses on Saturday article feature image
Credit:

Tim Warner/Getty Images. Pictured: Xavier Worthy (left) and Marcus Washington (right).

  • Texas has lost three straight games and now has to travel to Ames to face Iowa State.
  • Brock Prudy and Iowa State has found their groove since losing to Baylor, but fell last week on the road at West Virginia.
  • Brad Cunningham breaks down the matchup and offers up a best bet.

Texas vs. Iowa State Odds

Texas Odds +6.5 (-105)
Iowa State Odds -6.5 (-115)
Moneyline +200 / -250
Over/Under 60 (-110 / -110)
Time Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV FS1
Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet

Iowa State and Texas both look to salvage lost seasons when they meet in Ames on Saturday night.

The Longhorns have now lost three straight games to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor to drop to 4-4 on the season. They are now in danger of potentially not even being bowl eligible, so Steve Sarkisian’s team needs to find a way to right the ship.

Iowa State lost a heartbreaker in Morgantown last weekend despite out-gaining the Mountaineers by 117 yards on the ground.

The Cyclones currently sit at 3-2 in the conference and have an outside shot at making the Big 12 Championship game, but they will need to win their last four games and get some help.


Texas Longhorns

Texas Offense

The offensive side of the ball has not been the problem for the Longhorns this season. Texas is gaining 6.6 yards per play, which ranks 16th in the country.

However, with that being said, we’re starting to see some regression from the Longhorns, especially in the run game.

Bijan Robinson is obviously one of the most dynamic running backs in the country, but Texas is only 69th in EPA/Rush and 43rd in Rushing Success Rate. That is kind of pathetic when you have a running back that good.

.@Bijan5Robinson is really THAT GUY ūüĒ•

(via @TexasFootball)

pic.twitter.com/LplqAZhxVs

— 247Sports (@247Sports) October 12, 2021

Casey Thompson has really struggled in the last two losses to Oklahoma State and Baylor, as he averaged only 7.06 yards per attempt, had a passing grade below 75 and recorded four turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.

Texas overall for the season hasn’t been that efficient in the passing game either, as it is 58th in EPA/Pass and 59th in Passing Success Rate.

Iowa State is above average against both the run and the pass, so the regression for Texas offensively could continue on Saturday night.


Texas Defense

Texas has had all sorts of problems on the defensive side of the ball. The Longhorns are allowing 6.1 yards per play and are 96th in Success Rate Allowed.

A lot of Texas’ issues have come in the secondary, where it’s 105th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 97th in EPA/Pass.

Well, now the Longhorns will be going up against potentially the best quarterback they’ve seen all year outside of Caleb Williams in Brock Purdy.

Texas can’t really stop anyone on the ground either, and that’s one of the main reasons why it’s currently on a three-game losing streak. In their last three losses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor, the Longhorns allowed 790 yards and 5.97 yards per carry on the ground.

Now, they’ll be going up against one of the best running backs in college football in Breece Hall, so it’s a terrible matchup for the Texas defense.


Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State Offense

The Cyclones’ offense hasn’t really been what we expected at the beginning of the season.

However, Purdy has actually put up better numbers than he did in 2020. He’s averaging 8.4 yards per attempt — compared to 7.5 last season — and his passing grade is 82.6 this season, when it was 74.2 a season ago, per PFF.

Purdy is one of the best quarterbacks in the country in the intermediate passing game. He has a 90.7 passing grade and a 70.7 adjusted completion percentage on passes between 10 and 19 yards, per PFF.

That is the main reason why the Cyclones’ passing attack ranks 17th EPA/Pass attempt.

Brock Purdy hooks up with Tarique Milton for the longest pass play of the season at 68 yards.

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— Cyclone Football (@CycloneFB) October 30, 2021

The Iowa State rushing offense isn’t where it should be with Hall. Hall is gaining 5.5 yards per carry, but Iowa State sits 66th in Rushing Success Rate, 74th in Offensive Line Yards and 62nd in EPA/Rush.

However, this is the worst run defense the Cyclones have faced since Kansas on Oct. 2.


Iowa State Defense

The Cyclones have really been struggling in the secondary, as they’ve given up over 8.0 yards per attempt to Oklahoma State’s Spencer Sanders and West Virginia’s Jarret Doege the last two games.

Overall for the season, they’ve been below average, ranking 76th in EPA/Pass and 89th in Passing Success Rate Allowed. They are also allowing 7.4 yards per attempt.

Even though Thompson has struggled as of late, he should be able to throw on the Cyclones’ defense.

The front seven is only allowing 3.2 yards per carry, but it’s due for some regression because the Cyclones are 52nd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 47th in Defensive Line Yards and 35th in EPA/Rush.

This is not a top-20 run defense in the country and Robinson should have a lot of success on the ground on Saturday night.

Additionally, Iowa State has been really poor at keeping opponents out of the end zone once they cross the 40-yard line. Iowa State ranks 83rd in Finishing Drives, so Texas should be able to find the end zone once it gets into Iowa State territory.


Texas vs. Iowa State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas and Iowa State match up statistically:

Texas Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 49 52
Line Yards 30 47
Pass Success 59 89
Pass Blocking** 86 55
Big Play 90 47
Havoc 32 58
Finishing Drives 24 83
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Iowa State Offense vs. Texas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 66 85
Line Yards 74 59
Pass Success 39 105
Pass Blocking** 57 89
Big Play 67 58
Havoc 26 104
Finishing Drives 46 107
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 68 55
Coverage 64 57
Middle 8 17 13
SP+ Special Teams 8 52
Plays per Minute 66 110
Rush Rate 59.8% (34) 52.8% (82)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Texas vs. Iowa State Betting Pick

I think the total for this game is a little too low considering how bad both of these defenses have been this season. Both defensive units have a lot of problems in the secondary right now, and both of these passing attacks are just waiting to break out.

This is the game to do it.

I have 68.29 points projected for this game, so I think there’s some value on over 60 points. I would play it up to 61.5.

Pick: Over 60 (Play to 61.5)

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