College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for UMass vs. Coastal Carolina: Can The Minutemen Cover Again?

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for UMass vs. Coastal Carolina: Can The Minutemen Cover Again? article feature image
Credit:

Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images. Pictured: Grayson McCall.

  • No. 17 Coastal Carolina hosts UMass as it looks to improve to 4-0 on the season.
  • The Chants only beat Buffalo by three, while the Minutemen were crushed by Eastern Michigan last week.
  • Alex Kolodziej breaks down the duel and makes his pick.

UMass vs. Coastal Carolina Odds

UMass Odds +36
Coastal Carolina Odds -36
Moneyline +3500 / -10000
Over/Under 66
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Only Alabama and Ohio State in the Top 25 are projected to win by more this weekend than Coastal Carolina.

Under head coach Jamey Chadwell, the Chanticleers are riding an impressive heater dating back to 2019. They’re a three-point loss to Liberty in last year’s bowl game away from ripping off 16 consecutive victories.

Naturally, Coastal’s been money in just about every situation imaginable.

The program’s 6-1-1 against the spread in the last eight at home and has a knack for embarrassing poor teams, covering 10 of the last 14 against opponents with losing records.

Bettors won’t find many punching bags in college football with as much wear-and-tear as UMass.

However, the Minutemen are catching big numbers on a weekly basis. Starting out with five-plus touchdowns is a huge cushion — even if you’re viewed as the third-worst team in the entire country in our Power Ratings.


UMass vs. Coastal Carolina Betting Preview

Saturday, Sept. 25
1 p.m. ET
ESPN+

Massachusetts Minutemen

UMass Offense

If you aren’t competitive, at least score some points.

UMass, at minimum, has that going for it. Although the Minutemen have yet to win a game in 2021, they’re a perfect 3-0 to the over.

They’ve magically scored 28 points in back-to-back games entering Week 4. For context, the Minutemen had totaled 56 points in the prior seven games combined, a span that dates back to 2019.

Talk about a much-needed slump-buster.

UMass has been an underdog of 22 points or more in all three games in 2021. Still, the offense has posted a respectable 5.4 yards per play, a year after recording a measly 3.3.


UMass Defense

Whenever a team draws UMass on the schedule, it can go ahead and pencil in how many points it wants to score.

The Minutemen defense is truly the gift that keeps on giving.

They’ve allowed 13 of the last 14 opponents to score more than 40 points. The last time the unit failed to hold an opponent under 28 was in Oct. 2018 against UConn, which should have been relegated to the FCS years ago.

UMass can’t tackle (92nd nationally) and it can’t cover a soul in the passing game (115th). That’s a terrible recipe against one of the most efficient offenses in the nation.

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Coastal Carolina Offense

The list of mid-majors capable of stopping Coastal Carolina’s innovative, spread-option offense is few and far between.

Frankly, UMass stands no chance.

Quarterback Grayson McCall has been brilliant for the Chants, posting 40 total touchdowns and just three interceptions spanning back to the start of last season.

Coastal rates in the top 20 in both passing and rushing success, pass blocking and Finishing Drives. The unit tends to get points-y against inferior opponents, going over the total in eight of the last nine vs. teams with losing records.


Coastal Carolina Defense

Coastal’s struggled to create chaos, ranking outside the top 100 in havoc. Another weak spot for the Chants has been the rush defense (5.1 yards per carry allowed, 102nd nationally), but can UMass afford to establish the run as a 36-point underdog?

Probably not.

The Chanticleers gave up 5.6 yards a clip on the ground to Buffalo last weekend. However, things lighten up against UMass freshman quarterback Brady Olson, who’s registered five touchdowns and three picks this fall.


UMass vs. Coastal Carolina Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UMass and Coastal Carolina match up statistically:

UMass Offense vs. Coastal Carolina Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
38
84
Line Yards
83
53
Pass Success
85
37
Pass Blocking**
107
32
Big Play
67
Havoc
63
103
Finishing Drives
59
68
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Coastal Carolina Offense vs. UMass Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
16
117
Line Yards
68
64
Pass Success
2
122
Pass Blocking**
11
130
Big Play
122
Havoc
19
115
Finishing Drives
22
110
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling
92
9
PFF Coverage
115
79
Middle 8
55
20
SP+ Special Teams
127
129
Plays per Minute
84
98
Rush Rate
47.9% (105)
63.8% (20)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


If you haven’t watched Coastal’s offense yet, do yourself a favor and make an appointment this weekend. The Chants’ option offense is a work of art and the aesthetics will amplify tenfold against a defense vastly outmatched by Coastal’s athleticism in the skill corps.


UMass vs. Coastal Carolina Betting Pick

The first-half over is a juicy play.

UMass and its opponents have gone over the total in all three games despite the Minutemen averaging a gut-wrenching 2.3 points per half. They’ve played against Pitt and Boston College, so a Coastal Carolina defense that’s in the middle of the pack nationally shouldn’t necessarily be overwhelming.

Frankly, three points in the opening half from Walt Bell’s club might be enough as the defense ranks 101st in first-half points allowed this season (19.3).

Meanwhile, the Chanticleers’ offense is averaging 21 points per game in the first half, just outside the top 20 nationally.

Coastal dropped one spot in the AP Poll last weekend after a close win over Buffalo. Look for McCall & Co. to score on every single possession in the first half, before the starters unwind the tape and unbuckle their shoulder pads on the sidelines in the second.

Pick: 1H Over 37 (Play to 37.5 at 115)

How would you rate this article?