College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Texas Tech vs. West Virginia: How to Bet Saturday’s College Football Showdown (Oct. 2)

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Texas Tech vs. West Virginia: How to Bet Saturday’s College Football Showdown (Oct. 2) article feature image
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  • Texas Tech and West Virginia meet in Big 12 college football action on Saturday afternoon.
  • The Mountaineers enter the game as touchdown favorites, but a potential quarterback injury has muddied up to picture in Lubbock.
  • Alex Hinton breaks down the Big 12 game below and shares a betting pick and prediction based on his analysis.

Texas Tech vs. West Virginia Odds

Texas Tech Odds +7
West Virginia Odds -7
Moneyline +225 / -280
Over/Under 55 (-105 / -115)
Time 3:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN2
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Texas Tech and West Virginia both enter this matchup coming off losses, albeit still heading in opposite directions.

Texas Tech started out 3-0 with wins over Houston, Stephen F. Austin and FIU. The Red Raiders were a trendy pick to cover against Texas last week, if not pull out the outright win.

However, the Red Raiders ran into a buzzsaw in Austin, losing 70-35. To make matters worse, starting quarterback Tyler Shough broke his collarbone and will be out until November.

West Virginia lost its season opener to Maryland, 30-24, before demolishing Long Island University 66-0. The Mountaineers hung on against rival Virginia Tech, 27-21, and last week, took Oklahoma to the brink falling 16-13 on a last-second field goal.

There are no moral victories, but you have to think West Virginia has some momentum after nearly upsetting Oklahoma.


Texas Tech vs. West Virginia Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 2
3:30 p.m. ET
ESPN2

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech Offense

Shough going down comes at a tough time for the Red Raiders as the Oregon transfer was playing at a high level.

Shough was completing close to 70% of his passes with six touchdowns and three interceptions. He led the Red Raiders to a Passing Success Rate that ranked fifth.

Not all hope is lost, though. Backup Henry Colombi has starting experience and played well in relief of Shough last week.

Starting running back Tahj Brooks missed the Texas game with a leg injury and is likely to be out again. Brooks is a key loss as he averages over eight yards per carry.

Being down their starting backfield will make things difficult on the Red Raiders against a stingy West Virginia defense.


Texas Tech Defense

The Red Raiders’ defense had been solid through the first three games, allowing 21.3 PPG and forcing five turnovers.

However, in their first test against a Power Five opponent, the Red Raiders gave 639 yards and 70 points. After allowing Texas to score the first nine times it touched the ball — including on all six trips to the red zone — the Red Raiders now ranked 124th in Finishing Drives.

Senior linebacker Riko Jeffers is the anchor of this unit. He’s currently third on the team in tackles with 20 and has recorded both a sack and an interception.

Wisconsin transfer Reggie Pearson Jr. has become an impact player at safety, as he’s second on the team with 22 tackles and has an interception.

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West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia Offense

The Mountaineers’ offense starts with a backfield tandem of quarterback Jarret Doege and running back Leddie Brown.

Doege is completing 62% of his passes with six touchdowns and four interceptions while Brown has 321 yards rushing and five touchdowns on about five yards per carry.

Brown could use more support from a West Virginia offensive line that ranks 116th in Line yards and 87th in Havoc allowed.

Against Oklahoma, West Virginia’s offense couldn’t match the stellar play from its defense. The Mountaineers had an overall Success Rate of 39.7% and only mustered 3.9 yards per play.


West Virginia Defense

Very quietly, head coach Neal Brown has been building one of the best defense in the country in Morgantown.

The Mountaineers rank in the top 25 nationally in scoring defense and yards per play allowed.

Last week, West Virginia frustrated Oklahoma by keeping everything in front of them. The Sooners were only able to create big plays on 3.13% of their offensive snaps and averaged less than five yards per play overall. It got to the point where Oklahoma fans were calling for quarterback Spencer Rattler to be benched.

The Mountaineers are effective at getting to the quarterback as they have 14 sacks in their first four games.

Defensive end Taijh Alston leads the team with 3.5 sacks while defensive tackle Dante Stills (two sacks) is a disruptive force in the middle and an NFL prospect.


Texas Tech vs. West Virginia Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas Tech and West Virginia match up statistically:

Texas Tech Offense vs. West Virginia Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 67 21
Line Yards 62 18
Pass Success 5 49
Pass Blocking** 60 89
Big Play 37 1
Havoc 42 35
Finishing Drives 8 12
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

West Virginia Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 65 113
Line Yards 116 76
Pass Success 81 44
Pass Blocking** 44 82
Big Play 62 84
Havoc 87 50
Finishing Drives 39 124
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 109 8
PFF Coverage 48 82
Middle 8 66 13
SP+ Special Teams 17 72
Plays per Minute 63 80
Rush Rate 51.9% (80) 50.9% (90)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Texas Tech vs. West Virginia Betting Pick

Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells has beaten West Virginia in each of his first two years on the job. Texas Tech has never beaten West Virginia three years in a row and I don’t think 2021 will mark the first time.

West Virginia’s defense matches up well with Texas Tech’s offense. The Red Raiders will have a hard time running against a Mountaineers’ defense that ranks 21st in Offensive Success Rate and 18th Line Yards.

That will keep the Red Raiders behind the sticks and allow the Mountaineers’ pass rush to pin its ears back and get after Colombi.

On the other side, Brown should have a big day against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders rank 113th in Rushing Success Rate defensively. Texas Tech is also far from the best tackling team in the country, so that’ll be an issue against the 216-pound Brown.

When West Virginia crosses the forty, it will be able to turn its scoring drives into touchdowns as Texas Tech ranks 124th in Finishing Drives defensively.

Converting its scoring opportunities into touchdowns will not only help West Virginia win the game, but also cover the spread.

I’m locking in West Virginia at -7 on WynnBET.

Pick: West Virginia -7 (-116)

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